ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[lebron23]

so i take it there is not a chance at invest 91 or whatever it becomes at going to houston?

[jinftl]

not seen any model runs or pro met discussions that make mention of anything suggesting such a path....for whatever this system is/isnt

so i take it there is not a chance at invest 91 or whatever it becomes at going to houston?

[Aric Dunn]

The NWS-wrf model closes of a surface low around 10UTC today.... which is roughly 5 to 6 hours and its still off shore at 00UTC tomorrow..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/wrf/cz.html

[Aric Dunn]

yeah it does seem to have slowed down..

[lebron23]

yeah it does seem to have slowed down..

what does slowing down mean for it?

[jinftl]

other than not moving, it won't mean much unless it develops a surface circulation that is closed. if it sat for days...which i doubt it will....if there is a trough moving east that will help turn bill out to sea, it would effect this sysem even sooner, turning it north or ne.

yeah it does seem to have slowed down..

what does slowing down mean for it?

[Aric Dunn]

yeah it does seem to have slowed down..

what does slowing down mean for it?

more time over water.. to potentially strengthen ..

[Brent]

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TAMPA...IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
SOMETIME TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH TODAY. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

[Cainer]

Code Red, and time for bed! I'm interested to see what the morning will bring for this little gal. Hopefully nothing major, for all you people in the Gulf.

[Ivanhater]

[Aric Dunn]

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TAMPA...IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
SOMETIME TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH TODAY. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

that was completely expected as my surface plots showed and radar.. it is pretty clear..

[jinftl]

From 2am NHC Tropical Outlook

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH TODAY. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

Anything that does get going would more than likely be a florida panhandle event....based on direction of movement and wording from NHC (they did not say 'residents along the northern gulf coast')

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow, code red already! That was fast!

[The Eye Wall]

If you stir a cup of coffee long enough, eventually the circulation will reach the bottom of the cup. The same applies here. I'm not surprised.

[Aric Dunn]

From 2am NHC Tropical Outlook

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH TODAY. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

Anything that does get going would more than likely be a florida panhandle event....based on direction of movement and wording from NHC (they did not say 'residents along the northern gulf coast')

right.. but its not moving very fast at the moment,.. so will see what happens... but im glad they upped it to red...

[Aric Dunn]

If you stir a cup of coffee long enough, eventually the circulation will reach the bottom of the cup. The same applies here. I'm not surprised.

haha
you know i like that so much im going to use it.. lol
Thanks...

[The Eye Wall]

If you stir a cup of coffee long enough, eventually the circulation will reach the bottom of the cup. The same applies here. I'm not surprised.

haha
you know i like that so much im going to use it.. lol
Thanks...

I'm glad I've made a friend on my 3rd post in. LOL

[Aric Dunn]

If you stir a cup of coffee long enough, eventually the circulation will reach the bottom of the cup. The same applies here. I'm not surprised.

haha
you know i like that so much im going to use it.. lol
Thanks...

I'm glad I've made a friend on my 3rd post in. LOL

seriously its a great analogy... and correct

[Evil Jeremy]

A lot of people are going to wake up tomorrow in the Panhandle confused and wondering how this little ditty just popped up out of nowhere.

[Aric Dunn]

A lot of people are going to wake up tomorrow in the Panhandle confused and wondering how this little ditty just popped up out of nowhere.

yes they are....