ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[wxman57]

Appears to be stair-stepping. Took a significant NW jog around St. Martin. Now it's going west for a bit, then it'll jog WNW-NW again. Southern edge of hurricane force winds is already at San Juan's latitude, so it appears San Juan is not going to see more than TS winds as Earl passes NE of the island.

[cycloneye]

If you dont see me here later, is because of this big band comming to San Juan that may cut the power.

[canes04]

Appears to be really slowing down as well.

[SoupBone]

If you dont see me here later, is because of this big band comming to San Juan that may or may not cut the power.

Wow man batten down the hatches and be safe! That is a nasty squall you have heading to you.

[artist]

If you dont see me here later, is because of this big band comming to San Juan that may cut the power.

stay safe Luis!

[Maritimer71]

The Canadian Hurricane Center has already issued an information statement on Earl for Atlantic Canada...

WOCN32 CWHX 301200
HURRICANE EARL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.26 AM ADT MONDAY
30 AUGUST 2010.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY STATEMENT REGARDING POSSIBLE FUTURE IMPACT OF
HURRICANE EARL IN EASTERN CANADA.

BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND COMPUTER MODELS..
HURRICANE EARL COULD POSSIBLY..REPEAT..POSSIBLY..AFFECT WEATHER IN
EASTERN CANADA IN THE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THERE IS A VERY
BROAD RANGE OF FUTURE TRACKS FOR HURRICANE EARL WHICH IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACK SCENARIOS
ARE AS FAR WEST AS MAINE TO AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
THUS..IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO SPEAK OF WEATHER IMPACTS SPECIFIC TO
THIS STORM. REGULAR FORECASTS FOR EARL COULD BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

THE PRIMARY MESSAGE AT THIS POINT IS TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED
FORECASTS UNDER THIS HEADER AND THE CHC WEBSITE..AND TO NOTE
THAT THE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY TIMEFRAME IS THE PERIOD OF POSSIBLE
IMPACT OR CLOSEST APPROACH TO EASTERN CANADA.

END FOGARTY

[CrazyC83]

Based on current Recon, I don't see enough evidence to raise it to Cat 3 for this advisory (91 kt SFMR, 111 kt FL) - 95 kt seems reasonable.

[neospaceblue]

I am extremely scared here. The forecast has my area in the cone with 115-mph winds. Isabel was bad enough at 100-mph, but I don't think we can handle a Cat3 up here.

[Crostorm]

St.John webcam




http://www.serendipity.vi/

[CrazyC83]

I am extremely scared here. The forecast has my area in the cone with 115-mph winds. Isabel was bad enough at 100-mph, but I don't think we can handle a Cat3 up here.

It would have to make landfall around Surf City to put you in the Cat 2-3 winds. A near-miss would likely be similar or slightly less than Isabel wind-wise if a Cat 3 at that point. The forecast track (which IMO is a bit too far right) would let you off fairly easy.

[cycloneye]

Crazy,100kts at 11?

[AdamFirst]

You guys up north are worrying too much at this point...its still at least 4 days away.

[x-y-no]

I am extremely scared here. The forecast has my area in the cone with 115-mph winds. Isabel was bad enough at 100-mph, but I don't think we can handle a Cat3 up here.

No need to be really worried yet - the highest probability is still that Earl passes well east of you.

I would suggest reviewing what supplies you would need to get by without power for a while, and if the next couple of full advisories keep trending left it'll be time to go get those supplies.

[Recurve]

Latest radar showing band sweeping Puerto Rico.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[JPmia]

Bit of advice from a Floridian. If any of you up north are worried about Earl then the best way to deal with the anxiety is to go out and get some supplies that you think you will need if it does in fact come your way. It works for me everytime we are in the cone down here!

[CrazyC83]

Crazy,100kts at 11?

I don't think so yet, at least I wouldn't go there as the data is not conclusive enough. A dropsonde found a 960mb pressure though.

[CJPILOT]

A very interesting shift to the west by the models. With some models indicating some sort of North America landfall, it is going to be an interesting few days. Any further movement west with have serious implications for interests from North Carolina to Cape Cod and further north.

The re-curvature and interaction with the high has become more tenuous over the latest model run. In my opinion all interests along the east coast of the U.S. need to take note. Even if the storm does not make landfall it does appear the east coast is in for a close pass that could bring severe weather to a lot of areas that are not yet expecting it.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SoupBone]

You guys up north are worrying too much at this point...its still at least 4 days away.

At this point they should be vigilant and get their plans in order. You realize the logistical side of evacuations if they become necessary? If the NE Coast states are anything like the gulf coast states their EM/HLS officials are meeting right now to discuss current plans. Better to be prepared than caught off guard.

[Gustywind]

Closeup of Earl becoming a strong cane...

[Gustywind]

If you dont see me here later, is because of this big band comming to San Juan that may cut the power.

Be vigilant Luis, this boy is a strong one, be aware!