ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[Dean4Storms]

My info on the HWRF was wrong, never mind. Looks like a weak TS into NO area.

[Frank P]

So both the CMC and the GFDL have this thing going towards NOLA.. surprised at the strength with both...

[NWFWatcher]

Does anyone know how strong the models are making this system 94L? And Ivan I read alot of your post I live in Pensacola as well do you think more a Mississippi land fall or Mobile Bay. Thanks for the info.

[ronjon]

Here's why some of the models are making 94L stronger as it approaches the northern gulf coast. Look at the massive anticyclone right over the top of the system that the 18Z NAM forecasts.

[Ivanhater]

Does anyone know how strong the models are making this system 94L? And Ivan I read alot of your post I live in Pensacola as well do you think more a Mississippi land fall or Mobile Bay. Thanks for the info.

To soon to be that specific but the central Gulf coast is a good bet. Remember with tropical storms the worst weather will likely be on the east side (dirty side)

[KWT]

That'd certainly provide for some interesting results Ronjon if that came off, you wouldn't want a strengthening TS in those conditions heading for landfall, I'd imagine if that occured then something like Danny may not be out of the question...

Alas we will have to wait and see as per normal!

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

SHIP is a bit stronger at this run.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 100048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100810 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100810  0000   100810  1200   100811  0000   100811  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.7N  82.7W   25.9N  83.6W   26.4N  84.5W   27.1N  85.6W
BAMD    25.7N  82.7W   25.4N  83.9W   25.7N  85.2W   26.4N  86.7W
BAMM    25.7N  82.7W   25.6N  84.0W   25.7N  85.2W   26.3N  86.5W
LBAR    25.7N  82.7W   25.4N  84.1W   25.7N  85.7W   26.0N  87.5W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100812  0000   100813  0000   100814  0000   100815  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.1N  86.3W   30.2N  86.5W   32.0N  84.7W   33.2N  82.3W
BAMD    27.5N  88.3W   29.9N  90.6W   32.4N  91.1W   35.2N  88.5W
BAMM    27.3N  87.5W   29.7N  88.5W   31.9N  87.6W   33.5N  84.8W
LBAR    26.6N  89.3W   28.0N  92.6W   29.8N  94.6W   31.4N  94.5W
SHIP        45KTS          52KTS          57KTS          58KTS
DSHP        45KTS          52KTS          32KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  25.7N LONCUR =  82.7W DIRCUR = 230DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  26.2N LONM12 =  82.3W DIRM12 = 222DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  27.0N LONM24 =  81.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Ivanhater]

[blazess556]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

Brings it up to 67 mph this run compared to 48 mph last run.

[Dean4Storms]

Think the GFDL is too bullish and HWRF to weak. The GFDL ramps it to TS strength tonight and the HWRF is off with the center initialization, too far north!!!

[lebron23]

anywhere between port o connor tx and destin needs to watch this

[Ivanhater]

Extended 18z Nam

[Dean4Storms]

Extended 18z Nam

Dang, that is Friday, if it isn't ashore until Friday we got problems!

[Stormcenter]

I guess anything (NAM) is possible but I just don't see this
waiting until Friday to come ashore unless it goes a lot further
west. IMO

[lester]

Extended 18z Nam

HOLY CRAP! Well good thing that's the extended nam

[Dean4Storms]

I guess anything (NAM) is possible but I just don't see this
waiting until Friday to come ashore unless it goes a lot further
west. IMO

I would have said the same earlier today, but then 94L has basically meandered just off the SW coast of Florida all day and if anything looks to be organizing further southward in the convection.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian shows a very wet system

[Dean4Storms]

Canadian shows a very wet system

And note the date? SATURDAY????

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks Ivan, thats what i have been searching for. Does it go out another 12-24 hrs? Our mets are currently playing this conservatively giving us only a 30-40% chance of rain through the week.

[Ivanhater]

00z NAM has this moving very slowly approaching the North Central Gulf coast