ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Shouldnt this NW turn be starting soon? The track is really counting on a quick turn to keep this thing away from the bahamas and florida.

[AdamFirst]

http://www.weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

Radar blackout for an hour and a half or so as the southern eyewall scraped Anguilla and St. Maarten

[WmE]

Looking very good right now. Not surprised if it would approach Cat4 very soon.

[SkeetoBite]

Let's not forget that Earl will not arrive at the 72hr forecast point, stop, and then move to the 96hr forecast point. The curve is in there somewhere and in this forecast, it is closer to shore than the plot points make it appear. As always, the track will shift. Be prepared and be safe-

[CrazyC83]

Remember, as intense as "Earl" might be heading up the east coast, even if the center stays just 100 miles east of land then the impacts to land will be minimal. The impacts on the west side of a storm are always over exaggerated.

Thank you FOX13, but "always" is a very strong word. I lived in NOLA during Katrina and we were on the west side of the storm.

It depends how far to the west you are. If just to the west, you would get hit hard. But it doesn't spread as far west as east, especially at higher latitudes with the storm moving faster. Baton Rouge didn't even see hurricane conditions in Katrina.

[AdamFirst]

It depends how far to the west you are. If just to the west, you would get hit hard. But it doesn't spread as far west as east, especially at higher latitudes with the storm moving faster. Baton Rouge didn't even see hurricane conditions in Katrina.

Yeah, and using Katrina as another comparison, there was heavy damage as far east as Pensacola, Florida.

[invest man]

great point skeetobite, but could you give more details for those that may be here from east nc! IM

[Crostorm]

Web cam view from above Leverick Bay looking North across the Leverick Bay Resort and Marina and North Sound to Anegada.



http://leverickbay.org/webcam.htm

[eastcoastFL]

With the storms current movement and intenisty and I dont understand why floridians are not slightly concerned. Jeanne taught me a lesson about looking and trusting forcast tracks. I dont believe anything until the turn has started and the storm has started heading away from us.

[CrazyC83]

It depends how far to the west you are. If just to the west, you would get hit hard. But it doesn't spread as far west as east, especially at higher latitudes with the storm moving faster. Baton Rouge didn't even see hurricane conditions in Katrina.

Yeah, and using Katrina as another comparison, there was heavy damage as far east as Pensacola, Florida.

Fortunately, the RFQ should mostly or entirely be over water, although if the storm gets TOO big and misses too much, Bermuda enters the picture as well.

Baton Rouge was about 80 miles from the eye of Katrina at closest approach, while Pensacola was about 160 miles away, so it spreads over twice as far to the east as to the west. Still with Earl, places like eastern NC, Hampton Roads, eastern Long Island and southeast New England have to really watch since they don't have much or any room to work with (especially the Outer Banks).

[CronkPSU]

With the storms current movement and intenisty and I dont understand why floridians are not slightly concerned. Jeanne taught me a lesson about looking and trusting forcast tracks. I dont believe anything until the turn has started and the storm has started heading away from us.

this guy right here is still more than slightly concerned

[ham3ice]

Are there any factors coming off the US mainland that could effect Earl's path, perhaps pushing it further east?

[Acral]

With the storms current movement and intenisty and I dont understand why floridians are not slightly concerned. Jeanne taught me a lesson about looking and trusting forcast tracks. I dont believe anything until the turn has started and the storm has started heading away from us.

Agreed. Until we see the hard turn to the north, I think Floridians should at least "keep an eye" on the storm.

[CrazyC83]

Are there any factors coming off the US mainland that could effect Earl's path, perhaps pushing it further east?

The cold front expected to cross into the region late this week. It is what is supposed to recurve it late.

[JPmia]

looks like storm surge to me.

http://leverickbay.org/webcam.htm

[CJPILOT]

This little wobble south means the PR is going to get roughed up a bit.

[sevenleft]

This little wobble south means the PR is going to get roughed up a bit.

Recon shows that the eye has moved further north, not south, since the previous fix.

[CJPILOT]

This little wobble south means the PR is going to get roughed up a bit.

Recon shows that the eye has moved further north, not south, since the previous fix.

Recon can take over an hour to run a plot, you might want to take a look at the last few radar frames...

[Javlin]

Overall movement looks about 280' to me and this is kinda starting to remind me of Floyd?getting close to FL then to the OBX.

[RevDodd]

Are there any factors coming off the US mainland that could effect Earl's path, perhaps pushing it further east?

This ridge that's keeping folks in eastern NC temps above normal this week should begin to break down, and a trough should give Earl an easy path. If the trough is faster, Earl turns sooner. If not ... well, that's why we're watching.