WPAC: EX TROPICAL STORM OMAIS

[cycloneye]

Trying to get better organized.

[cycloneye]

First warning by JTWC on TD 2W



WTPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 6.6N 143.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 143.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 7.9N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 8.8N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 9.7N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.6N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 12.1N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.7N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.1N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 6.9N 142.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CON-
VECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 211217Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC IS CREATING AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC, WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALSO CREATING MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WHICH IS HAMPERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TD 02W. THE SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD
02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROP-
ICAL RIDGE (STR). TD 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN
THE STR AND ALLOW FOR TD 02W TO BEGIN MOVING MORE NORTHWARD. THE
TROUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLOW DOWN IN TRACK SPEED AS THE STR WEAKENS.
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLOWLY AS VWS DECREASES, ALLOWING
FOR TD 02W TO ORGANIZE VERTICALLY IN LATER TAUS. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 202251Z MAR 10 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 202300) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z,
221500Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 7.5N 142.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 142.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 8.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 9.5N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.4N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.2N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 12.8N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.6N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.8N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 7.8N 141.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

21/2030 UTC 7.2N 143.2E T2.0/2.0 02W -- West Pacific

30 knots

[HURAKAN]

Looks like some southeast shear is affecting the depression

[HURAKAN]

Alone in the wild!!!

[Infdidoll]

I've been in the States visiting and I'm supposed to be flying back to Okinawa on the 31st...Going to have to keep an eye on this!

[oaba09]

multi model forecast

[oaba09]

0900z advisory



WTPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 7.9N 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9N 142.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 8.9N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 9.8N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.7N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 11.5N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.5N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.0N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.5N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 8.1N 142.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE TD HAS NOT INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE HELD AT A 1.5 OR 25 KNOTS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THIS
ESTIMATE TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN A STRONGER LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAN THE CONVECTION (OR DVORAK)
SUGGESTS. HOWEVER, THE OFF HOUR ESTIMATE FROM KNES DOES INDICATE A
30 KNOT LLCC. THE INITIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED TO 08 KNOTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THIS SLOW DOWN REPLICATES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. A 220411Z AMSRE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LLCC TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. STRONG DIFFLUENT
EASTERLIES ALOFT ARE BIASING THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION TOWARDS THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION AND MAKING IS DIFFICULT FOR THE
SYSTEM TO VERTICALLY STACK, THUS RETARDING MARKED INTENSIFICATION.
THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FOR THE FIRST 72
HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TRACK SPEED. THE STORM WILL TRACK
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDES AND WEAKEN
THE RIDGE INCITING A MORE NORTH OF WEST TRACK AFTER TAU 48. BY TAU
72 THE TD WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AS THE MID-LATITUDE PATTERN BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
SHEAR TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE LLCC TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS REASONING IS A DEPARTURE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
TRACK REASONING. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO
45 KNOTS SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY AND VWS IS
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE AS SOON AS TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z,
230300Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[P.K.]

06Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 142E WNW 10 KT

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 221200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 968 HPA
AT 51N 156E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
800 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 54N 161E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN
PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 34N 166E 43N 171E
54N 170E 50N 180E 43N 180E 34N 172E 34N 166E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 43N 129E EAST 25 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 141E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 43N 112E ESE 20 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 31N 140E EAST 25 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N 109E TO 29N 115E 30N 119E 32N 123E 32N
127E.
WARM FRONT FROM 53N 170E TO 50N 176E 47N 179E.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 170E TO 45N 171E 37N 167E 30N 159E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

269
ATPQ40 PGUM 221426
SIMGUM

SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
100 AM CHST TUE MAR 23 2010

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 8N142E HAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND BETWEEN 8N AND 13N FROM 137E TO 142E...
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. CONVERGENT WINDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF TD 02W ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 100 MILES OF A LINE RUNNING FROM 10N143E TO 5N151E. FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W PLEASE REFER TO
TCPPQ1 /WTPQ31 PGUM/.

A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF POHNPEI RUNS FROM EQ159E TO 6N158E.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE
EQUATOR AND 3N FROM 156E TO 162E.

TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 2N FROM
174E TO 177E.

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 8.4N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 141.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 9.3N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.3N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.3N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.3N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.8N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.2N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 141.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 MAR 2010 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 8:51:32 N Lon : 140:48:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 999.2mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 3.2 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.6mb

Center Temp : -56.3C Cloud Region Temp : -51.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

TPPN11 PGTW 221829

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (E OF YAP)

B. 22/1730Z

C. 8.8N

D. 140.9E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING 2.5 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ROSS

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to Tropical Storm 02W

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 9.1N 140.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 140.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.1N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 11.1N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 12.3N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.4N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.6N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 139.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST OF YAP,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A 221628Z AMSR-E
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG
WITH ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS USED FOR THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IS PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND TS 02W IS LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL TAU 72. AT THAT TIME, AN
UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW TS
02W TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. INTENSITIES WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH TAU 72 WHEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
VWS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NEARLY ALL THE DYNAMICAL AIDS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR AND GFDN, HINT AT WEAK RECURVATURE. GFS
AND NOGAPS ARE THE ONLY TRACKERS THAT COMPLETE A CLASSIC RECURVATURE
INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE
DUE TO SHEAR BEFORE RECURVATURE CAN OCCUR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z,
231500Z AND 232100Z.//
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