ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Steve]

>>Looking at radar I would put the center of the radar circulation just south of Marianna, FL which is roughly 100 miles ENE of Destin, FL

Hard to say. And it looks like they moved the floater on the last frame of the visible. But I can see where those banding features to the north represent a position north of the center which would mean it was across the state line.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[perk]

The Euro forecast a Texas hit last week for the initial landfall, too.

Point taken,but does that automatically qualify it to be wrong this time around.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Currently using the HWRF for intensity and track guidance. If it can manage to go as south as indicated by the HWRF it could become a moderate/strong TS. However, if it does a further north track as indicated by the 18z CMC, then a weaker system will likely be seen. Regardless, Louisiana and surrounding states will be receiving copious amounts of heavy rainfall.

[Ivanhater]

A little surprised there has been a lot of lighting going on now in Pensacola. I thought it would be mostly tropical downpours. Maybe when the low gets over water, it will take on more tropical characteristics....pretty loud outside now

[Steve]

You're absolutely right perk. We don't know. But most recent guidance suggests it's less likely.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... tab2200108

[hurricaneCW]

Great inflow and southern outflow, convection really blossoming now as well and the low is still 50 or so miles from reaching the water. This really looks like a developing system, not one of those Bonnie and Colin sheared messes.

[KWT]

Hmmm,wonder if they will up the % chance of development in the next TWO...

Yeah I'd imagine they will up it to 40%, probably won't go much higher then that till its over water but the real odds IMO are probably quite alot higher then that IMO...

[thetruesms]

First rumbles of thunder here. On the plus side of this whole thing, there are some parts of the Panhandle, and really that tri-state area, that could really use some rain.

It's really been able to hold enough of what it did have together to give it a head start over water. Otherwise I'd have significant doubts. But I'm impressed with what it's got to work with, especially over that southern half along the trough

[Ikester]

You know, 50 miles further south or north means the difference of mere hours of warning to days. 50 miles further south than being forecast, puts it in Galveston. 50 miles north and it may never see water. There is a lot of realestate that is in play right now. Obviously, the further south, the more likely it is to be something much more significant. Interesting scenario shaping up here. I've never seen code orange over land. LOL

[KWT]

Quite a few reports from the looks of things of thunder and lightning, there seems to be quite alot of convective instablity with this one, probably will see the convection continue to increase as it edges closer to the water and convective isntablity peaks.

[KWT]

You know, 50 miles further south or north means the difference of mere hours of warning to days. 50 miles further south than being forecast, puts it in Galveston. 50 miles north and it may never see water. There is a lot of realestate that is in play right now. Obviously, the further south, the more likely it is to be something much more significant. Interesting scenario shaping up here. I've never seen code orange over land. LOL

May not work like that though Ikester, for example the NAM is well south of the models at 36-48hrs yet ends up only a small bit to the west of the rest of the models...

[Aric Dunn]

well looking at some obs.. it seems the sea breeze has developed all along the panhandle. That means the surface circ is very weak at the moment. So tonight when we lose the sea breeze is when things should start taking shape.

[Ikester]

You know, 50 miles further south or north means the difference of mere hours of warning to days. 50 miles further south than being forecast, puts it in Galveston. 50 miles north and it may never see water. There is a lot of realestate that is in play right now. Obviously, the further south, the more likely it is to be something much more significant. Interesting scenario shaping up here. I've never seen code orange over land. LOL

May not work like that though Ikester, for example the NAM is well south of the models at 36-48hrs yet ends up only a small bit to the west of the rest of the models...

Well it's the NAM. I'm watching trends closely. I'm not so much concerned over a hurricane here in the Houston area, but the rain sure would be nice. Who woulda thunk after the nearly 14" of rain here in July! It's true though, we're dry as a powder house here!

[Hurricane]

so is Texas pretty much out of the woods on this one?

No. Texas is in the cone.

Texas is only in the cone because when the center is dissipating inland near Alexandria, LA the cone size is quite large, reaching all the way to SE TX. It's not going to make landfall in Texas.

Hmmm... Wxman could be wrong! LOL.

[hurr3]

Has anyone heard from JB today?? He liked this system on Sat. Curious to see his thoughts today!!

[KWT]

well looking at some obs.. it seems the sea breeze has developed all along the panhandle. That means the surface circ is very weak at the moment. So tonight when we lose the sea breeze is when things should start taking shape.

Yeah that may help to disrupt the southern part of the circulation a little but I've imagine given the broad nature of the low that won't cause too many issues, I'm liking this one Aric, what do you think about it?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well here in SE LA we are now under a flash flood watch trough Wednesday with 3-5 inches of rain forecast. BUT according to the discussion that is with the way things are now assuming just the remant low moves through here. I am sure if this becomes Danielle the totals will go up.

[duris]

Has anyone heard from JB today?? He liked this system on Sat. Curious to see his thoughts today!!

He posted a radar loop as area to watch and satellite pic on Twitter. Only comment was TPC hatching an area to watch and TD5 headed back to gulf.

[srainhoutx]

New Orleans afternoon AFD...snip...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THE REMANANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MS AND SE LA. SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WED AND START
TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER WED ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUT A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ENTIRE AREA FROM 00Z TUE THRU 18Z WED.

[wxman57]

so is Texas pretty much out of the woods on this one?

Texas is only in the cone because when the center is dissipating inland near Alexandria, LA the cone size is quite large, reaching all the way to SE TX. It's not going to make landfall in Texas.

Hmmm... Wxman could be wrong! LOL.

No way I was wrong (yet), it made landfall near the LA/MS border. That post above was for the first landfall.