ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[poof121]

All the buoys on NDBC(http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov) in the area having rising pressures. Not sure how anything can develop in that. But as we all know things can change quickly.

[xcool22]

best analog year!!!!! 2002 Bertha

[Infdidoll]

I don't normally watch the Atlantic much...being that I'm living in the West Pacific for now, but I just started really getting into storm-watching...Where is the biggest hot spot for storms to form in that area? Or is there one?

[KWT]

Yeah Frank P, I'd say probably south of west looks about right, if it keeps this motion up it'll probably eventually get into the waters but as you say it'll be following the shear zone as well which is problematic for development.

The other thing is it does look like its has a circulation so if it does to the west of the oil spill it'll probably drag some oil towards land.

[poof121]

I don't normally watch the Atlantic much...being that I'm living in the West Pacific for now, but I just started really getting into storm-watching...Where is the biggest hot spot for storms to form in that area? Or is there one?

It varies depending on the month. However, as we get into August and September, the Cape Verde season will kick up just off the coast of Africa. It's really interesting to track a storm all the way from Africa to North America.

[HURAKAN]

NOUS42 KNHC 021400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 02 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-032

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 03/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1700Z
D. 28.5N 86.5W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 04/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 04/0445Z
D. 28.0N 87.0W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 04/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[poof121]

It has an upper low over top of it, which as far as I can remember makes tropical development that much more difficult.

200 mb vorticity:

[Infdidoll]

I don't normally watch the Atlantic much...being that I'm living in the West Pacific for now, but I just started really getting into storm-watching...Where is the biggest hot spot for storms to form in that area? Or is there one?

It varies depending on the month. However, as we get into August and September, the Cape Verde season will kick up just off the coast of Africa. It's really interesting to track a storm all the way from Africa to North America.

Thanks, poof! I was just curious...I know many of the West Pac's storms usually seem to form in a pocket just south of Guam and I was wondering how much of a chance a storm forming on the coast had there. Just seems like an odd area...but if it moves southwest, totally plausible, I suppose.

Thinking of you all...I've been watching the ATL threads and praying the Gulf is spared.

[KWT]

Interesting Hurakan, they must be alert enough about it doing something to put recon tasking on it...

Also another system that may not be a bad match in terms of placement and maybe strength would be Edoaurd from 2008...I'm not all that convinced this develops though to be honest.

[RachelAnna]

Interesting Hurakan, they must be alert enough about it doing something to put recon tasking on it...

Also another system that may not be a bad match in terms of placement and maybe strength would be Edoaurd from 2008...I'm not all that convinced this develops though to be honest.

I hope that it doesn't develop because of location and proximity to oil. Oh, and I don't want Bonnie knocking on my door! Although, early models don't suggest Galveston/Houston so we'd probably be in the clear, but you never know...

[poof121]

I don't normally watch the Atlantic much...being that I'm living in the West Pacific for now, but I just started really getting into storm-watching...Where is the biggest hot spot for storms to form in that area? Or is there one?

It varies depending on the month. However, as we get into August and September, the Cape Verde season will kick up just off the coast of Africa. It's really interesting to track a storm all the way from Africa to North America.

Thanks, poof! I was just curious...I know many of the West Pac's storms usually seem to form in a pocket just south of Guam and I was wondering how much of a chance a storm forming on the coast had there. Just seems like an odd area...but if it moves southwest, totally plausible, I suppose.

Thinking of you all...I've been watching the ATL threads and praying the Gulf is spared.

This time of year is fairly common for storms to form just off the coast, considering the occasional early summer front that will make a tropical transition. Happens a lot in October and later too when the autumn fronts make it down into the Gulf of Mexico.

[SunnyThoughts]

Well there goes the holiday weekend...argggggggg I don't think this will amount to much either, just alot of rain parked over the gulf coast on a weekend where everyone likes to be outside!.

[Sanibel]

Saw that twist and came in to report it. See it was already spotted.


Is that the remnant of 94L? The front convection appears to be combining with the low level spin.

[poof121]

Saw that twist and came in to report it. See it was already spotted.


Is that the remnant of 94L?

I don't think so. This low is home grown, from the front dipping down.

[x-y-no]

With the amount of shear forecast for the next several days, I can't see any chance of development with this one.

[dixiebreeze]

Invest 95 in 48 hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[MWatkins]

I don't normally watch the Atlantic much...being that I'm living in the West Pacific for now, but I just started really getting into storm-watching...Where is the biggest hot spot for storms to form in that area? Or is there one?

Since it varies by month, here is a list of the hotspots by each month based on historical frequency and past tracks. Enjoy!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml#ori

MW

[HouTXmetro]

I don't normally watch the Atlantic much...being that I'm living in the West Pacific for now, but I just started really getting into storm-watching...Where is the biggest hot spot for storms to form in that area? Or is there one?

Since it varies by month, here is a list of the hotspots by each month based on historical frequency and past tracks. Enjoy!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml#ori

MW

If it manages to get that far south and West that's NOT good! Let's just pray that the conditions remain extremly hostile to keep it weak cause those SST's are very warm with just enough open ocean for something to crank up.

[rockyman]

The surface vorticity appears to be moving west at a fairly good clip...over land...with a mid-level vortex trailing to the south over water




I'm assuming that the NHC is thinking that the MLC will take over and become surface-based, while the dry swirl will die out.

Here's the mid-level vorticity:

Here's the low-level vorticity:


If the shear relaxes, I'd expect the vortices to begin to align and strengthen.

Here's the reason the models are showing a SW movement (from the same high pushed Alex into Mexico):

[Stormcenter]

In my opinion at worse this may amount to a moderate TS.
But it's going to have to battle a ton of shear and dry air if wants to get even close to that level. Anyway you never know in the tropics with these things.