ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[jinftl]

Looks like Barbuda is going to possibly get a direct hit...eye is moving right towards it per the radar link below (radar from St. Maarten):

http://www.weather.an/radar/ppisxm.html

[TexasF6]

Big ol WeebleWooble WSW wow...........very interesting....

[ozonepete]

Have to agree the motion looks pretty much westward in the last few hours - getting close to more than a wobble, but still too early too call it a change. Also, it appears the real cloud-free eye we're used to seeing on satellite may be kicking in...

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 15anno.jpg

That's north of where recon is fixing the center. There's also a couple blue pockets in the SW quad of that picture.

The parcel of dry air that becomes the eye often swirls around the center of the RMW and then consolidates within it.

[terrapintransit]

Big ol WeebleWooble WSW wow...........very interesting....

You can really see it here..

http://www.weather.an/radar/ppisxm.html

[AdamFirst]

http://www.weather.an/radar/ppisxm.html

A slight jog to the west-southwest. I see generally west however. Looks to be heading right at Barbuda.

EDIT: guy above beat me to it

[cpdaman]

Have to agree the motion looks pretty much westward in the last few hours - getting close to more than a wobble, but still too early too call it a change. Also, it appears the real cloud-free eye we're used to seeing on satellite may be kicking in...

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 15anno.jpg

That's north of where recon is fixing the center. There's also a couple blue pockets in the SW quad of that picture.

Yes,that is north of the recon fixes.

that is not an eye..or a future eye ...it is an area devoid of convection which rotated around..(in the linked image was at 0115z...which is made clear here...with a loop that runs thru another hour after.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=600

however you CAN see where an eye maybe taking shape

[dexterlabio]

A wobble here and there could mean a lot at this point, it has been pretty close to the islands. This is what I've learned from a pro-met in the WPAC threads, the movement whether a wobble or not could be critical for those areas that can be hit by the storm.

[Gustywind]

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/op ... loope.html

[Buck]

The heaviest convection is to the east and south of the center... which is bad news for our island friends.

[TCmet]

This feature appearing now in Hurr Earl is what I like to (unofficially, of course) call the "fist of death". Very reliable sign of RI starting soon.

The convection in the "fist" will quickly wrap around the center, and usually cause an eye to emerge. Could quickly go to Cat 3 from here in the next 12 hours.

[cpdaman]

The heaviest convection is to the west and south of the center... which is bad news for our island friends.

...what are you looking at to come to that conclusion?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=600

looks clearly east of center where heaviest convection is

[Buck]

The heaviest convection is to the west and south of the center... which is bad news for our island friends.

what are you looking at to come to that conclusion?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=600

looks clearly east of center where heaviest convection is

Yes, of course. Typo.

[ozonepete]

"that is not an eye..or a future eye ...it is an area devoid of convection which rotated around..(in the linked image was at 0115z...which is made clear here...with a loop that runs thru another hour after.


however you CAN see where an eye maybe taking shape"

Keep an "eye" on it. I've seen this happen many times before. We will see...

[artist]

http://i34.tinypic.com/zso7wl.jpg

This feature appearing now in Hurr Earl is what I like to (unofficially, of course) call the "fist of death". Very reliable sign of RI starting soon.

The convection in the "fist" will quickly wrap around the center, and usually cause an eye to emerge. Could quickly go to Cat 3 from here in the next 12 hours.

thanks for the graphic. Not good news though.


Edited by CM to take out [img] tags.

[vacanechaser]

starting to really ramp up tonight... things looking bad for the islands...

starting to think it will be closer to the obx as it seems to be pushing west of the next position point... if i lived along the obx, i would possibly start thinking about your plans... of course, this is nothing more than a guess at this point, but it is starting to look like i might have been on the right path the other night... will be interesting the next day or so..

[cpdaman]

wow i remember the fist calls....everytime i remember seeing it RI was imminent.....earl's gonna bomb out

[Gustywind]

CAT 2 CANE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 300233
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY.

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[Buck]

Praying for y'all in the islands!

[Brent]

[vacanechaser]

wow... 100mph looks to be just the start... strap in down there in the islands...