ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[KWT]

I'd be surprised personally if it recurbed before 60W, I suspect the models are a little overdoing the upper troughing but clearly the broad pattern is a recurving pattern.

[Weatherfreak000]

I'd be surprised personally if it recurbed before 60W, I suspect the models are a little overdoing the upper troughing but clearly the broad pattern is a recurving pattern.

The only thing that appears to be "clear" KWT, is the opinion I and perhaps others share that you are commonly jumping the gun as far as the tropics and your opinion. Of course this is totally okay, but it leads to a lot of mental errors because the tropics are highly unpredictable.


If anything, this far out weather is ANYTHING but clear.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows a large almost winter-like low with cold front extending SW.....across the midatlantic/NE, only 78 hours from now:

That is likely to really break down any kind of Bermuda High that was present.

[KWT]

I know there is error sometimes in the models....BUT not only would the models have to do a total 180 for this to be a threat to land (and inside 144hrs, thats not going to happen even if the troughs are overdone)

We have what maybe 2000 miles of room for error, I'd personally still expect recurve even if it got quite alot further west then progged!
I've already said I think the models are too far east as well by the way, thats why I think Bermuda is at real risk, but we are a very very long way away from even a hint at a landfall...not even one ensemble member from the GFS gets close and none of the other models get close either.

Weatherfreak000...I'm not jumping the gun my friend...the models ALL show EXACTLY the same picture...I really don't see why people are denying the total agreement!

[floridasun78]

i hope you all are right if not i say were is fish i see 100% of storm2k member agree on turn i hope you all right i do hope

[CrazyC83]

Another thing: the models may not have initialized right. The center, if it is where the eye is, would be at 12.7N 19.5W which is far to the northeast of the initially analyzed center.

[gatorcane]

Another thing: the models may not have initialized right. The center, if it is where the eye is, would be at 12.7N 19.5W which is far to the northeast of the initially analyzed center.

True, but it won't make much of a difference when there is no Bermuda High at all which is what the models are suggesting by the time Danielle arrives.

[KWT]

The other thing I'd say is nothing is ever 100% but I just don't see any reason for it not to recurve away, if I did I'd certainly be urging extreme caution right now though. I maybe being a little bit bullish weatherfreak, but I learnt a very bit lesson from hurricane Bill about hanging onto a landfall threat when all other information said otherwise, I'm not making that mistake twice. You maybe right though, perhaps I'll ease off being quite so sure for a little while until we actually have a clear idea, thats fair enough.

The only thing to watch is in case the system takes so long to wrap itself up and therefore totally misses the 1st trough that digs down, then carries on WNW out to about 60W close to 20N...thats when things could get interesting...

However we are a very long way still from that occuring.

12z GFS is a smidge north of its last position at 72hrs....

[x-y-no]

Regarding the new GFS ... we'll see but it looks to me like from 66 hours onward it's doing the same old incredible disappearing mid-level ridge trick that the old GFS so often did.

I'm not ready to buy it yet.

That said, odds are strong for this to recurve soon enough to be a Bermuda threat at worst.

[Wx_Warrior]

I totally disagree on the "anything is clear" part. I thing a few things are clear here. Models develop and most models are recurving. None have put this in the GOM, so that is CLEAR to this point....

[KWT]

12z GFS looks to miss the first trough connection possibly, but the upper trough does do eonugh on this run to suggest anything but a recurve would be pretty amazing...we have a system at say 26-27N and at 56-57W, much would depend on any upper ridge forms, anything other then a strong upper ridge forming over Canada and this baby goes fishing probably east of Bermuda on the 12z run...

I agree wx warrior, I'm not sure why there is this sort of disbelief over models that have'nt shifted once in the last few days on being between 55-60W on recurve...

[gatorcane]

12Z looks like it would send Danielle fishing (there is some loop at the end but it is so far north at this point)...

[KWT]

Yeah its at a very high latitude indeed, it reminds me a little of what happened to Bertha when the exit door was slammed shut so it drifted back southwards a little.

Of course if several variables shifted then that run would make things rather interesting for the NE, for example if forward speed was slower and the system weaker plus the upper troughing was weaker, that evolution would probably make it a little close for comfort.

Personally I think the GFS is still too far east though at 168hrs...

[Riptide]

Yeah its at a very high latitude indeed, it reminds me a little of what happened to Bertha when the exit door was slammed shut so it drifted back southwards a little.

Of course if several variables shifted then that run would make things rather interesting for the NE, for example if forward speed was slower and the system weaker plus the upper troughing was weaker, that evolution would probably make it a little close for comfort.

Personally I think the GFS is still too far east though at 168hrs...

This run really is creating quite the sporadic steering pattern with Danielle getting stuck between two massive high pressure systems. Perhaps this is the start of a more significant trend with timing and the strength of the upper-level trough. The 12z euro should be interesting as usual.

[KWT]

Oh without a doubt but all the GFS 12z really does is stall the system and execute a small loop before it shots off to the east, now if it pulled that trick down at say 20N then things would certainly change in terms of the outlook but in the end the 12z still only just managed to get west of 60W and thats well away from land still...

[gatorcane]

when will the GFDL and HWRF runs be available?

[MWatkins]

Interestingly, the powerful north-central Atlantic upper system depicted by the GFS on the 0Z run (and many runs before it) doesn't even show up in the 12Z run.

I find it comical that 6 to 10 day deterministic model runs, over the tropics, are consistently treated as facts. The only useful thing about them, in my opinion, is the TREND...not the DETERMINISTIC OUTCOME!!!!!!!!!!!

Arrrrggggghhhhhhhhhh!

And we're talking about the GFS, a model almost universally panned by board members...

Go back through the Frances thread in 2004...and tell me who was "sure" about what.

So back to the trend...what do you know? Wow the 12Z GFS is looking more like 0Z euro...stall/slowdown scenario until almost day 10!!!

What is the trend saying about the extended period?

MW

[KWT]

Look if its just the GFS then I'd be in total agreement...but its EVERY model, there isn't one to my knowleadge that even comes close to not recurving it....though I dare say there are some ECM ensemble members that probably do get close....
In the end a slowdown does mean the upper troughing is weakening...but if the system is anywhere between 30-40N at 60W its not really going to make a huge amount of difference, it'll just pull a Bertha and sit there waiting for the next upper trough to eventually come along...because thats the long term pattern and has been now for a good month, a pretty progressive amplified pattern.

As for Frances, thats why I never say rule it out because you just can't be totally sure can you!

The only time I'm going to get worried is if I actually see a proper high developing over Canada...not just a ridge but an actual upper high that can drag this one westwards at say 30N...

[gatorcane]

Interestingly, the powerful north-central Atlantic upper system depicted by the GFS on the 0Z run (and many runs before it) doesn't even show up in the 12Z run.

I find it comical that 6 to 10 day deterministic model runs, over the tropics, are consistently treated as facts. The only useful thing about them, in my opinion, is the TREND...not the DETERMINISTIC OUTCOME!!!!!!!!!!!

Arrrrggggghhhhhhhhhh!

And we're talking about the GFS, a model almost universally panned by board members...

Go back through the Frances thread in 2004...and tell me who was "sure" about what.

So back to the trend...what do you know? Wow the 12Z GFS is looking more like 0Z euro...stall/slowdown scenario until almost day 10!!!

What is the trend saying about the extended period?

MW

Mike I do agree with you. A model run comes out and 300 hours out it may hit point A, and people talk about "wow point A hasn't been hit in a while" yet its 300 hours out...so it is all about trends.

I went back and looked at the Frances posts...even several pro mets were sold on Frances hitting a weakness at about 55 or 60W....and I see posts from you and Wxman57 who weren't sure, just like you and WxMan are not so sure now.

When I look at the 12Z GFS run here, seems like that weakness is closing up pretty quickly and a large ridge is getting to roll off the Eastern CONUS at the end. I suppose if the weakness is not as large, and the ridge moves it sooner, it could block this system and send it west. Will look for trends in future runs:

GFS loop:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

I do think the troughing will weaken Gatorcane, its quite evident on the ECM/GFS run, though its still there and obviously if anything is at 30N like the models prog, its going to get caught even by a pretty weak trough.

The big uncertainty in my mind (and despite feeling confident, I think I'm over bullish now) is how quickly this one organises and in relation how much latitude it gains in the next 4 days...if its anywhere near 20N like some of the models prog by 96-120hrs...its a dead cert recurve given the pattern we are in...

Till then though keep an eye in case any outliers pop up or if the ECM decides to totally shift things round. We know it *will* gain some latitude, not enough to recurve at the first time of asking however, but the uncertainty lies with the 2nd and probably 3rd trough that comes down.