WTPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 24.5N 130.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 130.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 26.1N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.2N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 31.0N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 34.6N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 39.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 42.6N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 42.7N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 129.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE (IR) IMAGERY REVEALS
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TYPHOON 08W, WHICH FORMED AN EYE NEAR 30/16Z.
THE CURRENT POSITION AND 12 HOUR MOTION ARE BASED (WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE) ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE IN IR, AS WELL AS A DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE IN BOTH A 301621Z 85 GHZ TRMM AND A 301705Z 36 GHZ
AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES OF 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS TY 08W IS EXPERIENCING ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS STRONG GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS OUTFLOW FROM TS 09W (NAMTHEUN) IS IMPINGING OUTFLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF TY 08W. TY KOMPASU IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED SOUTH OF JAPAN AND IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY
SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING OKINAWA, JAPAN. TY 08W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) NEAR TAU 72 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ET NEAR
TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (NAMTHEUN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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