ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[TwisterFanatic]

Woah! This thing looks 100 times better than last night.

[SouthFloridawx]

AL, 92, 2010080612, , BEST, 0, 155N, 830W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al922010.invest

[srainhoutx]

Not surprised the reactivated.

[lrak]

AL, 92, 2010080612, , BEST, 0, 155N, 830W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al922010.invest

It looks more like 16.5north.

You bet Portastorm, I'm a "wishin" it to the BOC!

[wxman57]

Could form and then move into the YUC, then to the BOC and have yet another Mexico storm?

That's what I'm thinking. They contacted me last night from work asking if we should consider it dead. I told them I never call a system dead until it moves inland into the Yucatan. Disturbances always flare up before moving into the Yucatan.

I think this one will move into the Yucatan near northern Belize then WNW across the BoC and inland near Tampico. I don't see anything to bring it into the central or northern Gulf. Pretty strong ridge over TX/LA.

Fair chance of developing in BoC. Don't think there will be time before it moves into the Yucatan tonigth/tomorrow. Maybe 40%.

[SouthFloridawx]

Could form and then move into the YUC, then to the BOC and have yet another Mexico storm?

That's what I'm thinking. They contacted me last night from work asking if we should consider it dead. I told them I never call a system dead until it moves inland into the Yucatan. Disturbances always flare up before moving into the Yucatan.

I think this one will move into the Yucatan near northern Belize then WNW across the BoC and inland near Tampico. I don't see anything to bring it into the central or northern Gulf. Pretty strong ridge over TX/LA.

Fair chance of developing in BoC. Don't think there will be time before it moves into the Yucatan tonigth/tomorrow. Maybe 40%-50%.

Is it because of the higher heat content in the NW Caribbean?

[lrak]

Wxman57 so no rain up here, we should get some swell right?

Thanks

[ColinDelia]

AL, 92, 2010080612, , BEST, 0, 155N, 830W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

x marks the spot.

So on the south side of the convection

[wxman57]

No, not the high heat content, just somewhat favorable upper-level winds. Nothing from this one in Houston, I'm afraid.

I'd look at 16.5N/84.5W not 15.5 and 83W.

[thetruesms]

No, not the high heat content, just somewhat favorable upper-level winds. Nothing from this one in Houston, I'm afraid.

I'd look at 16.5N/84.5W not 15.5 and 83W.

Yeah, it looks much more like things are wrapping up there than where best track is at right now. The flow near the Honduran coast definitely caught my eye.

[floridasun78]

but look like wont be td before landfall

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 675 MILES
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL-ORGANIZED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Macrocane]

It seems that the NHC still thinks it will move over Central America, I think that the energy may split and part may move over Central America and the other over Yucatan.

I don't see very much of it moving into Honduras. Maybe NHC is considering the southern Yucatan (Belize?) "Central America"? Technically, I suppose Belize is Central America, but Mexico is right on the other side of it.

[Sanibel]

The curvature speaks for itself.

[canes04]

10% at 2pm. Seems kinda of low to me, I would say 50% since it appears to be moving NW at this time.
The faster it develops it may move more NW into gulf.

[TexasF6]

92L is back!!! wxman---our local guy is talking about cold front? we may get showers in Austin today? 92l looks like her center is reforming a bit north, and the Austin FD said that high was going to dance around this weekend? So whats the outlook should this thing ramp up?

[hurricaneCW]

It's looking pretty good. I agree that 10% is kind of low, but seeing that it's likely to hit the Yucatan, it makes sense.

[TwisterFanatic]

[mattpetre]

I am a total weather novice but I don't see evidence of the incredibly stron TX high on most of the models. What is happening here and why won't this get into the GOM proper?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010080618, , BEST, 0, 163N, 846W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest