EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY - DISCUSSION

[bob rulz]

The circulation is very clear, but it needs a lot more organized convection before we can expect anything from it. It looks to be developing pretty rapidly though.

[cycloneye]

We may be looking at TS Darby later this week.

WHXX01 KMIA 212047
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2047 UTC MON JUN 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952010) 20100621 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 91.2W 9.7N 92.5W 10.2N 94.0W 10.7N 95.7W
BAMD 9.3N 91.2W 9.9N 93.1W 10.5N 95.2W 11.3N 97.4W
BAMM 9.3N 91.2W 9.8N 92.8W 10.4N 94.8W 11.2N 97.2W
LBAR 9.3N 91.2W 9.9N 92.9W 10.9N 95.2W 12.4N 97.8W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1800 100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 97.7W 12.1N 101.9W 12.7N 105.2W 11.9N 108.3W
BAMD 12.2N 99.6W 13.7N 102.6W 14.4N 103.9W 15.3N 104.9W
BAMM 12.3N 99.7W 14.6N 103.6W 15.4N 105.5W 14.7N 107.3W
LBAR 14.1N 100.3W 17.6N 104.4W 20.3N 106.4W 21.6N 107.5W
SHIP 39KTS 46KTS 47KTS 44KTS
DSHP 39KTS 46KTS 47KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.3N LONCUR = 91.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 90.0W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 8.1N LONM24 = 88.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

It's back!

[KWT]

Reminds me of the strom train in the Atlantic in 2008, though this time both basins are adding to the fun and games!

[HURAKAN]

The circulation is very clear, but it needs a lot more organized convection before we can expect anything from it. It looks to be developing pretty rapidly though.

This system is far from developing unless it can produce intense precipitation and keep it

[bob rulz]

The circulation is very clear, but it needs a lot more organized convection before we can expect anything from it. It looks to be developing pretty rapidly though.

This system is far from developing unless it can produce intense precipitation and keep it

Indeed...perhaps saying it was rapid developing was a bit hasty on my part but it has improved in structure throughout the day. Usually though, the systems that have good rotation but are struggling convection-wise are almost always worth keeping an eye on. All this needs is a good convective burst to develop, and once that happens it doesn't worry about having to develop a good structure.

[HURAKAN]

428
ABPZ20 KNHC 212345
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

#7
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[KWT]

Hmmm well thats interesting, a medium risk with it being at 60%...clearly there is a mistake in there, but what is it, the number or the word?

[clfenwi]

Hmmm well thats interesting, a medium risk with it being at 60%...clearly there is a mistake in there, but what is it, the number or the word?

Seems like the mistake is the word. The Graphical TWO displays the area in red and says "high chance".

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...RESENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010

RESENT FOR COMMUNICATIONS CHECK

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued.

WTPN21 PHNC 220200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 90.9W TO 11.1N 96.2W WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
220000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N
91.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N
91.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 91.8W, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FAIRLY WEAK CONVECTION
ROTATING ABOUT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210058Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAVORABLE EASTERLY VENTING AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. VERTICAL AMSU TEMPERATURE CROSS SECTIONS FROM
CIRA SHOW A DEVELOPING WARM CORE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230200Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Unless there's a major burst of convection, I think the TCFA was issued too early.

[Aquawind]

Yeah.. I dunno about that call... They must being seeing something at the surface and just waiting for consolidating and convection to pop over it..

[Aquawind]

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.

[KWT]

This one is going to need to be watched because it is going to have a decent threat of making landfall, esp if 93L decides to develop and a weakness is formed to take the system to the NNW.

Anyway I can't believe just how fast the EPAC has set off, bet some agencies will raise thie EPAC numbers a little next update given how quick it has set off.

[HURAKAN]

Certaintly looking much better this morning

[Macrocane]

It does look much better, you can see the LLC and the convection forming near that center, a quick start of the EPAC season, no doubt about it.

Off topic, in that picture it seems like Honduras and El Salvador are just one country.

[KWT]

Worth noting there are some models that either take it very close to Mexico or actually make landfall as a weakness caused by 93L is induced causing more of a northerly motion.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Aquawind]

Looks like it's wrapping up tight now..Next update should be an upgrade imo..



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t8/flash-vis.html