ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Vortex]

GFDL 18Z brings a minimal hurricane to se fl...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Aric, what do you think of this position?

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, AL, 96, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, 186N, 867W, 25, 1003, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[gatorcane]

Convection is on the increase and it appears it is gradually getting it's act together with the low just off the coast of belize

[Lifesgud2]

Convection is on the increase and it appears it is gradually getting it's act together with the low just off the coast of belize

I concur..Should be up to 60% in the AM..What do you think Gator?

[Vortex]

Convection is on the increase and it appears it is gradually getting it's act together with the low just off the coast of belize

agree gator...the best models all bring it right over SFL wednesday evening...

[ConvergenceZone]

Convection is on the increase and it appears it is gradually getting it's act together with the low just off the coast of belize

agree gator...the best models all bring it right over SFL wednesday evening...

Wow, from Belize to south Florida in less than 48 hours? This system must be flying!!..I guess it's good for cutting down on the rainfall amounts anyway...

[sunnyday]

76 kts equals how many mph? Also, since S Fl is targeted now this far out, isn't the forecast likely to move somewhere else later?

[wzrgirl1]

I feel for the NHC because you can't warn people with no storm but at the same time, it could ramp up quickly leaving residents with no time to prepare. This one is tough. I guess that is why they get paid the big bucks.

[mf_dolphin]

76 kts equals how many mph? Also, since S Fl is targeted now this far out, isn't the forecast likely to move somewhere else later?

87.4 MPH

[ObsessedMiami]

If it follows the models, will they bother with TS Warnings/Hurricane Warnings for SFL? I mean I know they will if it warrants it but you won't see EOC activation/closures, will you? Seems like it is happening in a quick timeframe.

EDIT: Sorry wzrgirl1, I didn't see your very similar post above.

[Evil Jeremy]

If it follows the models, will they bother with TS Warnings/Hurricane Warnings for SFL?

Oh defiantly. TS watches/warnings would likely come with the first advisory.

[Florida1118]

You have to note how they say:
"OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS."
Is there anyway to tell on the models if a system is sub. or not?

[SunnyThoughts]

[Vortex]

If it follows the models, will they bother with TS Warnings/Hurricane Warnings for SFL? I mean I know they will if it warrants it but you won't see EOC activation/closures, will you? Seems like it is happening in a quick timeframe.

My guess tropical storm warnings at 11am tomorrow...from the keys North to Jupiter...If the models continue to indicate a potential hurricane and the storm is on a steady strengthening trend tomorrow then we might see hurricane warnings for the se coast and keys...Tropical storm warnings look a good bet...hurricane warnings not likely but possible...

[Vortex]

You have to note how they say:
"OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS."
Is there anyway to tell on the models if a system is sub. or not?

no doubt tropical to start...

[artist]

great place for alot of info-

http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/predict/ops/index

[Florida1118]

I feel for the NHC because you can't warn people with no storm but at the same time, it could ramp up quickly leaving residents with no time to prepare. This one is tough. I guess that is why they get paid the big bucks.

Well its not like it can ramp up to a major like Karl W/ the conditions N of Cuba. But they can Issue Flood Watches a day or so early, as well as HWO...So as long as they have SOMETHING mentioning "Hey, be aware a TC might form W/ flooding rain" or "Monitor the NHC for..." thats pretty good info to look out.

[hurricaneCW]

Where's the floater for this invest?

[captain east]

If this does cross over SE Florida it's not suppose to be there very long since its getting sucked NE so fast right?

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES001520102717VJqex.jpg

Structure still improving. Looking very circular with some banding. All this needs is a spark near the LLC, or whatever circulation there is near Belize.