ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[cpdaman]

Brian Norcross (not at the desk) on TWC said he really thinks it is possible that Igor may be going through another eyewall replacement cycle.

perhaps he would like to expand more LOL

[artist]

Brian Norcross (not at the desk) on TWC said he really thinks it is possible that Igor may be going through another eyewall replacement cycle.

perhaps he would like to expand more LOL

let's hope not!

[plasticup]

Brian Norcross on TWC said he really thinks it is possible that Igor may be going through another eyewall replacement cycle.

From the latest NHC discussion (number 39):

DATA FROM THE PLANE ALSO INDICATED A RATHER BROAD WIND FIELD...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DOUBLE WIND MAXIMA

[artist]

Brian Norcross on TWC said he really thinks it is possible that Igor may be going through another eyewall replacement cycle.

From the latest NHC discussion (number 39):

DATA FROM THE PLANE ALSO INDICATED A RATHER BROAD WIND FIELD...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DOUBLE WIND MAXIMA

gosh, I hate to see that happening.

[hurricaneCW]

Bermuda might get lashed with hours and hours of strong winds, good chance at hurricane force winds for several hours as well. Igor is looking pretty good on satellite, if he is going through another EWRC, then there's a good chance he'll restrengthen once it is complete. I don't know about further expansion but with another EWRC, it could get a little bit larger, except instead of the tropical storm force winds expanding, maybe the hurricane force winds will expand more.

Igor's size is very Ike like, meaning if he ends up just to the west of Bermuda, then it could be trouble. By the way, does anyone have some good Bermuda web cams or is anyone on Bermuda right now.

[CapeCod1995]

Uhh...what does a double wind maxima mean? And does anyone think this storm has potential for to be larger than Typhoon Tip..a.k.a. the largest tropcial cyclone to ever form?

[cpdaman]

not much more time in high TCHP waters....6-10 hours (max)

however they may already be upwelled...due to the large fetch.

[hurricaneCW]

Uhh...what does a double wind maxima mean? And does anyone think this storm has potential for to be larger than Typhoon Tip..a.k.a. the largest tropcial cyclone to ever form?

Absolutely not, Tip was more than double the size of Igor right now. Tip was also far more powerful than Igor ever was, but Igor's size is still very impressive, especially for an Atlantic hurricane.

[mf_dolphin]

Uhh...what does a double wind maxima mean? And does anyone think this storm has potential for to be larger than Typhoon Tip..a.k.a. the largest tropcial cyclone to ever form?

Basically that means there is a second area around the eyewall of maximum winds. This is usually the sign that a second eyewall may be forming. That could also signal the start of another eyewall replacement cycle.

Here's a link to a shot that shows the two partial eyewalls.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc10/ATL/11L.IGOR/tmi/tmi_85h/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html

[abajan]

We got a nasty feeder band from Igor today.
Read about it in the Caribbean/Central America Thread.

[CapeCod1995]

Or is it possible that Igor will breach the size of Hurricane Faith?

[JahJa]

Im in Bermuda at the moment. Everything appears at the moment fine. A little wind, but otherwise the sea is calm and today was very sunny and hot. The only thing that appears to be destructive so far is the media. Ok this appears to be a very intense storm but im telling you the properganda is unbelievable. Perahps its because there is nothing newsworthy usually going on and now they have something to report on they are just going wild beyond belief. The are scaremongering people into panic buying. The houses and buildings are in bermuda are gerenally well constructed and can withstand alot. The main/majority of damage from hurricane fabian in 2003 was caused by tornados.
I'll have to update you tomorrow and i'll try and get a picture or two up if there is anything to see. Having said that its almost a definite that the majority of the island is going to lose power at some point in time.

[lostinthetriangle]

Im in Bermuda at the moment. Everything appears at the moment fine. A little wind, but otherwise the sea is calm and today was very sunny and hot. The only thing that appears to be destructive so far is the media. Ok this appears to be a very intense storm but im telling you the properganda is unbelievable. Perahps its because there is nothing newsworthy usually going on and now they have something to report on they are just going wild beyond belief. The are scaremongering people into panic buying. The houses and buildings are in bermuda are gerenally well constructed and can withstand alot. The main/majority of damage from hurricane fabian in 2003 was caused by tornados.
I'll have to update you tomorrow and i'll try and get a picture or two up if there is anything to see. Having said that its almost a definite that the majority of the island is going to lose power at some point in time.

Too true Jahja But this is the way we islanders go.............even if it is just a tropical storm! When something as big as Igor comes around............we go crazy!

Looks like some of the outer bands are getting closer, about 300 kilometers out.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 11, 2010091800, , BEST, 0, 243N, 615W, 95, 947, HU

Up to 95kts.

[Blown Away]

I think some people have explained this before but the hurricane is not going to go directly from one point to the other. Igor will most likely approach the point past Bermuda while it's gradually curving from the N to the NNE and NE. This means that Igor could curve right on top of Bermuda and even just to the west of it.

Igor could do anything within the error cone but for now the NHC has Igor passing just east of Bermuda. It only takes a 75-100 mile east shift to keep the core hurricane winds just offshore.

[Normandy]

I think some people have explained this before but the hurricane is not going to go directly from one point to the other. Igor will most likely approach the point past Bermuda while it's gradually curving from the N to the NNE and NE. This means that Igor could curve right on top of Bermuda and even just to the west of it.

Igor could do anything within the error cone but for now the NHC has Igor passing just east of Bermuda. It only takes a 75-100 mile east shift to keep the core hurricane winds just offshore.

And it only takes a 100 miles west shift for Bermuda to be clobbered by the brunt of Igor. See what I did there? That's two posts in a row where you have downplayed the threat Igor poses to Bermuda. At this point they are under the gun and need to watch it. Will it go east of the island, maybe. Will it go west? Perhaps. Point is they need to watch it and prepare for the worst.

[warmer]

recent track is very northward, Bermuda might have chance now

[hurricaneCW]

recent track is very northward, Bermuda might have chance now

Not really, the motion is still toward the NW, Igor basically goes more westward for a few frames and then more to the north, the average motion is still around 310-315. It wouldn't take much for the core to miss Bermuda because the island is so tiny but the majority of the models pass Igor right over or just to the west of Bermuda with a few just to the east. Hurricane force winds are likely but maybe they can be spared the worst of Igor. Yet at the same time, with such a large storm, they could get very severe impacts regardless.

[abajan]

I think some people have explained this before but the hurricane is not going to go directly from one point to the other. Igor will most likely approach the point past Bermuda while it's gradually curving from the N to the NNE and NE. This means that Igor could curve right on top of Bermuda and even just to the west of it.

Igor could do anything within the error cone but for now the NHC has Igor passing just east of Bermuda. It only takes a 75-100 mile east shift to keep the core hurricane winds just offshore.

That’s actually incorrect because storms don’t move in straight lines from point to point as illustrated on the chart. If the track line were smoothed out, the eye would indeed go directly over Bermuda. That’s why I think the line should not be included on the charts. But you are certainly correct in stating that Igor (more precisely, its center) could do anything (go anywhere) within the error cone.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

00z Best Track

AL, 11, 2010091800, , BEST, 0, 243N, 615W, 95, 947, HU

Up to 95kts.

If that is the case, the pressure should come down as well to around 942mb.