ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[wxman57]

No LLC according to obs across the A-B-C islands, just easterly winds there. It's hard to develop when the low-level flow is accelerating, as it often does in the eastern Caribbean. Low-level convergence will occur in the western Caribbean when it slows down late tomorrow or Friday. Question is, does it stall for a few days inland or offshore before being picked up by an approaching trof/front around next Wednesday?

[Vortex]

starting to slowly gel...right on schedule...location right where the GFS indicated...

[Vortex]

No LLC according to obs across the A-B-C islands, just easterly winds there. It's hard to develop when the low-level flow is accelerating, as it often does in the eastern Caribbean. Low-level convergence will occur in the western Caribbean when it slows down late tomorrow or Friday. Question is, does it stall for a few days inland or offshore before being picked up by an approaching trof/front around next Wednesday?

and thats the bigger question IMO 57...Those small details will be HUGE in terms of intensity

[HURAKAN]

Curacao reporting SSW winds

Wind from the SSW (200 degrees) at 3 MPH (3 KT)


Bonaire reporting S winds

Wind from the S (170 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 KT)

[SFLcane]

No LLC according to obs across the A-B-C islands, just easterly winds there. It's hard to develop when the low-level flow is accelerating, as it often does in the eastern Caribbean. Low-level convergence will occur in the western Caribbean when it slows down late tomorrow or Friday. Question is, does it stall for a few days inland or offshore before being picked up by an approaching trof/front around next Wednesday?

TPC just stated an LLC has formed this morning...according to surface obs, sateliite images, and radar data.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

[jlauderdal]

...it also appears that it'll make "landfall", so to speak, over the La Guajira province/peninusla, so the low has formed a bit south of what some thought yesterday, and that's critical per it's future movement:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... 2001-2.png

we need a poll, how many landfalls does the "center" make

i would say 4

[Frank2]

LOL, and I mean LOL - it's deja vu all over again for me!!!

Years ago, when Lixion Avila was not yet with NOAA (we was involved with UM at that time), one day he was at our office looking at the obs, and I asked him what he was doing, and he said he was looking for an ob with a west wind...

Some things NEVER change!!!

LOL

Ah - only 9:15 ET and my day is already made!!!

Once again, proof that the TWO is also based on who's writing it...

Frank

[Blown Away]

...it also appears that it'll make "landfall", so to speak, over the La Guajira province/peninusla, so the low has formed a bit south of what some thought yesterday, and that's critical per it's future movement:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... 2001-2.png

we need a poll, how many landfalls does the "center" make

i would say 4

Honduras/Cuba/SFL/Bahamas - 4 here!

Just like Wilma, the question will be does the center stall over land or water before being picked up by the trough! It's close but most of the model consensus says stall over water very near the coast.

[Frank2]

Right, but the thing to remember is that we are 6 weeks earlier than Wilma, so the screaming easteriles are still present down there...

[GCANE]

Looks like core is snapping in place now.

[x-y-no]

TPC just stated an LLC has formed this morning...according to surface obs, sateliite images, and radar data.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

Ummm ... "an area of low pressure" does not equal an LLC. It can just as well be an open wave.

[wxman57]

Aruba is located just south of the disturbance. It's reporting ESE winds at 10 kts. Bonaire and Curacao are well SE of the disturbance reporting light and somewhat variable winds, indicative of a land/sea breeze. There may be a weak area of low pressure, but no clear LLC this morning. Give it another 24-48 hours.

Crosshairs mark an extrapolation of 12Z NHC position. Hard to say that surface obs indicate a circulation.

[Frank2]

True - by the by, the easteriles aren't screaming along the coast - but per the above observations they sure are offshore (two ships with 20 and 30 knot easterly winds)...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

22/1145 UTC 13.0N 69.2W T1.0/1.0 95L

25 knots

[Bocadude85]

I would not be surprised if 95L makes landfall in Honduras and dissipates inland before the front has a chance to pick it up.

[KWT]

Of course Frank the thing is those winds could very easily be caused by the system itself, esp as it is a strong wave which has been producing 35-45mph gusts at times on its NE flank.

75-80W seems like the more likely region for development, will be interesting to see how long it spends overland, obviously the longer it spends the flabbier it'll be when it does eventually emerge and probably the weaker it'll be when it does try to make its escape.

[lonelymike]

The tropical wind models don't seem too impressed with 95-L. I wonder if this is because of the time it spends over land?

[KWT]

Land interaction will be quite important as to this ones strength, if it spends a while overland then obviously the chances of it being a powerful hurricane are reduced quite alot but if it manages to curve up quickly enough before landfall then obviously the opposite happens!

Its a real complex set-up but either way I think its quite probable this one ends up curving into Florida in the end, exactly where is hard to call though!

[lonelymike]

HPC thoughts this morning:

"DOWN SOUTH...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN /INVEST
95L/ TO THE NORTH ACROSS EITHER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR WESTERN
CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST/LARGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WAS DISCOUNTED.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HEADED NORTH TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST/FLORIDA IN 7-10 DAYS. THE DETAILS WILL BE COORDINATED WITH
NHC AT 16Z. STAY TUNED."

[wzrgirl1]

Right, but the thing to remember is that we are 6 weeks earlier than Wilma, so the screaming easteriles are still present down there...

Actually Frank Hurricane Wilma formed on Oct. 15...and hit us on the 24th...that makes it only about 3-4 weeks earlier....that can make a big difference as far as track.