ATL: NICOLE - Models

[artist]

I wonder if that research flight has given them data.
As soon as I posted this btangy posted this in the discussion thread-

PREDICT NCAR-GV flight summary today. Mission is wrapping up and we found a bit of surprise...

We found an elongated circulation stretching from the two main convective blobs from 19N, 85W to 18.5N, 80.5W. There is a large region of southwesterlies and westerlies N of Honduras and a very well defined circulation above the boundary layer at 700 mb. There is a very sharp wave or warm front-like axis at 925 mb with strongly veering winds with height along this boundary. Maximum near-surface winds are about 25 knots. This data surprised us as we expected to find a broad circulation, as seen in the models, but it appears something may be quickly developing around the vicinity of these two convective blobs in the NW Caribbean. If the circulation can consolidate some, then Nicole, or "Matthew's daughter" as we're calling it, may be born soon.

We'll be flying this same region tomorrow.

Note that this data will go in to the 00Z ECMWF tonight.

thanks btangy!
Will it go into the gfs as well?
At least we know the EMCWf should have a greater idea of what is coming.

[AJC3]

12z UKMET: Further west like the 12z CMC.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalukmetLoop.html

Split camp. UKMET, CMC suggests West Coast and GFS Euro suggest East Coast of Florida.

I think those graphics might be messed up. That looks nothing like the 12Z UKMET I'm looking at (and it's a lot different than the points Luis posted for the 12Z UKMET). What I see is farther east - a very similar track to the ECM and GFS, and in fact looks like a nice compromise between the two models.

H48, 996MB, NE of the Isle of Pines (near 23.0N 81.5W)
H60, 995MB, near Flamingo, FL (near 25.4N 80.7W)
H72 995MB, E of Saint Augustine (near 30.0N 79.5W)

[srainhoutx]

12z UKMET: Further west like the 12z CMC.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalukmetLoop.html

Split camp. UKMET, CMC suggests West Coast and GFS Euro suggest East Coast of Florida.

I think those graphics might be messed up. That looks nothing like the 12Z UKMET I'm looking at (and it's a lot different than the points Luis posted for the 12Z UKMET). What I see is farther east - a very similar track to the ECM and GFS, and in fact looks like a nice compromise between the two models.

H48, 996MB, NE of the Isle of Pines (near 23.0N 81.5W)
H60, 995MB, near Flamingo, FL (near 25.4N 80.7W)
H72 995MB, E of Saint Augustine (near 30.0N 79.5W)

I just saw that Tony. CMC is the outlier to the W.

[KWT]

Yeah the GFS/ECM solution looks pretty solid to me as well unless the LLC set-up in a different location with whats expected from the models, which obviously in a broad system is more then possible still in the formative stages.

[wxman57]

New model run with the center initialized inland over the Yucatan. Don't know why they're doing this.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1948 UTC MON SEP 27 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100927 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100927  1800   100928  0600   100928  1800   100929  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.4N  88.0W   18.4N  87.0W   17.9N  85.7W   18.1N  83.5W
BAMD    18.4N  88.0W   18.2N  87.1W   17.7N  86.0W   17.8N  84.2W
BAMM    18.4N  88.0W   18.3N  86.9W   17.6N  85.7W   17.5N  83.7W
LBAR    18.4N  88.0W   18.6N  87.3W   19.3N  87.2W   20.6N  87.2W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          39KTS          48KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100929  1800   100930  1800   101001  1800   101002  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.8N  80.9W   25.6N  76.2W   30.4N  72.8W   34.6N  68.5W
BAMD    19.1N  82.0W   23.1N  78.0W   24.6N  75.2W   25.9N  72.8W
BAMM    18.6N  81.4W   23.0N  76.9W   25.6N  74.3W   28.5N  72.4W
LBAR    22.9N  87.2W   28.3N  87.2W   31.9N  84.2W   33.9N  76.5W
SHIP        61KTS          72KTS          72KTS          67KTS
DSHP        62KTS          65KTS          65KTS          60KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  18.4N LONCUR =  88.0W DIRCUR =  75DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  18.2N LONM12 =  88.9W DIRM12 =  77DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  18.1N LONM24 =  89.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[SouthFLTropics]

That seems way off wxman...What are they seeing that we are missing?

SFT

[hurricaneCW]

I hope we can get some closure in the next 24 hours, the whole model madness thing is really starting to weigh thin.

[artist]

That seems way off wxman...What are they seeing that we are missing?

SFT

could it have to do with the models seeing multiple lows? I know, probably a dumb amateur question?

[cycloneye]

Maybe the change comes from this,the predict team has a center for Pouch PGI50L inland.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... 111&loop=0

[SouthFLTropics]

I hope we can get some closure in the next 24 hours, the whole model madness thing is really starting to weigh thin.

I'm with you on that...Unfortunately though I think us Storm2k junkies are going to be stuck on here for the next few weeks dealing with the insanity. This site is like a drug...You just have to keep hitting the refresh button to get your fix...

SFT

[otowntiger]

Looks like it could miss everybody. Interesting. Well not really.

[btangy]

thanks btangy!
Will it go into the gfs as well?
At least we know the EMCWf should have a greater idea of what is coming.

Nope, this data does not get assimilated in to the GFS unfortunately. But, be careful because that doesn't automatically mean the ECMWF will automatically have a better handle on the situation. For Matthew, the GFS did much better than the ECMWF with Matthew's genesis timing despite the ECMWF having PREDICT's flight data in it.

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like it could miss everybody. Interesting. Well not really.

Oh somebody will get impacted by this, that's almost a certainty. However the real impacts could extend well outside of the immediate vicinity of the low.

[ROCK]

very weird to put it inland....the more west more time for the trof to lift out...I had though the Cozumel low was spinning out....

BTW- anyone just surfing the ALT? I see 3 naked swirls all in SAL heading towards the CONUS...we are being attacked!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rgb.html

[caneseddy]

18Z NAM loop (Unless I'm mistaken since there are so many lows in the loop) shows 96L moving east of Florida and if you look at the precipitation forecast almost all the heavy rain stays offshore

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Then again, it is the NAM

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I find it interesting that the NHC still has this at 40% for development in the next 48 hours when pretty much all of the models they depend on for track and intensity are telling them there will be development within that time, at least to a depression. Maybe it's a little of that human element that wants to see something tangible before reacting and maybe a bit of basic mistrust in technology.

[Wthrman13]

I find it interesting that the NHC still has this at 40% for development in the next 48 hours when pretty much all of the models they depend on for track and intensity are telling them there will be development within that time, at least to a depression. Maybe it's a little of that human element that wants to see something tangible before reacting and maybe a bit of basic mistrust in technology.

It's not so much a basic mistrust of technology as it is a careful and reasoned use of it based on years of forecasting experience. At least that's my take on their attitude based on many conversations with my friends who are operational forecasters.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

[/quote]

It's not so much a basic mistrust of technology as it is a careful and reasoned use of it based on years of forecasting experience. At least that's my take on their attitude based on many conversations with my friends who are operational forecasters.[/quote

But how can you say that 60% of the time the models you depend on will be wrong? Are you not also saying that other forecasts predicated on model output such as track and intensity of already formed storms also has a better chance of not verifying than of verifying? Maybe they trust output on developed storms but not on cyclone genesis.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 36 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

18Z GFS -- worst goes east of Florida. I think that is what will ultimately happen...mostly because the shear is going to be screaming out of the west...

Somehow, we may not even get much rain when all is said and done, just NW winds and dry air.