ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

JB thinks near Alex location.

[Bailey1777]

hey wxwarrior,
two questions 1.where does your bro see this depression going in at? 2.what does jb say about gaston?
thanks Darren

[Wx_Warrior]

Hey Darren....

Bro thinks about where most models take....brownsville or south of there.

No word yet on Gastón from JB....

[WeatherGuesser]

Look at the size of the overall swirl on this thing.

[Bailey1777]

does anybody have a true heading and forward speed on this td?

[Florida1118]

Up to 30kts. Well on its way to Hermine. Still heading N...

[Wx_Warrior]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 95.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[ROCK]

ho hum...another BOC MX landfall....

[Migle]

Pretty much a given that where going to have Hermine from this one. Even though its going to Mexico, the States are still going to get some good rain out of this one.

[Florida1118]

Looks kinda..I dont know...Blobish? Doesnt really look quite as round on Rainbow. But defiantly is firing some good convection.

[Shuriken]

Pretty much a given that where going to have Hermine from this one. Even though its going to Mexico, the States are still going to get some good rain out of this one.

If it goes into Mexico, it'll be because (Hermine) can't buck the high -- which means the States (other than Brownsville, TX) won't see a drop.

[Migle]

Pretty much a given that where going to have Hermine from this one. Even though its going to Mexico, the States are still going to get some good rain out of this one.

If it goes into Mexico, it'll be because (Hermine) can't buck the high -- which means the States (other than Brownsville, TX) won't see a drop.

Models show it swinging back up after going through Mexico though, which would bring rain to Eastern Texas.

[Brent]

AL, 10, 2010090606, , BEST, 0, 211N, 948W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 40, 0, 0, L

TS Hermine!

[fasterdisaster]

Wow that was quick!

[lrak]

Wow lots of nasty color

looks like its more offshore.

[Florida1118]

Seriously? Hermine? Now I know I have to wait for the Advisory. If I try to sleep Ill just get up and check.

[TwisterFanatic]

Pretty much a given that where going to have Hermine from this one. Even though its going to Mexico, the States are still going to get some good rain out of this one.

If it goes into Mexico, it'll be because (Hermine) can't buck the high -- which means the States (other than Brownsville, TX) won't see a drop.

Nope, it is suppose to swing back to the north through central Texas and up into Oklahoma.

[TwisterFanatic]

Wow! already Hermine? That was really, really quick.

[Migle]

It has some really cold cloud tops and appears to be organizing rather quickly, so I am not surprised that the upgraded already.

Recon should be interesting today.

[Florida1118]

Well Shes not the waiting type I guess...In my personal forecast I still keep this at a 60mph TS. But thats just for my unscientific guess.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.