EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[clfenwi]

Pretty big relocation of the center by SSD; 82 nautical miles away from their previous fix.

Placing the center where they did puts it at the fringe of convection.

Clearly,TPC did not concur with the relocation as best track is well to the southeast.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Hurricane Andrew]

Latest GFDL

Can someone post a new one of these?

Thanks in advance.

[clfenwi]

Here you go, Hurricane Andrew:

[Hurricane Andrew]

Scary man! Thanks. Do you know were i could get a link to those.

[Evil Jeremy]

Scary man! Thanks. Do you know were i could get a link to those.

Those graphs exist for many global models, as well as the GFDL and HWRF. You can access them from this link:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

The different models are on the left side of the screen. It then takes you to a new screen with a map with various numbered circles. Just find whatever particular system is of interest at the time (the maps are always updating), and scroll down on the pages that pop up!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Thanks EJ! I am surprised there isn't more peeps on!

[clfenwi]

If this low were 300 miles to the north, the boards would be bustling. Being that it's in the Pacific,however, the boards, as you can see, are fairly quiet. Commentary on the Pacific storms is usually left to the dedicated hard-core types.

[Hurricane Andrew]

When will the next update come out?

[ROCK]

looks impressive to me but doubt it would survive if it crossed over. The shear is screaming all through out the GOM and Carib...still to soon IMO....


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[HURAKAN]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITH A BROAD 1005 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 13N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND OVER S MEXICO
AND GUATEMALA. A 28/1616 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS WENT OVER THE LOW
CENTER DEPICTING 20-25 KT WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS SE OF THE
CENTER. THE CONSENSUS OF NUMEROUS TROPICAL TRACK MODELS HAS THIS LOW
MOVING NE TOWARDS THE COAST OF GUATEMALA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

[HURAKAN]

0z

EP, 90, 2010052900, , BEST, 0, 130N, 942W, 30, 1005, DB

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Evil Jeremy]

CDO becoming more apparent. Either that or I am dead tired (which I am lol) and seeing things:

[Brent]

RECENT MICROWAVE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO DE SAN JOSE GUATEMALA IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[brunota2003]

DB instead of Low? Depressing blob?

On the opposite side, it does look good over all, and I think it'll become the first TD of the 2010 season today around either 11 am, or 5 pm (most likely 5 pm), provided nothing happens.

As far as the cross over, I think some of the left overs could cross and try to start something, but do not believe it will become anything other than maybe a weak low at best.

[I-wall]

Looks like a depression to me!

[KWT]

Well 90% is just about as high as you can go when it comes to warning of tropical systems developing. Good convective burst with any LLC seemingly on the SW side of the convective burst.

I think we will see an upgrade very soon but whether it has the time to become a TS before it reaches land which is quite close now, is uncertain.

[cwachal]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291124
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

LATEST MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO DE SAN JOSE
GUATEMALA IS ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR
100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND
FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.
HEAVY SQUALLS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND MUCH OF GUATEMALA...AND THE AREA OF HEAVY
RAINS EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS EL SALVADOR. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN THESE AREAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

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