ATL: GASTON - Models

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

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WHXX01 KWBC 311844
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20100831 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100831  1800   100901  0600   100901  1800   100902  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.0N  31.0W   12.3N  33.6W   12.8N  36.1W   12.9N  38.3W
BAMD    12.0N  31.0W   12.6N  33.3W   13.3N  35.4W   14.0N  37.1W
BAMM    12.0N  31.0W   12.5N  33.5W   13.0N  35.8W   13.4N  37.7W
LBAR    12.0N  31.0W   12.7N  33.7W   13.6N  36.6W   14.1N  39.3W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          31KTS          36KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          31KTS          36KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100902  1800   100903  1800   100904  1800   100905  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.1N  40.4W   13.6N  44.5W   14.7N  48.8W   16.1N  53.8W
BAMD    14.8N  38.3W   16.8N  41.3W   19.5N  44.5W   21.1N  47.3W
BAMM    13.8N  39.2W   14.8N  42.6W   16.4N  46.5W   18.1N  50.8W
LBAR    14.6N  41.7W   16.6N  45.6W   21.1N  48.4W   25.1N  48.7W
SHIP        39KTS          44KTS          45KTS          48KTS
DSHP        39KTS          44KTS          45KTS          48KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.0N LONCUR =  31.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  10.3N LONM12 =  28.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =   9.9N LONM24 =  25.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[tolakram]

12Z Euro, 72 hours

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm, what do you all think. Does this have more landfall potential than the others?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Where is it? All I see is Earl.

[StormClouds63]

Where is it? All I see is Earl.

I don't see anything either, other than "Big Earl." The ridge appears to be building westward, but no closed low.

[ROCK]

the ECM doesnt see on that last run...ECM is never good at predicting development but it really good at track IMO.....the CMC sees it so that is good enough for me...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

the ECM doesnt see on that last run...ECM is never good at predicting development but it really good at track IMO.....the CMC sees it so that is good enough for me...

The ECM wasn't good with Fiona whether it recurves or not as the model has flip-flopped solutions while the GFS has been consistant with the recurve and probable disapation of Fiona by Earl. Bottom line is some of the reliable models do better with some storms. That's why the NHC takes a blend.

[jlauderdal]

the ECM doesnt see on that last run...ECM is never good at predicting development but it really good at track IMO.....the CMC sees it so that is good enough for me...

really, the euro is never good at predicting development, go back and check to see how it did with ALEX

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Lets not start the model wars again guys. The models have their good days and bad. I thought the euro was really on to something with Fiona, getting in the gulf, which I had been worried about since it was an invest. While the GFS was calling for much of nothing and curving out to sea or getting eaten alive by Earl. So the GFS got it right this time around maybe the Euro will be right with 98L?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Lets not start the model wars again guys. The models have their good days and bad. I thought the euro was really on to something with Fiona, getting in the gulf, which I had been worried about since it was an invest. While the GFS was calling for much of nothing and curving out to sea or getting eaten alive by Earl. So the GFS got it right this time around maybe the Euro will be right with 98L?

Which is why it's wise not to fall in love with a particular model but to instead take a blend, particularly at the long range where no models have a good track record.

[Ivanhater]

That is 98L in the long range GFS by the Florida Keys

[Sihara]

That's not a very nice picture, Michael. How much stock can be put in it - cause I would seriously not like to see that happening.

[thetruesms]

That's not a very nice picture, Michael. How much stock can be put in it - cause I would seriously not like to see that happening.

Well, it's certainly possible, but I wouldn't be laying down anything of value on it happening. Maybe, if I felt exceptionally convinced it would happen (I don't), I'd wager a lunch on it and then set aside some money to pay for lunch in a couple weeks

[KWT]

Yeah that is 98L but its barely even a wave for the first 6-7 days, its VERY hard to track it through the Vort but I'm going to assume from the wind shifts at 850hpa throughout that it would be 98L the GFS shows in that position.

Of course we've been saying all along, if we get a weak system that makes it past 55-60W...then we have a huge threat on our hands.

[ColinDelia]

I haven't seen the run past 168 hours yet but if you follow the vorticity from 98L to 168 hours the GFS just spins it in the same place.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

So the GFS keeps 98L in place for 168 hours and then moves it west to Key West? Doesn't really make sense since 98L is moving west at 15 mph right now.

Or am I missing something?

[ColinDelia]

KWT (or anyone) where do you see 98L at 168 hours in the 18z GFS? To me looks like 32 W.

[ColinDelia]

174 hours. Is "98L" at 32 W here?

[cycloneye]

My question is if this on the long range in the NW Caribbean/South of Florida is 98L?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Edit= I didn't see Ivans post.

[Ivanhater]

Colin, I believe it is that weak reflection about to enter the extreme Southern Caribbean

At 228 hours, it starts to take shape in the Caribbean. I believe that fits with the current movement and speed of 98L

[KWT]

Yeah Ivanhater is right, but its real weak and I can't be totally sure if its 98L or just another disturbance from the ITCZ it picks up, but from the looks of things it rides near due west and stays real weak...you can only tell its there by the wind shift that occurs on the 850hpa vort map from NCEP.