ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Sanibel]

A certain sign of an intensifying storm are those 'curls' of convection shooting into the eye. What is happening is the storm is quickly intensifying and the structure hasn't caught up yet so the violent surges of convection in the eyewall overshoot it and curl into the open eye. I call them "rip curls". You can see it plainly on Aric's radar loop.

[supercane]

Latest from St Maarten radar:

Latest microwave:

[fd122]

Heavy rain but not much wind here.

[Normandy]

They core seems quite large as well, which means that it would have to move even further north for St. Maarten and Antigua to be spared the eyewall. Hopefully they are prepared down there for a major.

[artist]

Heavy rain but not much wind here.

thanks for keeping us updated. Glad there at least is not much wind like earlier for you.

[SFLcane]

very much in the deepening phase ... and will likely pass over the radar site..

http://www.weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

Aric can you make an animated radar loop useing those images? Cappi

[Gustywind]

[Aric Dunn]

very much in the deepening phase ... and will likely pass over the radar site..

http://www.weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

Aric can you make an animated radar loop useing those images? Cappi

I cant no.. someone probably could try if they know java well enough..

[Gustywind]

Rain is back with isolated lightnings with light winds.

['CaneFreak]

You are seeing LIGHTNING?

[Normandy]

Even at this eleventh hour, I don't believe Barbuda will get hit by the eyewall. But as I stated earlier, they will certainly get nasty weather.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

They certainly will get hit by the eyewall unless a drastic change in motion occurs over the next hour. The good news for right now is that winds in the SW quadrant aren't all that impressive, only strong TS force for the most part.

[vbhoutex]

I'm sorry to be an idiot (usually a committed lurker here), but what does RI stand for? I suspect you have had that question in the past many times, but bear with me.

Also, how concerned I should be living here in Chesapeake VA?

It would maybe help if there was a glossary somewhere so the lay folks could decode the acronyms or may I suggest that folks just spell it out. Otherwise this forum becomes more of a "club" of a few hard core cane trackers than a forum for the masses.

A glossary is a good idea. However, there are plenty of people here that are more than willing to help, as Evenstar found out. There are no dumb questions.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=61

[Aric Dunn]

The eye is quite apparent on IR now..

[MGC]

Barbuda should get into the southern eyewall in the next couple of hours. Might even get into the extreme south part of the eye. Earl's eye looks to be closed based on radar observation....MGC

[Gustywind]

LEEWARDS ISLANDS...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Normandy]

I think Barbuda will come out of this ok as it will take time for the winds to ramp up on the southern side of the circulation. It still has some time before it gets to St. Maarten though, so they could take a big blow from Earl if he undergoes RI tonight.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300255 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1055 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

.UPDATE...HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. EARL IS STILL MOVING ON A JUST NORTH OF DUE
WEST TRACK. LATEST TPC/NHC ADVISORY REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONE...JUST A TAD SOUTH AND WEST...AND CONTINUES TO BRING
THE CENTER OF EARL JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

OUTER BANDS FROM EARL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT. ALL
LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM EARL WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...THE WSR-88D DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR WAS RETURNED TO
SERVICE AT 2228Z.

&&

[ROCK]

at 970MB which it probably a little lower than that....current steering...not much of a window to squeeze through IMO....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html