WPAC: Ex-Typhoon KOMPASU (1007/08W)

[StormingB81]

SHouldn't this say Typhoon now?

[Chacor]

SHouldn't this say Typhoon now?

It's still officially a Severe Tropical Storm.

[StormingB81]

just asking..lol I wonder what this will do tonight as last night it ramped way up..


Is that an EYE I see starting to develop..and would that support the 5.0 and 5.0 at 90 kts? can that be possible?

[Chacor]

Yes, an eye has been a bit evident on microwave.

[Infdidoll]

Interesting. Kadena Force Support put this on their site:


TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION RELEASE LOG

1. THIS IS THE LATEST BULLETIN ON TYPHOON Kompasu. AS OF 30/1900L, WE ARE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITION 2. AT 29/1500L, TYPHOON Kompasu WAS LOCATED 23.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 131.8 DEGREES EAST, WHICH IS 275 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. IT HAD WINDS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS NEAR ITS CENTER AND WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IS FORECASTING TYPHOON Kompasu TO BE LOCATED 8 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF KADENA BY 31/1700L.

2. IF TYPHOON Kompasu CONTINUES TO MOVE AS FORECAST, DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM 31/1300L TO 01/0200L. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON OKINAWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 70 KNOTS WITH 90 KNOT GUSTS FROM 31/1700L-31/2000L.

3. REMARKS: None

4. STAY ALERT FOR FUTURE CHANGES TO TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT 31/0100L OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

[StormingB81]

I know and JTWC and NWS all put 95 MPH with Gust at 115...WHo to believe? I guess only time will tell..

[Chacor]

JMA is up to 55 kt on Kompasu.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the storm structure, I would guess 80 kt for current intensity.

[Chacor]

Crazy, would you please put the disclaimer on such posts? Not doing so is unhelpful to our newer membrs tracking this storm who might trea it as fact.

[Infdidoll]

Weather Underground now predicting it to hit Okinawa as a Category 2...but also pushing back the landfall time to 9 p.m. tomorrow night.

[senorpepr]

TCNA21 RJTD 301200 CCA
CCAA 30120 47644 KOMPASU(1007) 10237 11312 12244 240// 93107=
LIONROCK(1006) 09207 11168 13234 235// 90000=

23.7N 131.2E T4.0/65 kt

It appears JMA may be ready to upgrade to typhoon status...

[P.K.]

Usually they don't go to TY status until T4.5 taking into account the 1min to 10min conversion.

[CrazyC83]

Crazy, would you please put the disclaimer on such posts? Not doing so is unhelpful to our newer membrs tracking this storm who might trea it as fact.

Added. There has indeed been a recent influx of new members.

[StormingB81]

Weather Underground now predicting it to hit Okinawa as a Category 2...but also pushing back the landfall time to 9 p.m. tomorrow night.

Wonder wha teveryone will say at the advisory here in a few minutes

[StormingB81]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If it is 80 Knots (92 mph) I wouldnt put it past saying that it COULD be over 100 mph sustained by morning! WHich will make it CAT 2 and then if it dont hit for another 16 more hours..WOW!

[P.K.]

Here is that 12Z advisory that Chacor mentioned.

WTPQ22 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 23.7N 131.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 311200UTC 28.0N 126.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 011200UTC 32.4N 123.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 021200UTC 37.4N 125.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[StormingB81]

JTWC advisory out yet?

Also might I add that The winds have picked up ALOT here in the last 24 hours.. IF and let me ad this....Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IF This keeps up we could have a MAJOR typhoon on our hands at about 8pm or so when they comes across here in Okinawa. Can it continue to peak like this?

[StormingB81]

SO Now the predictions are around 100 mph sustained and 120 mph gusting..wow this is getting interesting as more and more time passes.

Oh and I can see Typhoon Kompasu now in the Radar picture...

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 23.7N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 25.1N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 26.9N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 32.3N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 37.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 40.0N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 42.2N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 130.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 17 FT.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN




WTPQ22 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 24.0N 131.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 311500UTC 28.3N 126.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 011200UTC 32.4N 123.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 021200UTC 37.4N 125.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[senorpepr]

Latest TAF out of Kadena:

TAF RODN 3009/3109 09010G20KT 9999 VCSH SCT025 BKN030 QNH2968INS
TEMPO 3009/3012 03015G20KT 9000 -SHRA SCT015 BKN025
BECMG 3011/3012 02015G30KT 3200 SHRA VCTS SCT010CB BKN015 OVC020 QNH2964INS
BECMG 3100/3101 02025G35KT 3200 +SHRA VCTS SCT010CB BKN015 OVC020 QNH2962INS
TEMPO 3100/3109 0400 +TSRA BKN002 OVC010CB
BECMG 3105/3106 34030G45KT 3200 +SHRA VCTS SCT010CB BKN015 OVC020 QNH2960INS
BECMG 3108/3109 36055G85KT 3200 +SHRA VCTS SCT010CB BKN015 OVC020 QNH2959INS T28/3103Z T25/3016Z=