SIO : EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-EDZANI (07S)

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Exposed

[Chacor]

AXAU01 APRF 030709
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0709 UTC 03/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.2S
Longitude: 92.7E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/1800: 10.4S 91.8E: 045 [085]: 035 [065]: 996
+24: 04/0600: 10.8S 90.2E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 995
+36: 04/1800: 11.3S 88.5E: 110 [200]: 045 [085]: 992
+48: 05/0600: 11.8S 87.2E: 140 [260]: 055 [100]: 985
+60: 05/1800: 12.5S 86.0E: 190 [345]: 065 [120]: 978
+72: 06/0600: 13.2S 84.6E: 235 [435]: 075 [140]: 970
REMARKS:
Recent visible satellite imagery shows an exposed low level circulation center
[LLCC]. Dvorak based on a curved band wrap of 0.4/0.5 gives a DT of 2.5, this is
in agreement with the MET/PAT, so FT/CI is held at 2.5. Using a shear pattern
would yield a DT of less than 2.5 as centre is more than 1.25 degrees from the
dense overcast.

The centre was relocated at 03/0600 UTC to be further north and west than
previously expected upon receipt of visible satellite imagery. Deep convection
persists to the southwest of the LLCC.

03/0254 UTC ASCAT pass showed 25/30 knot winds in the western semicircle.

Moderate to strong easterly shear appears to be inhibiting development. The
system is expected to gradually intensify into a tropical cyclone in the next 12
to 18 hours with a strong NW monsoonal flow to the north and strong low level
SE'ly winds to the south.

The environment is conducive for intensification, particularly after 04/1200 UTC
as the system moves further southwest into an environment with decreasing wind
shear.

A mid-level ridge to the southeast of the LLCC is likely to steer the system to
the WSW through the forecast period. The forecast track has the system passing
west of 90E into La Reunion's area of responsibility during Monday 4 January.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

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Track

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Looking very disorganized

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WTXS21 PGTW 040230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030221ZJAN10//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 92.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 91.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ONLY SPORADIC BURSTS OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LLCC. A 031528Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS 25KT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LLCC, BUT WITH WEAKER
WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IN APPROXIMATELY 30KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE LACK OF SUSTAINED
CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR.
//
NNNN

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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0113 UTC 04/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.8S
Longitude: 90.7E
Location Accuracy: within 35 nm [65 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/1200: 11.2S 89.0E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 1002
+24: 05/0000: 11.7S 87.6E: 080 [150]: 030 [055]: 1002
+36: 05/1200: 12.3S 86.3E: 105 [195]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 06/0000: 12.9S 85.1E: 125 [230]: 040 [075]: 996
+60: 06/1200: 13.7S 83.7E: 190 [350]: 050 [095]: 989
+72: 07/0000: 14.3S 82.2E: 235 [435]: 050 [095]: 990
REMARKS:
Strong easterly shear is inhibiting development of the low. Recent IR satellite
imagery shows an exposed low level circulation center [LLCC]. Dvorak based on a
Shear pattern gives a DT of 1.5, PT agrees, so FT 1.5 and CI is held higher at
2.0. Maximum winds estimated to be at 30 knots based on synoptic forcing of
surface winds and convection in western quadrants.

The system is not expected to develop in the short term given the strong shear,
however development remains possible in the 36-72 hour time period given the
forecast reduction in upper level winds. Persisting WSW movement is likely given
the influence of the mid-level ridge to the southeast of the LLCC.

The low is likely to track west of 90E into La Reunion's area of responsibility
today.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system.

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ZCZC 017
WTIO30 FMEE 041229
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8
2.A POSITION 2010/01/04 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 87.8E
(TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/05 00 UTC: 10.8S/86.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/01/05 12 UTC: 11.5S/85.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/01/06 00 UTC: 12.3S/83.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/01/06 12 UTC: 13.0S/81.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/01/07 00 UTC: 13.6S/79.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/01/07 12 UTC: 14.1S/78.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THIS SYTEM WAS PREVIOUSLY MONITORED BY THE TCWC PERTH (IDENTIFIER
03U).
IT HAS CROSSED THE 90E AT ABOUT 0300Z, AND HAS THEREFORE REACHED THE
AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY OF RSMC LA REUNION.
THE SYSTEM HAS REINTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS; CONVECTION HAS
REBUILT AT ABOUT 00Z. HOWEVER IT HAS REMAINED FLUCTUATING AND THE
LLCC
WAS LARGELY EXPOSED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE
VERY LAST HOURS, AND IS CLOSER TO THE ESTIMATED CENTRE.
AS SHOWN THANKS TO THE ARC OF CIRRUS EAST OF THE SYSTEM, THE SYSTEM
STILL
UNDERGOES A STRONG EASTERLY WINDSHEAR. THIS WINDSHEAR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN BEFORE RANGE 48, BUT WITH A FORECAST TRACK IN
THE
SAME DIRECTION THAN THE WINDSHEAR, THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD BE
WEAKENED.
LOW LEVELS INFLOWS AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ARE VERY GOOD UP TO RANGE
72H
.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY REGULARLY.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MODELS, WHICH ARE RATHER IN
GOOD
AGREEMENT, DESPITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOTION.=
NNNN

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Latest

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ZCZC 641
WTIO30 FMEE 050025
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8
2.A POSITION 2010/01/05 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1S / 86.9E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/05 12 UTC: 12.0S/85.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2010/01/06 00 UTC: 12.9S/84.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/01/06 12 UTC: 14.0S/82.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/01/07 00 UTC: 14.8S/80.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/01/07 12 UTC: 15.4S/79.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/01/08 00 UTC: 15.6S/77.1E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND
PRESENTS A CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING OVER ABOUT 4 TENS.
THE MENTIONNED FIX IN THIS WARNING IS VERY APPROXIMATELY DUE TO THE
LACK
OF CLEAR MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE THE F16 SWATH 04/1301Z.
LLCC SEEMS TO REMAIN ON THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CCC UNDERGOING A
STRONG
EASTERLY WINDSHEAR BUT WITH A TRACK GLOBALLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION
THAN
THE WINDSHEAR, THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD BE WEAKENED.
THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED WEAKENING ON AND AFTER TAU 24 BUT DIVERGENCE
SHOULD BE GOOD ONLY EQUATORWARD.
LOW LEVELS INFLOWS AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ARE VERY GOOD UP TO RANGE
72H
.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY REGULARLY TODAY AND ON AND
AFTER
TOMORROW AS IT UNDERGOES IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, SYSTEM
SHOULD DEEPENING MORE CLEARLY.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MODELS, WHICH ARE RATHER IN
GOOD
AGREEMENT, DESPITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOTION.=
NNNN

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Easterly shear

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WTXS21 PGTW 050130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1S 88.0E TO 13.2S 82.9E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 042330Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 87.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S
87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 87.1E, APPROXIMATELY 885 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS WITH THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEGINNING TO DECREASE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). VWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW.
SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE STR. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 060130Z.//
NNNN

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ZCZC 686
WTIO30 FMEE 050637
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8
2.A POSITION 2010/01/05 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9S / 85.8E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/05 18 UTC: 11.7S/84.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/01/06 06 UTC: 12.5S/82.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/01/06 18 UTC: 13.3S/81.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/01/07 06 UTC: 13.7S/79.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/01/07 18 UTC: 14.1S/78.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/01/08 06 UTC: 14.4S/76.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
SYSTEM IS STILL ILL-DEFINED. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND LATEST ASCAT
DATA
(03:52Z) SUGGEST THE SYSTEM STILL HAVE AN ILL-DEFINED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ELONGATED CENTER WITHIN ITS BROAD CLOCWISE CIRCULATION. STONG DEEP
CONVECTION WITH SOME FAIRLY GOOD OUTFLOW, HAS SUSTAINED OVER THE
WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE MAIN CENTER HAS JUST APPEARED EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. A
SECONDARY VORTEX (VISIBLE ON SSMIS OF 2312Z) IS LOCATED AT MORE THAN
150
NM SOUTH EAST OF THE MAIN CENTER. ASCAT DATA CONFIRM INTENSITY
ANALYSIS
WITH WINDS IN THE 25 KT RANGE. MSLP IS DERIVED FROM DATA BUOY (53567)
WHICH SHOWS A MINIMA
L VALUE OF 999 HPA AT 2300Z (CORRECTED FROM THE BAROMETRIC TIDE)
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN
AS
THE SYSTEM SHOULD GET CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
SOUTWARDS.
DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE GOOD MAINLY EQUATORWARDS.
LOW LEVELS INFLOWS AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ARE VERY GOOD UP TO RANGE
72H
.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY SLOWLY FIRST AND THEN CLOSER TO
THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MODELS, WHICH ARE RATHER IN
GOOD
AGREEMENT, DESPITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOTION.=
NNNN

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Latest

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Latest

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ZCZC 242
WTIO30 FMEE 051850
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8
2.A POSITION 2010/01/05 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 84.5E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: SO: NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1500
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/06 06 UTC: 13.0S/83.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/01/06 18 UTC: 13.9S/81.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/01/07 06 UTC: 14.6S/79.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/01/07 18 UTC: 15.0S/77.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/01/08 06 UTC: 15.5S/75.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/01/08 18 UTC: 16.0S/74.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
ASCAT DATA 05/1626Z ENABLE NOW TO IDENTIFY THE SINGLE CENTRE OF THE
SYSTEM, LOCATED IN THE EASTERN VICINITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WINDS
APPAEARS RATHER WEAK CLOSE TO THE CENTRE (2O KT) BUT REACH 30 KT EVEN
35
KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LOCALISATION OF THE CENTRE IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE BU
OY 53567 MOTION TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST OVER THE LAST HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN
AS
THE SYSTEM SHOULD GET CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
SOUTHWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVOURABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE GOOD MAINLY EQUATORWARDS. LOW LEVELS INFLOWS AND
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ARE VERY GOOD UP TO RANGE 72H.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MODELS, WHICH ARE RATHER IN
GOOD
AGREEMENT, DESPITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOTION. IT FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE
EUROPEAN CONSENSUS.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

05/2030 UTC 11.9S 84.5E T2.0/2.0 98S -- Southwest Indian

30 knots

[HURAKAN]

Shear continues to impact this system

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 801
WTIO30 FMEE 060026
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8
2.A POSITION 2010/01/06 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8S / 83.5E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: SO: NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/06 12 UTC: 13.7S/82.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2010/01/07 00 UTC: 14.4S/80.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/01/07 12 UTC: 15.0S/79.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/01/08 00 UTC: 15.5S/77.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/01/08 12 UTC: 16.1S/76.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/01/09 00 UTC: 16.7S/74.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE DATA AQUA 05/1927Z AND AMSU 05/2022Z ENABLE
TO
LOCATE THE CENTRE WITH FAIR RELIABILITY, AT ABOUT 40 NM IN THE
SOUTHEAST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
DUE TO THE DIFFICULTIES TO LOCATE THE CENTRE EARLIER, DIRECTION OF
THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SMOOTHED OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS.
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GET CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS LOCATED SOUTHWARDS, AND WINDSHEAR SHOULD THEREFORE
WEAKEN.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVOURABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE GOOD MAINLY EQUATORWARDS. LOW LEVELS INFLOWS AND
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ARE VERY GOOD UP TO RANGE 72H.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MODELS, WHICH ARE RATHER IN
GOOD
AGREEMENT, DESPITE A DIFFERENCE IN MOTION (NOGAPS AND GFDN ONLY ARE
DIFFERENT FROM THE CONSENSUS).=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

First visible

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First Warning from JTWC

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050121ZJAN2010//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.5S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.4S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.0S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.3S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.4S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.2S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.7S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 765 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TC 07S HAS SLOWLY BEEN ORGANIZING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON 2.5 DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW
AND FMEE. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ELONGATION IN THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, WITH A 051627Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
THE ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATES THE LLCC IS STILL ORGANIZING AS COM-
PARED TO PREVIOUS ASCAT PASSES THAT INDICATED A GREATER EXTENT OF
ELONGATION IN THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS CREATING A DIVERGENT PATTERN OVER THE
SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
RELATIVE LOCATION OF THE LLCC TO THE STR, THERE IS STILL MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
SOUTHWEST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SLOW INTENSIFI-
CATION AS THE VWS DECREASES AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODEL DATA. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 050121Z JAN 10
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050130) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z AND 070300Z.//