ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[rockyman]

6z GFDL appears to show a SE Florida landfall...weak..with the system turning NNW and never quite making it into the Gulf.

[gatorcane]

It seems that some of the models have shifted more north last night with the GFS, GFDL, and CMC showing 97L moving WNW into Southern FL/Bahamas region in then more WNW to NW to SE Florida at the end of the run. The HWRF is still showing a track through the straits. The GFS keeps shifting a little more north each run starting with the 18Z GFS yesterday which moved 97L briskly through the Straits of FL.

Needless to say, these models are likely going to be changing alot over the next few days. Also, 97L is not really organized and may just not develop if we are lucky.

Do note that 97L is not moving very fast at 5 to 10 mph, some of those models that shoot it through the straits or into Cuba may be moving it too quickly. Several of the models including the UKMET show a weakness in the 500MB ridge by day 4 or 5, allowing for a turn to the NW.

[ronjon]

6z GFDL appears to show a SE Florida landfall...weak..with the system turning NNW and never quite making it into the Gulf.

Similar to the 06Z GFS operational run.

[ronjon]

It seems that some of the models have shifted more north last night with the GFS, GFDL, and CMC showing 97L moving WNW into Southern FL/Bahamas region in then more WNW to NW to SE Florida at the end of the run. The HWRF is still showing a track through the straits. The GFS keeps shifting a little more north each run starting with the 18Z GFS yesterday which moved 97L briskly through the Straits of FL.

Needless to say, these models are likely going to be changing alot over the next few days. Also, 97L is not really organized and may just not develop if we are lucky.

Do note that 97L is not moving very fast at 5 to 10 mph, some of those models that shoot it through the straits or into Cuba may be moving it too quickly.

Actually GC, the 06Z GFS shifted west from the 00Z run which was off the east coast of FL.

[Blown Away]

I agree Gatorcane, I was commenting on the slowdown last night and the impact on the models longterm. This delay is not good for SFL if 97L develops, because that building high is going to keep 97L WNW for the next few days.

[gatorcane]

Yes, I do see that. That would keep this off the SE Florida coast. Amazing swing from the GFS over the past day with runs showing south of the FL Keys and now East of FL. Generally though GFS keeps showing Southern FL.

[tailgater]

TAFB thoughts at 48 hrs.

Heading towards S Fla, after 72 hrs,

[Blown Away]

First time the TAFB showing a low forming, definitely an area that needs to be watched closely.

A few models moving 97L through SFL into Panhandle as a TS/Cat 1.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

179
WHXX01 KWBC 201256
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC TUE JUL 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100720 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100720  1200   100721  0000   100721  1200   100722  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  65.8W   19.9N  68.7W   20.5N  71.5W   20.6N  73.8W
BAMD    19.0N  65.8W   19.8N  67.8W   20.5N  69.5W   21.3N  71.3W
BAMM    19.0N  65.8W   19.8N  68.0W   20.5N  70.0W   21.1N  71.7W
LBAR    19.0N  65.8W   19.5N  67.7W   20.2N  69.9W   21.1N  72.2W
SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          47KTS          56KTS
DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          47KTS          56KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100722  1200   100723  1200   100724  1200   100725  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.5N  75.9W   21.0N  78.8W   22.5N  81.3W   23.5N  83.7W
BAMD    22.3N  73.1W   24.4N  76.9W   26.2N  81.1W   27.6N  84.4W
BAMM    21.8N  73.3W   23.8N  76.2W   25.7N  79.5W   27.2N  82.6W
LBAR    21.8N  74.6W   23.8N  79.0W   26.0N  82.9W   27.5N  84.7W
SHIP        62KTS          73KTS          77KTS          76KTS
DSHP        62KTS          73KTS          77KTS          51KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.0N LONCUR =  65.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  18.8N LONM12 =  64.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  18.8N LONM24 =  63.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[ROCK]

further and further east...like i said might take the weakness only to get pushed back into FL from the east.....or another scenario is it misses the weakness all together and get shunted west after entering the GOM....or better yet it doesnt develope at all....

[gatorcane]

further and further east...like i said might take the weakness only to get pushed back into FL from the east.....or another scenario is it misses the weakness all together and get shunted west after entering the GOM....or better yet it doesnt develope at all....

I'll take the last option please

[ronjon]

06Z HWRF - 65 mph tropical storm (983 mb) into Miami at 8am Friday.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010072006-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[MiamiHurricanes10]

12z "Official" track takes 97L as a category 1 hurricane through south Florida in 96 hours.

AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 0, 190N, 658W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 12, 194N, 671W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 24, 199N, 687W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 36, 207N, 705W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 48, 216N, 724W, 38, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 28, 28, 37,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 60, 225N, 743W, 46, 0, , 34, NEQ, 39, 29, 29, 39,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 29, 19, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 84, 245N, 782W, 64, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 96, 256N, 801W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 108, 266N, 819W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 120, 277N, 836W, 66, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

[wzrgirl1]

12z "Official" track takes 97L as a category 1 hurricane through south Florida in 96 hours.

AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 0, 190N, 658W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 12, 194N, 671W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 24, 199N, 687W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 36, 207N, 705W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 48, 216N, 724W, 38, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 28, 28, 37,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 60, 225N, 743W, 46, 0, , 34, NEQ, 39, 29, 29, 39,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 29, 19, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 84, 245N, 782W, 64, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 96, 256N, 801W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 108, 266N, 819W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 120, 277N, 836W, 66, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

Is that Knots or Mphs?

[ronjon]

12z "Official" track takes 97L as a category 1 hurricane through south Florida in 96 hours.

AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 0, 190N, 658W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 12, 194N, 671W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 24, 199N, 687W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 36, 207N, 705W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 48, 216N, 724W, 38, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 28, 28, 37,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 60, 225N, 743W, 46, 0, , 34, NEQ, 39, 29, 29, 39,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 29, 19, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 84, 245N, 782W, 64, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 96, 256N, 801W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 108, 266N, 819W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 120, 277N, 836W, 66, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

Is that Knots or Mphs?

Knots

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Yes the wind speed is in knots.

12z SHIPS as well taking 97L through south Florida, however the SHIPS takes it very close to a category 2 hurricane.

AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 0, 190N, 658W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 12, 192N, 670W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 24, 198N, 686W, 47, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 36, 206N, 705W, 56, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 48, 214N, 722W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 60, 224N, 742W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 72, 235N, 763W, 73, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 84, 246N, 783W, 76, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 96, 254N, 800W, 77, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 108, 265N, 818W, 78, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, SHIP, 120, 277N, 836W, 76, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Blown Away]

77kt * 1.151 = 88 mph Cane In Miami!

[Bocadude85]

77kt * 1.151 = 88 mph Cane In Miami!

I would be very surprised if this was a cane while nearing Florida.... I doubt it will be anymore then a tropical depression.

[x-y-no]

Yeah, well, I'm not rushing to put up shutters ...

SHIPs is ramping up way too fast. I can believe we get TS Bonnie here (maybe a 50% chance) but odds of Hurricane Bonnie in SFL are very low.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z NAM is running. It seems to move 97L too quickly in this run. It thinks it will be approaching SE FL on a NW to WNW heading at 60 hours. It does turn it more NW at the end of the run as compared to shooting it through the FL straits as it had been in previous runs. But then again NAM is pretty bad when it comes to tropical systems.