ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

The radar echoes have started to fill in s l o w l y between Everglade city and the Keys today. By sunrise we might have a TD at this rate. All it needs is a closed circulation and a more predictable track..

overnight will be quite helpful has we will lose the sea-breeze boundaries which are creating some ambiguities in the flow... over night though that will relax and we may get a more easterly flow over florida.

[Aric Dunn]

I wish the SSD would put the floater over it already.. lol

[hurricaneCW]

This one could be one of those rapid developers once the conditions improve. Still, a lot of disturbances thus far have flopped so I'm not expecting anything more than a weak TS at landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

very interesting is the quickly developing circulation.. there is enough convergence now that convection is firing on the very southern edge of the tightening circ.. still pretty broad and the banding is still weak and not too extensive but its changed a lot since this morning.
sorry for the crudeness of the lines..

[KWT]

Interesting little eddy coming off the coast in the Everglades City area.

Yeah thats the area that probably needs to be focused upon right now IMO, quite a established low as its drawing in air/clouds from a fair distance away.

At least thats one bonus for this system, makes an upgrade more likely down the line I suspect.

[floridasun78]

we didnt see rain as expected it more dry in miami fl and forecast

[HURAKAN]

I wish the SSD would put the floater over it already.. lol

you don't need a floater, use the GOM satellite images



Link - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/gmex.html

[HURAKAN]

we didnt see rain as expected it more dry in miami fl and forecast

I got 1.05 inches of rain today. I rained almost unstopped between 11am - 2 pm

[KWT]

The real test is when the frontal boundary dies off and the current decent conditions for convection decrease with it, will the system be able to go it alone...the further it gets down the line now the better for sure.

[Aric Dunn]

very interesting is the quickly developing circulation.. there is enough convergence now that convection is firing on the very southern edge of the tightening circ.. still pretty broad and the banding is still weak and not too extensive but its changed a lot since this morning.
sorry for the crudeness of the lines..
[img][/img]

This image is better.. pretty clear its starting to get going now.. just need the shear decrease and transition to a fully tropical system and then we will have a TD lol

[Aric Dunn]

its also still dropping SW.. fairly slowly

[Hurricane]

its also still dropping SW.. fairly slowly

I thought it was moving WNW?

[xcool22]

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[StormTracker]

we didnt see rain as expected it more dry in miami fl and forecast

I got 1.05 inches of rain today. I rained almost unstopped between 11am - 2 pm

Same deal with me! Out in all that rain during that time because of my job(FedEx)! I was looking at radar between 0400-0800(confused trying to figure out what happened to 94L)thinking it wasn't gonna be so bad because of how far south the system came! But it showed up around 1100! Looks like we like we might get another round later on this evening to tonite from some of the backflow coming around!

[KWT]

I'd personally up the chances to 40% next time round, but I want to see what happens with regards to the old frontal boundary first...

[Hurricane]

It doesn't look like it's moving WNW from the satellite loop. It looks like it's moving south...

[Aric Dunn]

its also still dropping SW.. fairly slowly

I thought it was moving WNW?

well its still attached to the trough which is still sagging South since the trough is still in place its going stay with it till the trough washes out or it breaks off then the general steering is wnw ish ..

[Hurricane]

its also still dropping SW.. fairly slowly

I thought it was moving WNW?

well its still attached to the trough which is still sagging South since the trough is still in place its going stay with it till the trough washes out or it breaks off then the general steering is wnw ish ..

So the longer it's attached the more south the models will go?

[Aric Dunn]

I'd personally up the chances to 40% next time round, but I want to see what happens with regards to the old frontal boundary first...

well 30 to 40 not a big deal.. but I jumping on tonight being very beneficial to it as we will lose the boundary interaction over florida that are somewhat inhibiting the eastern semi circle flow..

[Aric Dunn]

I thought it was moving WNW?

well its still attached to the trough which is still sagging South since the trough is still in place its going stay with it till the trough washes out or it breaks off then the general steering is wnw ish ..

So the longer it's attached the more south the models will go?

well to an extent... the trough will only sag so far south .. the local meso models have it sagging south to about Key West area..