ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[jasons2k]

This one looks almost ready to go. I don't think it will be so painfully slow to develop. The next day or so will have me glued to the Ecmwf...in between pool time & grilling burgers at least

[ROCK]

Jasons I can relate...

The BAMMS are to far south with this. They are initialized wrong IMO.....

[Frank P]

Jasons I can relate...

The BAMMS are to far south with this. They are initialized wrong IMO.....

Not sure why they initialized it so far south either.... I can't really pinpoint any LLC to speak of in either blob areas... perhaps that is the area of lowest pressure of the two blobs...

[AdamFirst]

Alex part II?

Whats the steering currents looking like?

[HURAKAN]

Alex part II?

Whats the steering currents looking like?

Right now, it should be moving NW

[Weatherfreak000]

As far as people asking where this is going- it's almost the same setup as Alex. If it develops quickly, it will make it through the Yucatan channel and Central Gulf may be the most at risk. If it stays very weak and smashes into the Yucatan could be a Mex/Tex threat.

[Weatherfreak000]

Impressive, it makes a stronger signature than 95L now. Medium percentage is coming very shortly with this invest.

[Sanibel]

This doesn't have as much energy associated with it as Alex. Plus it is right in the same track.


Hard to say. Amazing what a hyperactive year will do. The last two years made fools out of satellite image watchers with deep round waves dissipating. And in some years like 2005 every wave with thunderstorms spins-up and develops.

[Portastorm]

I'm not sure just how much difference two degrees celsius water temperature makes with a tropical system but clearly Alex left his tire marks in the Western Gulf.



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[Macrocane]

2008 was a pretty active year, I don't remember good waves dissipating, they struggled to survive for a while but once they got their act together nothing could stop them.

[Weatherfreak000]

This doesn't have as much energy associated with it as Alex. Plus it is right in the same track.


Hard to say. Amazing what a hyperactive year will do. The last two years made fools out of satellite image watchers with deep round waves dissipating. And in some years like 2005 every wave with thunderstorms spins-up and develops.

Hard to find an invest with an much wasted potential as 93L had. It almost had a monsoonal look to it and for days it was anything but organized.




I think it's shocking, UTTERLY shocking, to think I see FOUR development potential spots on that map. 96L is looking absolutely fantastic with every new satellite image it keeps looking better and better.

The wave i've been tracking at 60W is in a deceptively good environment. It very well may be our next invest 97L...that is if we don't get a Bahamas invest.

Geez...what a season.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[NOLA2010]

This doesn't have as much energy associated with it as Alex. Plus it is right in the same track.


Hard to say. Amazing what a hyperactive year will do. The last two years made fools out of satellite image watchers with deep round waves dissipating. And in some years like 2005 every wave with thunderstorms spins-up and develops.

Hard to find an invest with an much wasted potential as 93L had. It almost had a monsoonal look to it and for days it was anything but organized.


I think it's shocking, UTTERLY shocking, to think I see FOUR development potential spots on that map. 96L is looking absolutely fantastic with every new satellite image it keeps looking better and better.

The wave i've been tracking at 60W is in a deceptively good environment. It very well may be our next invest 97L...that is if we don't get a Bahamas invest.

Geez...what a season.

Wasn't 93L Hurricane Alex?

[Macrocane]

Wasn't 93L Hurricane Alex?

I think 93L was the wave that looked very good while moving between Africa and the Caribbean but it never developed (though it looked like it almost reached TD status). It was the wave ahead of Alex.

[Ikester]

Wasn't 93L Hurricane Alex?

I think 93L was the wave that looked very good while moving between Africa and the Caribbean but it never developed (though it looked like it almost reached TD status). It was the wave ahead of Alex.

The wave way out in the Atlantic early on eventually became Alex i thought.

[wxman57]

Model initialization location looks fine to me. Just off the coast of Honduras near where Alex passed. Probably a very similar track. May not develop until it gets into the BoC, though. And if that's the case, it may track south of Alex.

[rockyman]

FWIW (probably very little), Cayman Brac's winds have shifted from south to southeast to due east this morning

[Raininfyr]

Well, the NHC has been doing a fantastic job so far this season. They are very good at what they do. They have all the latest forecasting tools at their disposal. If they are saying a similar landfall as Alex, I trust that, I am watchful, always, but I trust that. Can't afford to not watch what is going on in the tropics. I saw where the EPAC may have something soon, and sometimes that means activity in the Gulf and Atlantic follow, going to be busy, busy, busy, this year.

[clfenwi]

Wasn't 93L Hurricane Alex?

I think 93L was the wave that looked very good while moving between Africa and the Caribbean but it never developed (though it looked like it almost reached TD status). It was the wave ahead of Alex.

The wave way out in the Atlantic early on eventually became Alex i thought.

92L was the wave that looked good deep in the tropics, only to ultimately die in the Caribbean. 93L, which became Alex, was designated an invest when it was in the eastern Caribbean (see beginning of Alex thread and 92L thread.)