ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[sunnyday]

Thank you, wxman, for your explanation of the recurves. I appreciate your taking the time to help me understand.

[weatherguy2]

I think some people have explained this before but the hurricane is not going to go directly from one point to the other. Igor will most likely approach the point past Bermuda while it's gradually curving from the N to the NNE and NE. This means that Igor could curve right on top of Bermuda and even just to the west of it.

Igor could do anything within the error cone but for now the NHC has Igor passing just east of Bermuda. It only takes a 75-100 mile east shift to keep the core hurricane winds just offshore.

That’s actually incorrect because storms don’t move in straight lines from point to point as illustrated on the chart. If the track line were smoothed out, the eye would indeed go directly over Bermuda. That’s why I think the line should not be included on the charts. But you are certainly correct in stating that Igor (more precisely, its center) could do anything (go anywhere) within the error cone.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yep, I agree, 100%, The western Eye wall will pretty much pass right over Bermuda if the NHC Advisory #39 forecast track is right.
Hurricanes in the large scale have smooth track lines not jagged. The NHC lines are not for a real track, they only connect the forecasted points. The best of the early cycle 18z models also follow the spline line on my map below.
here is a map I made to explain to people that are confused:

[Battlebrick]

I think recon is out, if anyone can update us with the Google Earth pics and stuff, that would be great (I have no clue how haha)

But yeah, I see an eye coming, probably exiting EWRC. Wind field is going to be bigger than big.

[weatherguy2]

A map I made to compare the size of Igor to the world's largest: Typhoon Tip (For those that don't know, Tip occurred in the Pacific)
Igor might very well become the largest recorded in the Atlantic, it's close.

[baitism]

Eye looks like it is clearing out. EWRC completing?

[hurricaneCW]

Wow, that's amazing how Tip would fit in the Atlantic. If Igor were as large as Tip and was moving toward the east coast, then we'd have tropical storm force winds from the Florida Keys to the Northern Mid-Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Getting stronger again.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

[cycloneye]

[Macrocane]

Igor is such an amazing and very very interesting storm unfortunately Bermuda is on its way.

[Battlebrick]

Recon just found a pressure of 939 mb.

[yzerfan]

Headlines from the Royal Gazette

http://www.royalgazette.com/rg/Article/ ... ctionId=60

http://www.royalgazette.com/rg/Article/ ... ctionId=60

Thankfully, they're shutting down the Causeway early this time. IIRC, that's where the Fabian deaths occurred.

[cpdaman]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

wobble wobble west......

hopefully igor doesn't have any tricks up his sleeve....

[HurricaneRobert]

Karl took his thunder for a little while, but now look who is still there in the Atlantic.

[CrazyC83]

FL winds support 105 kt but the large size means the 90% rule probably is not quite right. I would keep it at 95 kt despite the low pressure - such huge storms typically have pressure mismatches.

[weatherguy2]

Recon: Extrap. Sfc. Press: 936.2 mb

Dropsonde: 939mb (actual pressure)

[Chacor]

48h forecast point literally right over Bermuda. Not looking good.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 63.2W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

[HURAKAN]

poor Julia!

[bob rulz]

Igor doesn't seem to want to strengthen. The size seems to be interfering with his ability to consolidate - lets hope it stays that way for the sake of Bermuda!

poor Julia!

Seems that Igor needs a bit more than the fishes for breakfast this morning!