ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[supercane]

[WeatherGuesser]

Intensity up slightly to 105 MPH.

Track has shifted a bit to the west as expected.

Yeah, the Five Day cone is picking up part of the US East Coast now.

[Brent]

Snippets from the discussion, re long term track:

AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS EARL TURNS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE LARGE
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
THE LEFT...OR WEST...BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT...IF ANY...PARTS OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS
WEEK.

[Gustywind]

[supercane]

Latest image from St Maarten radar:

Note that the web page apparently only updates the image loop once an hour sometime after the hour.

[ravyrn]

If this storm's projected path continues to trend west and ended up being forecast to hug the coast from North Carolina on up to Newfoundland, I wonder what the government's plan would be as far as evacuations go. That's A LOT of people!

[ColinDelia]

Nantucket has a 28% probability of TS winds and a 6% probability of Hurricane force winds in 120 hours (during a 12 hour period)

Cape Hatteras has a 30% probability of TS winds and a 7% probability of Hurricane force winds in 96 hours (during a 12 hour period)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0833.shtml?

[kungfut]

hey everyone. hope ur safe. I hope it turns north. Other thing is, I was talking to a friend who was on st. john for hurricane marilyn in 95... They mentioned a drought being in effect before it hit.
Well, right now the usvi and bvi has a lot of moisture from the rain in july. hopefully this moisture wont attract the storm to stall over the region.
prayers and best luck to all in the caribbean... The states is one thing, but when these things hit those tiny little islands, it causes major problems.
bless

[Gustywind]

[abajan]

Question for ProMets:
Judging by the series of Radar images posted by supercane above (and any other data you may have), did my assertion that the eyewall would not touch Barbuda turn out to be correct?
(Just wondering how good my forecasting skills are as an amateur.)

EDIT: The microwave image below (also posted by supercane) seems to have proven me wrong but I still await your responses.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Time_Zone]

Wow...Very large storm...hasn't changed much in the past few hours in terms of organization though.

[BatzVI]

Power still on but cable out....just had a pretty good rainband....

[HURAKAN]

Puerto Rico's Long Range Radar - eye coming into view

[cyclonic chronic]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

wow! convection takes up the entire lon. lat. box. and the whole thing is centered. just thought it looked kinda different. i cant remember if it was dean or felix, but one of them intensified as it went over the islands, kinda reminds me of that a little bit.

[cyclonic chronic]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

first vis. of the day is up. looks like a cat 2.

[msbee]

not sure what to expect on st maarten
so far so good
will it get worse?

[Nimbus]

As long as Earl keeps moving the damage too Barbuda and St Maarten should be fairly light. Even though they will be on the weak side of the storm they are probably experiencing sustained tropical storm strength winds with hurricane force gusts. The worst damage usually occurs when a storm stalls over a single area dumping 10's of inches of rain and pounds them with many hours of high winds. Even a tropical storm can cause a lot of damage if it stalls over an area.

[jlauderdal]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

first vis. of the day is up. looks like a cat 2.

that would be cool if we could base intensity on satellite shots, but we cant

[msbee]

As long as Earl keeps moving the damage too Barbuda and St Maarten should be fairly light. Even though they will be on the weak side of the storm they are probably experiencing sustained tropical storm strength winds with hurricane force gusts. The worst damage usually occurs when a storm stalls over a single area dumping 10's of inches of rain and pounds them with many hours of high winds. Even a tropical storm can cause a lot of damage if it stalls over an area.

yes, I know when it stalls, it is much worse.
keep on truckin', Earl!