ATL: LISA - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Florida1118]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

Pic of the SAL

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TAFB=72 hours Surface Analysis Forecast

[HURAKAN]

Looking at the recent loops, it seems 94L has a nice MLC or LLC. Outflow appears to be establishing too.

[CrazyC83]

If it can stay low, we might have yet another Cape Verde threat...but this might be the lid-closer for that.

[alan1961]

Yes a good lot of dry air to the north and west for Injest 94L

[HURAKAN]

May be a little too early but here you got it!

[wxman57]

94L looks considerably more like a TS than Julia.

[HURAKAN]

Yeah, looks to be improving

[Ptarmigan]

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/2010261/crefl1_143.A2010261121000-2010261121500.2km.jpg

Pic of the SAL

It's RAID for tropical waves.

[cycloneye]

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook=Up to 40%

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Weatherfreak000]

I am shocked that we have a clearly developing system..and everyone is over in talking tropics buzzing about a system that doesn't even exist yet!

[expat2carib]

It's because those pouches might be a US hit. This one is not. Probably a fish is the mental pattern. The islands..... Yeah that's not the US. So what the h...?

[southerngale]

I am shocked that we have a clearly developing system..and everyone is over in talking tropics buzzing about a system that doesn't even exist yet!

I'm not. IF the other system(s) develops, it would affect land sooner than 94L would, if it ever does. While you have weather junkies that follow/track everything, the majority of people are interested in what could possibly affect them or people they know.

[southerngale]

:uarrow:

It's because those pouches might be a US hit. This one is not. Probably a fish is the mental pattern. The islands..... Yeah that's not the US. So what the h...?

Good grief. The other areas being talked about could affect the islands too, depending on where they actually form, if they even do form. And if I'm not mistaken, the current model runs for 94L imply it will likely miss the islands (of course they could change).

Anyway, the majority of people are naturally more interested in what could affect land, and yes, even more people are interested in what could affect them. That's just natural.

[expat2carib]

:uarrow:

It's because those pouches might be a US hit. This one is not. Probably a fish is the mental pattern. The islands..... Yeah that's not the US. So what the h...?

Good grief. The other areas being talked about could affect the islands too, depending on where they actually form, if they even do form. And if I'm not mistaken, the current model runs for 94L imply it will likely miss the islands (of course they could change).

Anyway, the majority of people are naturally more interested in what could affect land, and yes, even more people are interested in what could affect them. That's just natural.

It's because those pouches might be a US hit. This one is not. Probably a fish is the mental pattern.

This one is not a CONUS hit is what I'm saying.

And i recognize that people are generally looking at their own navel. That's more or less natural. I guess.

Back on topic. Still going WNW.

[Ptarmigan]

We need cans of RAID to suppress any tropical cyclone development. These tropical waves are like cockroaches.

[Weatherfreak000]

I am shocked that we have a clearly developing system..and everyone is over in talking tropics buzzing about a system that doesn't even exist yet!

I'm not. IF the other system(s) develops, it would affect land sooner than 94L would, if it ever does. While you have weather junkies that follow/track everything, the majority of people are interested in what could possibly affect them or people they know.

I know, I know and i'm telling you most of the time I would be in the same boat...but good grief I like to at least wait for a trackable surface feature. It seems kinda silly when you have 20 pages of essentially model run discussion and the storm never even forms I have seen it happen

[HURAKAN]

In other news, recent pic of 94L

[brunota2003]

I've been watching both...really, I can't receive a direct hit by a TC here in NW New York (other than the remnants, or if one hit NYC moving NW...which is about as likely as me being hit in the foot by a meteor). I just "love" to watch the tropics, and study them. To be honest, 94L looked a lot better earlier, but maybe it'll be another one of those that takes a few days to spin up because DMIN is always mean to it.