ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[CJPILOT]

so that means a major now?

A growing major...

[GCANE]

UL Trough centered at 32N 60W is developing an enhanced poleward outflow channel.

Equatorward outflow channel is well established.

Ventilation is nearly ideal.

[terrapintransit]

so that means a major now?[/quote]

Yes, and expected to intensify further, up to 145 mph in the next 48 hours[/quote]

It would seem this could easily make it to CAT 5 imo

[CJPILOT]

UL Trough centered at 32N 60W is developing an enhanced poleward outflow channel.

Equatorward outflow channel is well established.

Ventilation is nearly ideal.

And a wobble included...I think he is showing a vortex tilt.

[terrapintransit]

UL Trough centered at 32N 60W is developing an enhanced poleward outflow channel.

Equatorward outflow channel is well established.

Ventilation is nearly ideal.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... r200-0.GIF


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... gEuw-0.GIF

What exactly does this mean...more of a NW turn soon?

Edited by CM to take out [img] tags

[UpTheCreek]

Where's KWT??? Haven't seen him here in a good while now?

[AdamFirst]

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

Big storm...don't be surprised if the watches expanded a little bit more north in the Bahamian islands

[WmE]

so that means a major now?

Yes, and expected to intensify further, up to 145 mph in the next 48 hours[/quote]

It would seem this could easily make it to CAT 5 imo [/quote]

Ehh, don't go to far.

[CJPILOT]

UL Trough centered at 32N 60W is developing an enhanced poleward outflow channel.

Equatorward outflow channel is well established.

Ventilation is nearly ideal.


What exactly does this mean...more of a NW turn soon?

It means the conditions for intensification are almost perfect.

[GCANE]

What exactly does this mean...more of a NW turn soon?

No, it just means a very good chance for intensification.

Also, it looks like a new eyewall hot-tower maybe beginning to fire.

This may nail RI.

[MGC]

PR should miss the eyewall provided Earl remains on a 285 heading...however the BVI may not be so fortunate...they appear to be in the direct path of an intensifying Cat-3. I am growing more concerned for a potential eastcoast threat. Models again are trending westward as they have for the life of this system and the official NHC track is on the right side of model guidance.....MGC

[fox13weather]

Remember, as intense as "Earl" might be heading up the east coast, even if the center stays just 100 miles east of land then the impacts to land will be minimal. The impacts on the west side of a storm are always over exaggerated.

[Crostorm]

[AdamFirst]

Remember, as intense as "Earl" might be heading up the east coast, even if the center stays just 100 miles east of land then the impacts to land will be minimal. The impacts on the west side of a storm are always over exaggerated.

This is true. Look at the current presentation of Earl: while it's no picnic on the west side, the east side is alot worse.

[SkeetoBite]

[OuterBanker]

I do not like the way things are going. Was that a tpc statement abour westward shift?
I must admit though Earl is a beautiful classic hurricane.
To be honest I don't even want a brush with this monster.

[CrazyC83]

Remember, as intense as "Earl" might be heading up the east coast, even if the center stays just 100 miles east of land then the impacts to land will be minimal. The impacts on the west side of a storm are always over exaggerated.

Good point, which definitely applies for the I-95 corridor. I haven't seen a model that brings it well inland. It is immediate coast areas (eastern NC, the Hampton Roads area, eastern Long Island, southeast New England and Atlantic Canada) that are at greatest risk.

[GCANE]

Raw T# at 6.5 now.

A real RI.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt07L.html

[jhpigott]

Earl is going to have to start gaining some meaningful latitude for that track to verify

[micktooth]

Remember, as intense as "Earl" might be heading up the east coast, even if the center stays just 100 miles east of land then the impacts to land will be minimal. The impacts on the west side of a storm are always over exaggerated.

Thank you FOX13, but "always" is a very strong word. I lived in NOLA during Katrina and we were on the west side of the storm.