ATL: FIONA - Models

[Frank2]

Actually Europe might be in for some bad weather with all of these recurving systems (KWT look out)...

[cycloneye]

18z NOGAPS.

[Blown Away]

Why do the BAM's shoot 97L NW and the other models have 97L going westward?

Wxman57, do you think the persistent trough will recurve 97L or does it go farther west towards land?

[cycloneye]

The question I have is why there are two camps on the models, one camp screamimg recurve and the other threatening the Lesser Antilles?

[Typhoon_Willie]

I guess depending on their design different models will handle situations differently. This is my 900th post! He he.

[gatorcane]

Why do the BAM's shoot 97L NW and the other models have 97L going westward?

Wxman57, do you think the persistent trough will recurve 97L or does it go farther west towards land?

I think the BAMS are too far right. I expect them to shift more left during the next couple of runs.

The angle of movement will be directly related to how strong this system gets. The stronger, the more right.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 270056
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100827 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100827  0000   100827  1200   100828  0000   100828  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.0N  21.7W   11.5N  23.6W   12.5N  26.0W   13.8N  28.9W
BAMD    11.0N  21.7W   11.2N  24.1W   11.8N  26.4W   12.5N  28.9W
BAMM    11.0N  21.7W   11.5N  24.1W   12.4N  26.7W   13.5N  29.6W
LBAR    11.0N  21.7W   11.2N  24.7W   11.6N  28.0W   11.9N  31.6W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100829  0000   100830  0000   100831  0000   100901  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.3N  32.4W   18.5N  41.0W   22.2N  49.3W   27.1N  55.5W
BAMD    13.4N  31.6W   15.4N  37.9W   17.8N  44.6W   20.5N  49.8W
BAMM    14.6N  33.0W   17.0N  41.4W   20.4N  49.3W   25.6N  55.1W
LBAR    12.1N  35.1W   12.9N  41.6W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        57KTS          69KTS          69KTS          65KTS
DSHP        57KTS          69KTS          69KTS          65KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  21.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  11.2N LONM12 =  18.8W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  11.3N LONM24 =  16.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[KWT]

I'm fully expecting those models to slowly adjust to the west with time.

I don't know whether I totally buy the GFS/ECM evolution of the pattern and how the future Fiona interacts with Earl...but then again its also hard to see past a powerful Earl creating another big weakness for this one to just slide right into, esp if Fiona ends up being quite strong as well...

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL is very bullish making it a cat 4.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

18z HWRF is less bullish than GFDL but goes to hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

00z Models:

The TAFB and the 00z models are not on the same page. The TAFB is way south through 72 hours, similar to the Nogaps track.

[gatorcane]

The BAMS are already wrong since it is moving due west at 270.

[ronjon]

This is what this mornings 00Z CMC did with 97L (Fiona). All the way to Cuba.



And the 12Z run today at 144 hrs:

[ROCK]

Interesting CMC run....I would agree with a southern track for now....My thoughts are still this is the one to get into the carib....

[Sambucol]

Interesting CMC run....I would agree with a southern track for now....My thoughts are still this is the one to get into the carib....

No scientific data here, but my gut feeling is you're right. Question: does the lower latitude where an invest is born usually result in a more westward track?

[BigA]

Interesting CMC run....I would agree with a southern track for now....My thoughts are still this is the one to get into the carib....

No scientific data here, but my gut feeling is you're right. Question: does the lower latitude where an invest is born usually result in a more westward track?

All else being equal, yes.

[cycloneye]

Lets see if the 00z package of models show again the divided camps or there is a consensus.

[Vortex]

And we await......btw looks like the center of earl is tightening up closer to 15n. well see.

[ROCK]

[ROCK]

last best track was 11N....I dont see 15...

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

that my friends is what you call a westward shift....