ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1721 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:02 pm

very intense eyewall.. next pass of recon should be interesting...

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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1722 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:02 pm

ROCK wrote:at 970MB which it probably a little lower than that....current steering...not much of a window to squeeze through IMO....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html


And its a closing window.
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#1723 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:04 pm

PURPLE CODE :eek: is in effect for the Northern Leewards that means TS or H winds are expected in less than 3 hours! Oh boy STAY SAFE AND DRY MY FRIENDS MSBEE PATTI... :(
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#1724 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:07 pm

Radar does seem to show the eye finally making the turn to the northwest though, which I'm sure is good news to Puerto Rico, St. Barths, and other islands there. We'll see if it wobbles back or continues soon.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1725 Postby boca » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:08 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
ROCK wrote:at 970MB which it probably a little lower than that....current steering...not much of a window to squeeze through IMO....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html


And its a closing window.


Looking at the map that Rock posted it seems like the gap to turn NW is very small. Could this continue WNW and miss that little gap.
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#1726 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:13 pm

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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1727 Postby EyELeSs1 » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:16 pm

wow looks like eye is closing off with solid ring of deep convection

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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1728 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:20 pm

Uninhabited Sombrero Island 35 miles NW of Anguilla should get the brunt:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sombrero,_Anguilla


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#1729 Postby ozonepete » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The eye is quite apparent on IR now..

Image


Yeah. That's what I posted before about the dry pocket of air. I will put together a sequence of images to make the point tomorrow. Can't do it now because I'm up way too late. Good luck to all you guys down there. Stay safe!
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#1730 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:25 pm

Earl surface wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division of AOML
and the H*Wind project:
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#1731 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:26 pm

radar...
http://www.weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html
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#1732 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:27 pm

00z GFS shifted west.. nearly makes landafall in NC then new england.. less than 100 miles of shore hateras
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#1733 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:31 pm

Latest St. Maarten radar image:
Image
Last edited by supercane on Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1734 Postby ozonepete » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:00z GFS shifted west.. nearly makes landafall in NC then new england.. less than 100 miles of shore hateras


Wow. We all know that the cone will keep shifting. Tomorrow morning's 12Z runs will be very interesting...
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Re:

#1735 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:33 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:00z GFS shifted west.. nearly makes landafall in NC then new england.. less than 100 miles of shore hateras


any extended wobbles westward from here on out would have serious implications down the road....you EC folks need to get prepared if you havent already.....
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1736 Postby BrianD » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:39 pm

As I said before I do believe earl wants to visit OBX..... just my opinion but I have a feeling he's a beach dweller and likes hampton roads, obx area
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#1737 Postby BrianD » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:39 pm

Va Beach here Ready and waiting....
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#1738 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:45 pm

Looks to be gaining latitude now.
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#1739 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:45 pm

Earl, welcome to the group of storms that have entered the Hebert Box and failed to reach Florida.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1740 Postby Riptide » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:47 pm

Damn, Earl is really wrapping up on the IR. Perhaps a period of RI is coming.
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