ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[ROCK]

that recurve is super early IMO....almost moves it north at one point in the run.....cant wait for the 12Z.....

[Wx_Warrior]

A little..it's been hinting a bit..I'll wait for another run or 2. Heck, it's almost as strong as the storm it sends out to see. I posted those models in the talking tropx thread.

Agree rock. Something weird about 95L.

[KWT]

Well what a bit surprise, the ECM is back on the recurve boat and we are back to total agreement for a recurve...so the 12z ECM was an outlier afterall...

[tolakram]

We need a storm before any of the models should be given any credit. All junk right now in my opinion. Reliable models jumping all over the place usually indicates that there is a question IF this is going to develop at all.

[cycloneye]

For the record only,here are the 12z Tropical Models as I agree with tolakram.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 211221
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1221 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100821 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100821  1200   100822  0000   100822  1200   100823  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.6N  31.0W   10.8N  31.7W   11.5N  32.3W   13.0N  33.4W
BAMD    10.6N  31.0W   10.8N  32.6W   10.8N  34.3W   10.8N  35.8W
BAMM    10.6N  31.0W   10.8N  32.0W   11.2N  33.1W   12.0N  34.3W
LBAR    10.6N  31.0W   11.2N  33.0W   11.9N  35.7W   12.6N  38.8W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          53KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          53KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100823  1200   100824  1200   100825  1200   100826  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.3N  36.3W   20.1N  44.9W   22.1N  53.3W   22.6N  55.5W
BAMD    11.1N  37.4W   13.5N  41.1W   18.7N  45.3W   24.9N  46.9W
BAMM    13.5N  36.5W   18.5N  43.5W   22.7N  50.9W   25.2N  54.6W
LBAR    13.2N  42.3W   14.1N  49.2W   15.5N  53.6W   35.5N  55.5W
SHIP        65KTS          81KTS          89KTS          90KTS
DSHP        65KTS          81KTS          89KTS          90KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.6N LONCUR =  31.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  10.4N LONM12 =  29.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  11.0N LONM24 =  26.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[perk]

Well what a bit surprise, the ECM is back on the recurve boat and we are back to total agreement for a recurve...so the 12z ECM was an outlier afterall...

KWT before you get too overly confident on a recurve, you need to read Wx57's post on the discussion thread.

[stormchazer]

Well what a bit surprise, the ECM is back on the recurve boat and we are back to total agreement for a recurve...so the 12z ECM was an outlier afterall...

KWT before you get too overly confident on a recurve, you need to read Wx57's post on the discussion thread.

Got to admit KWT that I am surprised you are being so definitive. Past threads are strewn with blown model forecast, recurves and others. You only have to look at the Frances thread from 2004. Now my opinion, and I am surmising yours, is a recurve looks likely based on the current models, but if we learned anything about TC, they can be very unpredictable, especially 5+ days out.

No disrespect meant as I am usually just a reader and I respect your post. I am just surprised to sometimes see very good posters on S2K making the same pronouncements on 5+ day modeling.

[AtlanticWind]

We need a storm before any of the models should be given any credit. All junk right now in my opinion. Reliable models jumping all over the place usually indicates that there is a question IF this is going to develop at all.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

I think the Sat images this morning indicate this is almost certain to be our next storm.

[rockyman]

Just for reference...Ivan (2004) crossed 31W around 10N....just a few miles south of our current invest's position....and Ivan was a tropical storm at the time.

If the center does form near 10.6/31, the 6z GFDL is already about 3 degrees latitude too far north (by 31W):
0 11.1 27.6 275./ 5.0
6 11.6 27.4 22./ 6.0
12 12.1 28.0 308./ 7.3
18 12.9 29.0 306./12.7
24 13.4 30.7 289./17.3
30 13.7 32.3 280./15.9

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS is taking it wnw pretty quickly, crossing 40W between 14N and 15N ... headed towards the mid-level weakness at 45W.

Ridging is a bit stronger than the corresponding hour in yesterday's 12Z, but it's still weakening the ridge so maybe that's for real despite my doubts.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml


At 6 days the GFS is showing an unusually deep trough across the eastern U.S. that would not allow anything but a very low lattitude, very weak system to escape from. 6 Days is still a ways out there but this is looking like a recurve at the moment.

[ROCK]

that trof is overdone IMO....with half the nation is 90+ degree heat we are going to have a fall like trof dig all the way to mid- FL in August? dont think so.....

[sunnyday]

Rock,
So if the trough doesn't go as far South (into Fl), what could that mean for the not-yet-formed storm?
Thanks for your response.

[ROCK]

Rock,
So if the trough doesn't go as far South (into Fl), what could that mean for the not-yet-formed storm?
Thanks for your response.

it means a quickly strenghtening high after the trof exits...I still think it will flatten out also....there will be a window but how large it is opened remains to be seen, IMO...

[sunnyday]

Thank you for your explanation.

[ROCK]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

12Z CMC is jacked up....next!! competing vortexes which one eats the other one...then you have another storm right behind Dee taken the weakness also? thats one huge weakness...

like I said jacked up.....

[KyleEverett]

Did you see the size of that Extratropical Storm hitting Ireland? No wonder the storms followed it.

[ROCK]

Did you see the size of that Extratropical Storm hitting Ireland? No wonder the storms followed it.

yeah its crap... EURO out in another 40 minutes...should help a little....

[KWT]

Models still in agreement after a brief fling from the 12z ECM...its not going to matter really where it sets-up probably because the system will still head due north once they reach 55W in the current set-up...just means an extra 12-18hrs in warm waters probably!

[ROCK]

Models still in agreement after a brief fling from the 12z ECM...its not going to matter really where it sets-up probably because the system will still head due north once they reach 55W in the current set-up...just means an extra 12-18hrs in warm waters probably!

the ECM will be flinging another run soon. But I like the way you are sticking to your guns......