ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Florida1118]

NWS Miami-

THE LONG RANGE MODELS TAKE THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH
TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS KEEPING
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PLEASE REFER TO THE HURRICANE OUTLOOK
STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

NWS Key West-
IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROODING AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN
WILL BE ABLE TO DRAFT NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE KEYS AREA.
THIS EVOLUTION JUSTIFIES AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL PICK UP TO GENTLE TO MODERATE AS
THE AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SHIFTS CLOSER TO CUBA.

NWS Jacksonville-
DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN LOOKS TO REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA.

[blp]

The system is still quite elongated.

[dixiebreeze]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 09 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-130

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.0N 82.0W AT 11/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

[Florida1118]

30 more min until update...

[Florida1118]

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO THE
NORTHWESTERN WATERS OFF JAMAICA...TO 17N80W TO A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N81W...TO 11N81W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN GREAT INAGUA NEAR
THE CAICOS PASSAGE AND SAN ANDRES ISLAND OF COLOMBIA IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

[Florida1118]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[T'Bonz]

i suspect the lack of florida posters logged in at the moment is an indication that many of them have switched to a "show me the money" sentiment which is certainly understandable in light of what has (or has not) happened this season.

Florida is around and watching the area warily. She remembers Wilma.

[fci]

i suspect the lack of florida posters logged in at the moment is an indication that many of them have switched to a "show me the money" sentiment which is certainly understandable in light of what has (or has not) happened this season.

Florida is around and watching the area warily. She remembers Wilma.

I believe that many also remember the "the models show 3 storms in 2-3 weeks" scare from a couple of weeks ago too.
People here are vigilant as the memories of Wilma, Frances and Jeanne are still pretty fresh but I think we are also in the "I'll believe it when I see it" mode too.
There is nothing wrong with that....

[jinftl]

What is interesting is that the 0600z models are showing a looping system meandering over nicaragua and honduras....some of these same models suggested the cuba-bahamas tracks just 6 hours before.

Way too soon to speculate on the level of threat for south florida....obviously a potential system developing in the nw caribbean will get our interest this time of year, but there are so many unknowns at this point. Until Channel 7 News in Miami texts me the "Cone of My Phone", which would mean south florida is a 5-day cone, it's all sunshine and 86 degree days for now.

On a side note, having been in 2 tropical storm warnings so far this season, we are, in some ways, veterans this season to being in a 'cone'....luckily the cone's have turned out more like ice cream and less like bullhorns in impact.

i suspect the lack of florida posters logged in at the moment is an indication that many of them have switched to a "show me the money" sentiment which is certainly understandable in light of what has (or has not) happened this season.

Florida is around and watching the area warily. She remembers Wilma.

I believe that many also remember the "the models show 3 storms in 2-3 weeks" scare from a couple of weeks ago too.
People here are vigilant as the memories of Wilma, Frances and Jeanne are still pretty fresh but I think we are also in the "I'll believe it when I see it" mode too.
There is nothing wrong with that....

[HURAKAN]

10/0545 UTC 12.5N 81.9W T1.5/1.5 98L

no change

[DanKellFla]

I haven't gone to get gas for my generator yet. I'll keep an eye out on the models. So far, I am not too concerned and the models haven't really converged on a solution yet.

[GCANE]

New burst starting to fire up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Looks like it will be another high rain-rate cell.

This time it's even closer to the LLC - inside the inner ADT bulls-eye.

Not bad this close to Nicaragua and Honduras at this time of day.

This could ramp up this afternoon when daytime surface heating over land could spark some convection which may aid 98L's development.

[GCANE]

That cell just off the SW Jamaica shore is intriguing.

It is refiring as well.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... verlay=off

Firing in about 15 +/- 5 knots of shear.

Not quite sure if this is just an MCS.

[GCANE]

Nice unstable air.

CAPE about 1500 to 2700 in the surrounding air.

Lifted Indexes around -3 to -5 over water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[cyclonic chronic]

looks like CDO is increasing. wouldnt that be something. no real storms in Fl. this season, but now that the roads are filling up with those damn out-of-state plates.....lol, welcome back!

it will be interesting to see what the t.v. mets say tommrow A.M. if this does develop it's gonna catch the general public off gaurd. the attitude around here is now that we've had dry, cool air for the last week or so, the season is over. the good thing is that the gulf is cooling off rapidly ,76F now down from 82F about a week ago.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[wxman57]

As far south as 98L is, and the fact that it's not moving any to the north, may suggest that the latest models are correct in forecasting a slow westward track and inland into CA.

[cycloneye]

GCANE,you said that area close to Jamaica was intriging. Here is the radar from Jamaica from yesterday afternoon to early Sunday morning.Loop the image where it says play.

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage1.asp

[GCANE]

Thanks for the radar loop Cycloneye.

Looks like it is at the north-end of the surface trough.

Latest ASCAT:

[wxman57]

Offshore obs have winds from the ENE-E at 15-20 kts on the southern end of that convection south of Jamaica. That means nothing at the surface. Pressures are higher there than near 98L.