ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[SFLcane]

Don't really like to use the NAM gatorcane for the tropics. Here is the 12utc intensity output.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The NAM is a non-tropical regional forecasting model and should not be used for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis.

[Bocadude85]

Don't really like to use the NAM gatorcane for the tropics. Here is the 12utc intensity output.
http://i27.tinypic.com/20s3mb.jpg

According to that we should have tropical storm Bonnie in 24 hours... I doubt that will happen

[floridasun78]

why are model taking this up hurr by friday ?? are model having issue with 97l?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

why are model taking this up hurr by friday ?? are model having issue with 97l?

The SHIPS has wind shear over 97L at the moment at just 17 knots, and decreasing to just 6 knots by 18z later today. Plus, 97L has very warm SSTs and OHC ahead of its self to help strengthening. The only problem 97L will be having is mid-level dry air which shouldn't pose a major problem in its intensification or decay. At this point the eastern coast of Florida should be preparing for a possible minimal hurricane, similar to Katrina (2005) in intensity when it made landfall in Miami-Dade county.

[floridasun78]

why are model taking this up hurr by friday ?? are model having issue with 97l?

The SHIPS has wind shear over 97L at the moment at just 17 knots, and decreasing to just 6 knots by 18z later today. Plus, 97L has very warm SSTs and OHC ahead of its self to help strengthening. The only problem 97L will be having is mid-level dry air which shouldn't pose a major problem in its intensification or decay. At this point the eastern coast of Florida should be preparing for a possible minimal hurricane, similar to Katrina (2005) in intensity when it made landfall in Miami-Dade county.

i have problem my mom coming back from LA on friday 10:30pm that could be delay

[Bocadude85]

why are model taking this up hurr by friday ?? are model having issue with 97l?

The SHIPS has wind shear over 97L at the moment at just 17 knots, and decreasing to just 6 knots by 18z later today. Plus, 97L has very warm SSTs and OHC ahead of its self to help strengthening. The only problem 97L will be having is mid-level dry air which shouldn't pose a major problem in its intensification or decay. At this point the eastern coast of Florida should be preparing for a possible minimal hurricane, similar to Katrina (2005) in intensity when it made landfall in Miami-Dade county.

I dont think people need to be preparing for a hurricane when all we currently have is a tropical wave interacting with a ULL

[bvigal]

i see few here saying this not thing worry other say we could see hurr why not everyone agree some downcasting other upcasting let one know post if not we break record most posts on storm2k in here

Floridasun78, I understand your frustration and worry about your Mom's return. But, this uncertainty and varying opinions are what you will ALWAYS see on this board. Predicting cyclone development, path, timing, intensity, is not an exact science. It is like going to a sport board and wanting the experts to tell you if your favorite team is going to win this weekend, and the point spread. Some experts say win by big margin, some will say lose by big margin, and others will represent everything in the middle. No one knows for sure.

1. get a big glass jar set it on the table
2. take off the lid
3. gently fill it with smoke
4. put on the lid

Now, before you pick up the jar and shake it, make a prediction of where in the jar the smoke will rise, fall, turn counterclockwise, turn clockwise, mix, etc.

Multiply that times the size of the earth and it's atmosphere, and the uncertainties, even with today's complex computer models, become easier to understand. This is, of course, a gross over-simplification, as on the earth are multiple heating and cooling factors that your glass jar doesn't have.

[gatorcane]

Interesting HPC discussion the models in handling synoptics over North America:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
140 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

VALID 12Z THU JUL 22 2010 - 12Z MON JUL 26 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN CONTINUES TO VERIFY BEST FOR
STANDARD ANOMALY CORRECTED SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES...SOUTHERN CANADA...AND NORTHERN MEXICO AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUN FOR ITS MONEY FROM THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF OR UKMET. THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN PERFORM LOWER
AS A WHOLE...THOUGH WITH THE ADVENT OF THE GFS PARALLEL AS THE NEW
OPERATIONAL MODEL...SOME IMPROVEMENT SEEMS LIKELY BASED ON
SUBJECTIVE INHOUSE EVALUATION. FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE GFS
AND GEFS MEAN...BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS...ARE THE ODD GUIDANCE
OUT...WITH THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE PLAINS WAVE AS EARLY AS
DAY 3 RENDERING THEIR SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE.
THE SAME BASIC FLOW PATTERN HOLDS...WITH THE POLAR JET WENDING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...AND A TOASTY SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDING SWAY TO THE SOUTH.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[rockyman]

Some consensus models and the OFCI:

[Janie2006]

All I see is a tropical wave interacting with a ULL and thus there is no real reason for battening down the hatches in S. Florida right now. We don't even have a LLC to work with here, so I agree that the current model output (while interesting, no doubt) isn't something I'm overly concerned about at the moment. We need something a little more concrete, really.

[Recurve]

As far as preps go, people do need to be aware because we're talking 60-72 hours for possible tropical storm conditions, if I'm reading things right. We have plans for boat deliveries, sea trials, things like that in the timeframe.

[Ivanhater]

Wow, first think I saw this morning was the HWRF. Trend is it may never get to the Gulf so that would be nice

[srainhoutx]

As far as preps go, people do need to be aware because we're talking 60-72 hours for possible tropical storm conditions, if I'm reading things right. We have plans for boat deliveries, sea trials, things like that in the timeframe.

Life in the Keys Recurve. KEY seems to think only a weak surface reflection as of the AM AFD with some gusty winds possible Friday. I suspect they will begin to ramp up wording if 97L shows signs of development.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS brings 97 into SFL http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_m.shtml

[ROCK]

Euro out in a few hours.....might not show development again but it will probably see something....what we are really looking for is the progression of the ridge in the long term.....there is a reason the BAMMS are bending back west. Of course, we can discount them since they are not dynamic but since everyone keeps posting the NAM I felt it was worth mentioning..

if the EURO bites here in a few hours then I will jump on board with the dynamics....in closing dont discount the EURO...97L does not have a center yet and has not moved much at all.....the longer it takes the longer its escape hatch closes....we saw that with Alex....

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

(If you live in Florida, especially near the coast, you should already be well prepared for the season. There has been plenty of warning of an active season.) 60-70 hours is plenty of time for something to get going, if conditions are favorable, such as low shear and warm waters. Under ideal conditions, storms can very raidly get their act together. We saw Charlie go from a weak Cat 1 to strong Cat 4 in an overnight. Of course, there was already a strong core developed as it came off of Cuba, but once that core is there, a system can rapidly ramp up. If this can get a core established by tomorrow night, it could easily get to a low CAT 1 by the weekend,

[srainhoutx]

12Z Para GFS @ 60 Hours...

[x-y-no]

Euro out in a few hours.....might not show development again but it will probably see something....what we are really looking for is the progression of the ridge in the long term.....there is a reason the BAMMS are bending back west. Of course, we can discount them since they are not dynamic but since everyone keeps posting the NAM I felt it was worth mentioning..

if the EURO bites here in a few hours then I will jump on board with the dynamics....in closing dont discount the EURO...97L does not have a center yet and has not moved much at all.....the longer it takes the longer its escape hatch closes....we saw that with Alex....

Yeah, I can attest that the ridge is nice and strong over us right now - strong onshore wind and little popcorn cumulus clouds whipping by here on Ft. Lauderdale Beach.

It's going to have to back off a lot for us to be affected here.

[tronbunny]

I'm with ROCK on this. I'm waiting to see if there's any development at all. Since the Euro hasn't bitten yet, I'm withholding deeper analysis.
I do believe it will bring a rain event over S or C FL in the weekend.
The static Mid-Atl high has been pretty well established, but past performance does not predict future behavior.