ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Stephanie]

There's an island directly to the SW of the eyewall per the animation above. What island is that? Is it Barbuda?

Best wishes to all in the islands that seem to be on their way of getting something out of Earl. Hopefully, it's just a lot of rain!

Yes, Barbuda. Thanks, Stephanie!

Unfortunately, if Earl doesn't start to turn soon, St. Maarten is in it's direct path.

[Sanibel]

Antigua should get a good shot from the southern core as it passes.

[gatorcane]

Big wobble wsw...........

[Stephanie]

Looks like some nasty weather is heading our way pretty soon.

Take care and keep us posted!

[cpdaman]

one small positive (at least) for the island barduda is that the intense duration of the squalls will be somewhat lessened since right now the NW quad is pretty devoid of heavy squalls.....which otherwise would be impacting them now...since the worst right now seems on the southeast eastern and NE side with that convection thru 0139z

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=600

[cycloneye]

Big wobble wsw...........

Where did you see that movement?

[Stephanie]

Big wobble wsw...........

Where did you see that movement?

Look at the loop Aric Dunn posted above.

[bvigal]

Does anyone else find the "Trop Pts" feature on the SSD floaters extremely useful? By turning that on and zooming the loop, it's easy to see if the center is still on the forecast track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[gatorcane]

Big wobble wsw...........

Where did you see that movement?

Look at the loop Aric Dunn posted above.

Exactly that is what I was looking at

[Gustywind]

Looks like some nasty weather is heading our way pretty soon.

Be vigilant my friend stay safe and dry! Continue to keep us informed too as possible.

[HurrMark]

Looks straight west to me. Probably an illusion with the eye contracting a tad.

[terrapintransit]

Exactly that is what I was looking at[/quote][/quote]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

This loop shows it a little better...may be an illusion though.

[Stephanie]

Looks straight west to me. Probably an illusion with the eye contracting a tad.

Could be. If you look at the floater link provided by bvigal above, there's more convection flaring up on the southwest side of the eye in the last frames that maybe causing the optical illusion.

[amawea]

Well, I can tell you one thing. I do not see any northerly component to this storm on the latest satellite loops. I think the east coast needs to get a bear watch. JMHO.

[CrazyC83]

I would put the intensity at 80 kt given the Recon data.

[Nimbus]

This is the third time they have changed this link for Barbuda.

At 5pm they estimated winds of 40 to 60 MPH
at 8PM they upped that estimate to 60 to 80 MPH
and now it is back to 50 to 70 MPH?

The Met in charge is really staying on top of it.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weathe ... n=ACXX0001

[Sanibel]

Could be. If you look at the floater link provided by bvigal above, there's more convection flaring up on the southwest side of the eye in the last frames that maybe causing the optical illusion.

An intensifying storm will have eye wobbles like that. (And so will a left erring storm) Probably a wobble.

[ozonepete]

Have to agree the motion looks pretty much westward in the last few hours - getting close to more than a wobble, but still too early too call it a change. Also, it appears the real cloud-free eye we're used to seeing on satellite may be kicking in... This is how they usually start up - as a small portion of dry air that gets pinched off and swirls into the center.

[Evil Jeremy]

Have to agree the motion looks pretty much westward in the last few hours - getting close to more than a wobble, but still too early too call it a change. Also, it appears the real cloud-free eye we're used to seeing on satellite may be kicking in...

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 15anno.jpg

That's north of where recon is fixing the center. There's also a couple blue pockets in the SW quad of that picture.

[cycloneye]

Have to agree the motion looks pretty much westward in the last few hours - getting close to more than a wobble, but still too early too call it a change. Also, it appears the real cloud-free eye we're used to seeing on satellite may be kicking in...

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 15anno.jpg

That's north of where recon is fixing the center. There's also a couple blue pockets in the SW quad of that picture.

Yes,that is north of the recon fixes.