EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[somethingfunny]

Well this sure is interesting using probabilities for development! I'm imagining the rest of the season playing out with this same sort of ramp-up to TD status...maybe it will cut down on questionably named storms, or at least cut down on the controversies. The process seems more methodical now although it's probably more a case of the methods just being public now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

So, we have TD 1! thats awsome!

well...not TD 1 yet...not till late morning.

Anyway, the thing is half on land.

My forcast will be out in a 'sec.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a TD, why must they wait till late morning?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Notes-
1)the storm is over 86F+ water
2)it is half on land
3)it will cross over
4)the land is very hilly

Conclusion)It will strengthen rapidly then weaken. it might redevelop later.

0 Hours-X
6 hours-TD-35MPH
12 hours-TS-60MPH(yes i am going for the high end of the rope)
24 hours-TS-45MPH,inland
48 Hours-TD-30MPH,inland
72 Hours-TD-30MPH,inland
96 Hours-TD-30MPH,Over water
120 hours-TD-35MPH

[cycloneye]

Looks like a TD, why must they wait till late morning?

Probably to coordinate the advisories with the goverments involved.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks like a TD, why must they wait till late morning?

Probably to coordinate the advisories with the goverments involved.

I thought its because they want to keep the advisories on an organzied scudule.

Oh,should we call it TD 1 now?

[brunota2003]

I think they also wanted to wait until they have some visible images, so they can determine the location of the llc.

[KWT]

Yep looks like we have a tropical depression, just a matter of hours till we get our first offical TD of the season in the EPAC...

Now the big question is do we get another May system in the EPAC (10 out of 11 I believe if it does!) I suspect it probably will have time as long as the convective burst doesn't weaken too much...probably only has 12-24hrs over water from the looks of things.

[cycloneye]

TD 1-E at 8:00 AM PDT.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep902010_ep012010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201005291205
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[Hurricane Andrew]

TD 1-E at 8:00 AM PDT.

NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep902010_ep012010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201005291205
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

Wait. Is it a storm Now?

[cwachal]

We have tropical depression Number 1 in the EPAC now I cant wait till we get the advisory so we can see if they forecast it to make it to the atlantic ocean

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 291215
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
1200 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 5 AM PDT THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO HAVE ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR ALL OF THE EL SALVADOR COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF
GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 93.5W AT 29/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 93.5W AT 29/1200Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 93.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.0N 93.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.3N 92.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.7N 91.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.4N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.9N 91.2W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 93.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Hurricane Andrew]

TD 1!

The first officail storm of the EPAC hurricane season has formed! Many questions remain at hand.

will it strengthen?
will it cross over?
will it dissipate?
will it turn around?

Stay tuned to STORM2K to find out.

(sorry i HAD to do that)

[KWT]

Takes it upto 50kts, which seems reasonable providing it doesn't get inland too quickly like it does on the 0z GFDL...

So we have TD1-E...I suspect we will have our first named storm of the year soon enough in the EPAC...

[cwachal]

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 291215
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
1200 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 5 AM PDT THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO HAVE ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR ALL OF THE EL SALVADOR COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF
GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 93.5W AT 29/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 93.5W AT 29/1200Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 93.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.0N 93.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.3N 92.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.7N 91.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.4N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.9N 91.2W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 93.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cwachal]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 291223
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA...
...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 93.5W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM...W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM...W OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 5 AM PDT THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO HAVE ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR ALL OF THE EL SALVADOR COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF
GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
93.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR
5 MPH...7 KM/HR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE THIS
EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[brunota2003]

That new format is definitely going to take some time getting used to!

[Hurricane Andrew]

That new format is definitely going to take some time getting used to!

What new format?

[brunota2003]

The forecast products issued by the NHC (some of them, like the public advisory) were given new formats starting this year.

.PDF highlighting the changes:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nhc_new_2010.pdf

Various Public Information Statements regarding these, and past years', changes.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pns_index.shtml

How to read the Public Advisory (along with examples of the new formats, compared to the old formats)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/help/tcp.shtml

[cycloneye]

I like the new format of the public advisories as they have more information for the public to read in a quick way.