ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, apart from the circulation near Barbados,if you look closely to this image, you may pickup a tiny eddy just east of Dominica (Island bellow the butterfly one, Guadeloupe)

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/ATL/48.PGI48L/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20101001.1815.goes13.x.vis1km_high.48PGI48L.15kts-1010mb-153N-599W.100pc.jpg[/img

yeah that whole area looks promising..

[Blown Away]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim16vis.html
OMIT frames 9, 10 , 11 .... look near Barbados..

I see it @13.5N/58W, very weak with no convection. Maybe just and eddy, this area is not even in the 30% shaded area?

[FLpanhandle91]

What about the convection at 10 N / 38 W? Looks much more promising. It almost looks like banding is starting to occur. I think this will be 98L soon..

[SouthDadeFish]

The smaller area by Barbados seems to have lost some vorticity recently...

[Gustywind]

[wxman57]

I see a fairly clear LLC near 16.8N/51.8W. They're always easier to see without all that nasty convection hiding them, I always say. I'd estimate 48-hr development potential is in the 10% range. Beyond 48 hrs maybe 30% as it passes just north of the NE Caribbean Sunday. May slow down a good bit near northern PR/DR then get picked up by a front pushing off the East U.S. Coast beyond 5 days.

[Dean4Storms]

I see a fairly clear LLC near 16.8N/51.8W. They're always easier to see without all that nasty convection hiding them, I always say. I'd estimate 48-hr development potential is in the 10% range. Beyond 48 hrs maybe 30% as it passes just north of the NE Caribbean Sunday. May slow down a good bit near northern PR/DR then get picked up by a front pushing off the East U.S. Coast beyond 5 days.

Yep, that is the only real spin I see as well. Sure is lacking convection though so not sure it remains much longer.

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[Vortex]

nice spin just ene of guadeloupe...

[Vortex]

looking at the hi-res IR2 and surface observations it appears there may be a developing LLC to the ENE of barbados....The winds had been SE all day then switched to the west late today and have been ene/ne or light variable the last 3 hours...

1:00 PM 87.8 °F 75.2 °F 66% 29.80 in 6.2 miles SE 9.2 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
2:00 PM 87 °F 77 °F 65% 29.78 in 16 miles SE 9.2 mph - - Partly Cloudy
2:00 PM 86.0 °F 77.0 °F 74% 29.77 in 6.2 miles SE 9.2 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
3:00 PM 84.2 °F 73.4 °F 70% 29.77 in 5.6 miles ESE 9.2 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
4:00 PM 78.8 °F 73.4 °F 83% 29.77 in 3.1 miles West 10.4 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain Showers
4:17 PM 75.2 °F 73.4 °F 94% 29.80 in 1.9 miles West 15.0 mph - N/A Rain Rain Showers
5:00 PM 75.2 °F 73.4 °F 94% 29.77 in 3.7 miles West 10.4 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain
6:00 PM 75.2 °F 73.4 °F 94% 29.80 in 5.0 miles ENE 8.1 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain
7:00 PM 75.2 °F 73.4 °F 94% 29.80 in 5.0 miles NE 4.6 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain
8:00 PM 76 °F 75 °F 97% 29.83 in 6 miles 1.2 mph - - Overcast

[Vortex]

there has also been a recent burst of (2345Z)convection to the ene of barbados near the same area where close-up vis looked suspect earlier today...

[Vortex]

remember just yesterday we had an invest in this area and tonight we now have convection firing very near where the models would have placed it...


Yesterday's invest: BAMD


BAMD 12.5N 53.1W 13.3N 55.5W 14.2N 57.6W 15.0N 59.4W

[Vortex]

13.9N/57W is where I think we may have a developing LLC...

[Vortex]

At 9pm...Buoy just East of the where the LLC appears to be forming has just gone from sse/s to ssw....


14.600 N 56.201 W (14°36'0" N 56°12'2" W)
Conditions at 41101 as of
0100 GMT on 10/02/2010: Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 12.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.06 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.3 °F

[Vortex]

Historical obs from same buoy today:

10 02 0000 S 12.0 - 6.6 8 - - 29.83 +0.06 81.5 83.7 74.1 - - -
10 01 2300 SE 14.0 - 6.9 8 - - 29.81 +0.05 82.4 83.5 75.2 - - -
10 01 2200 SSE 13.0 - 5.9 8 - - 29.79 +0.02 82.8 83.8 75.2 - - -
10 01 2100 SE 12.0 - 6.9 8 - - 29.77 -0.01 83.3 84.0 75.7 - - -
10 01 2000 SSE 14.0 - 7.5 8 - - 29.76 -0.04 82.8 83.8 75.2 - - -
10 01 1900 SE 11.1 - 6.6 8 - - 29.77 -0.06 82.6 83.8 74.5 - - -
10 01 1800 SE 13.0 - 5.9 7 - - 29.78 -0.06 82.4 84.0 73.8 - - -
10 01 1700 SE 8.9 - 6.6 8 - - 29.80 -0.06 82.2 83.8 75.9 - - -
10 01 1600 SE 6.0 - 6.6 8 - - 29.83 -0.03 81.5 84.0 75.7 - - -
10 01 1500 S 6.0 - 6.6 8 - - 29.84 +0.00 78.3 83.5 75.2 - - -
10 01 1400 E 8.9 - 6.6 8 - - 29.85 +0.03 78.1 83.3 75.9 - - -
10 01 1300 ENE 15.0 - 6.6 8 - - 29.86 +0.06 78.3 83.3 73.4 - - -
10 01 1200 SE 7.0 - 6.6 8 - - 29.84 +0.05 82.0 83.5 74.8 - - -
10 01 1100 ESE 8.0 - 6.2

[abajan]

The smaller area by Barbados seems to have lost some vorticity recently...

Whether it lost vorticity or not, we got tons of heavy duty rain in the southwest (and possibly other parts) of the island this afternoon. A woman even had to be rescued from her car which became submerged in raging flood waters. Oddly enough, today happens to be the 40th anniversary of the 1970 floods that produced over twenty inches of rain in about a six hour period.

[SootyTern]

over twenty inches of rain in about a six hour period.

had 14" in about that timeframe at my house during Katrina. Holy moly that's a lot of rain!!!

[supercane]

ASCAT missed the best track position at 00Z of
AL, 97, 2010100200, , BEST, 0, 168N, 523W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
but did catch the circulation around Barbados noted by others:

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity has increased

[Migle]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

2. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN