ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

The only other thing I will say is it does look a little elongated looking at some of the images...perhaps this is to do with there being two areas of convergence at the moment.

However I agree with the others, every chance this will be the seasons first TD given the factors we have at the moment within the next 48hrs.

[lonelymike]

Why would there need to be? All the excitement over a bunch of clouds.

A bunch of clouds that has a good circulation, good outflow, banding features, is under a moderate to low shear environment and warm SST, it's just a typical tropical wave...isn't it?

Yup...just a typical wave...YEAH RIGHT!

What I should have said let's wait and see what happens when it gets free from the ITCZ.

I guess some people need anything to get excited about doom and gloom this year.

[jinftl]

Generally, the further east a system develops in the atlantic, the more likely it will be a fish. Not an absolute, and we have seen some very long trakkers form well east of the islands and make it all the way to the east coast and GoM.

The monster menaces of the 2005 season for the most part didn't get going until they were approaching the bahamas....that was the case with Katrina and Rita. Called them 'Bahama Bombers'.

Notice that 92L is only moving 10-15 knots westward, a sign from this year's weaker than normal easterlies across the tropical Atlantic, usually tropical systems and or disturbances this time of the year usally in years that have a strong Azores ridge are flying westward at least at 15-20 knots westward, if not faster.

Good point, as that improves the prospects of development. If that pattern holds later in the season, we're going to have a lot of CV storms.

[Gustywind]

I suspect that we will see TD #1 in the next 24-36 hours if things progress as they have so far IMHO. Stay safe Eastern Caribbean neighbors.

Thanks my friend hope that this wave wil stay like that bu things can turn quickly so let's watch the progress of this systeme as usual even if we're only in June

[Blown Away]

92L has favorable conditions and that shear to the NW is more than 3-4 days away from affecting this system. Shear forecasts beyond a few days are not set in stone. Maybe we are seeing more July like conditions in mid June? IMO, there is nothing ahead of 92L that will pull 92L far enough N to miss the islands, really nowhere for 92L to go except for WNW through the islands, hopefully as an early season strong wave!

[SFLcane]

[hockeytim19]

Just for fun, I turned the "Weather" Channel on to see what they had to say about 92L. After about 45 seconds of wonderful graphics depicting the beginning of the "Tropical Update", they proceeded to show a global-view satellite showing 92L and literally talked about it for abut 30 seconds... and with questionable meteorological reasoning. Then they had a news story about the World Cup.

So sad.

I remember the days when I would race to a TV at :48 after the hour and have John Hope give me the low-down on what was going on out there. He would talk about EVERY darn cloud in the tropics. I miss him.

[srainhoutx]

[Recurve]

quite a nice pinwheel in appearance and seemingly some developing circulation. Doesn't appear to be any shear in the visible sat image. Sounds like some of you who know a lot more than me are pretty bullish, at least for it to reach TD.
I do like the idea of these invests developing early as far as keeping them away from the East Coast. The ones that struggle and then develop near the Bahamas/Turks (add Andrew into that category) are frightening as Jinftl points out.

[Blown Away]

quite a nice pinwheel in appearance and seemingly some developing circulation. Doesn't appear to be any shear in the visible sat image. Sounds like some of you who know a lot more than me are pretty bullish, at least for it to reach TD.
I do like the idea of these invests developing early as far as keeping them away from the East Coast. The ones that struggle and then develop near the Bahamas/Turks (add Andrew into that category) are frightening as Jinftl points out.

Most of the historic EC canes were CV systems. If 92L develops a WNW track towards the Caribbean seems likely, look at the models. It seems we are in new era of tracking canes and each year it seems we are breaking some record and busting climatology.
Think we get "Code Red" at 2pm?? I say not yet!

[Recurve]

Lower level winds. At Upper level seems to be a swath of strong southwest to northeast ahead of this system, is that the shear out ahead and somewhat northward of the invest that people referred to as a few days out?



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Circulation quite evident.

Encouraging words for those of us very early on in the learning curve of such helpful pictures with markings such as these. To most of you this is obvious, yet I strain to see what you see clearly. Thanks so much.

WLD

[KWT]

Shear levels look good upto about 50W then decrease very rapidly even down to about 8-9N, however the longer it can stay south the better its chance are.

Anyway 92L is still in the pocket of better conditions under 92L, which should allow development for a little while yet.

[Blown Away]

Nice convection building along the NW quadrant of the circulation center near 6.5N/36W!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

I am going ahead to say code red at 2 PM TWO.

[Ivanhater]

Im not so sure. I would like to see a concentration of thunderstorms over the center to favor further development. Very well could happen today though.

[Blown Away]

Im not so sure. I would like to see a concentration of thunderstorms over the center to favor further development. Very well could happen today though.

Might be a bit early for "Code Red" and I agree w/ needing to see more concentrated thunderstorms. We can see the beginning of storms building near the circulation center in cycloneye's loop he posted. If the recent convection persists I say "Code Red" at 8pm.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I think TD at 8PM TS at 2AM

[Hurricane Andrew]

Why? because like stated, it needs a convection burst over the center.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like it's breaking down a bit.