ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[Migle]

I am really surprsied that we have Igor. Went to sleep with him having a 20% chance and then in morning we already had Tropical Storm Igor. He doesn't look bad at all and does have a chance of affecting the islands once again it looks like. They really need a break right now though.

[TheBurn]

[Florida1118]

Well not that my gut is at all accurate but heres my best guess: Igor will steadily increase in Intensity, continuing on a W-WNW path for 5-6 days. then, taking a track either similar to earl, or a S FL track into the gulf.
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[Macrocane]

Officially yes, but bonnie, colin and gaston were quite lame and probably wouldnt of been counted or even hardly noticed 40 years ago. Maybe just me but it seems like an average to slow year (so far) Hope it stays this way.

Yeah but the comparison was with 2009 (1 year ago) and in 2009 systems like Bonnie and Colin were counted (Erika, Henry, DANNY!!) so we are already at the levels of 2009.

[cycloneye]

[Florida1118]

Even with a slight N shift of the track still at the end of the track towards day 4-5, looks like a W path not a WNW path...

[Migle]

After reading the discussion, the NHC seems like they uncertain about a lot thing such as strength and track:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM...SEEMS TRICKY WITH IGOR ONLY ABOUT 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

THE NHC FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND STILL MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE AT THE END

Going to be interesting to watch this one.

[cycloneye]

And also this interesting part of discussion.

WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SHIFTING NORTHWARD... I
AM HESITANT TO FORECAST A MUCH STRONGER HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.

[ColinDelia]

Officially yes, but bonnie, colin and gaston were quite lame and probably wouldnt of been counted or even hardly noticed 40 years ago. Maybe just me but it seems like an average to slow year (so far) Hope it stays this way.

We need 6 more named storms this year to crack the top 10 all time seasons for number of names storms. 7 more would tie for 6th all time. That is quite a few but there is a lot of season left. Maybe we don't do it. But it does seem like we have a good chance for a top 10 season as far as number of named storms to me. I remember a lot of real yawners for seasons. Like, in 1983 we only got to "D". Not meaning to criticize at all. It just feels like a pretty busy season to me and it is interesting how/why we all have different perceptions.

[CrazyC83]

Officially yes, but bonnie, colin and gaston were quite lame and probably wouldnt of been counted or even hardly noticed 40 years ago. Maybe just me but it seems like an average to slow year (so far) Hope it stays this way.

We need 6 more named storms this year to crack the top 10 all time seasons for number of names storms. 7 more would tie for 6th all time. That is quite a few but there is a lot of season left. Maybe we don't do it. But it does seem like we have a good chance for a top 10 season as far as number of named storms to me. I remember a lot of real yawners for seasons. Like, in 1983 we only got to "D". Not meaning to criticize at all. It just feels like a pretty busy season to me and it is interesting how/why we all have different perceptions.

We've now matched the entire total for 2009 as well...Also Ana, Claudette (maybe?), Danny, Erika and Henri could fit that definition of lame storms last year as well...

[KWT]

Hmmmm thats a very tricky call to make, there sure does look like being a low to its NE and obviously that may impinge on strength and who knows may even keep the system on a more westward track, who knows?

A bit messy at the moment and the low to the north is probably help keep the lop-sided look but still no doubts about it being a TS at the moment...

Could be a big ACE raker!

[Steve]

>>Could be a big ACE raker!

Regardless of what ends up happening, it looks like a lot of potential ACE is still crossing Africa. There appears to be at least 4 potential invests still on the continent at the moment. Hey, if the Tropical Atlantic is the place where everything erupts this year, then so be it. Worst case there is that maybe Bermuda, eastern Canada or the coastal Carolinas get raked or brushed but more likely, we see strong fish storms. We've already seen what can happen in the SW Atlantic (relative to the Northern Hemisphere), so I wouldn't look for that to completely change regardless if anything sneaks underneath or forms in the Caribbean or Gulf. We've been going back and forth on the potential for a hyper season for a while now, and you've been (rightfully I might add) particularly honing in on hyperactivity as defined by ACE - possibly, though not necessarily apart from number of named storms. It's been very interesting to see things unfold with mostly weak (wind wise, anyway) systems affecting the US. Not meaning to discount someone's flooded house or any lives that have been lost thus far in the season, but considering the alternative of a couple of big, killer storms that wipe out towns or communities, I think we'll take the weaker systems, classified or not, affecting the United States. Looking forward to the next few weeks KWT. The seasons since 1950 (as per Wiki) that have been classified as "Hyperactive" (by ACE) were:

2005, ACE = 248, NS = 28
1950, ACE = 243, NS = 13
1995, ACE = 228, NS = 19
2004, ACE = 225, NS = 14
1961, ACE = 205, NS = 11
1955, ACE = 199, NS = 12
1998, ACE = 182, NS = 14
1999, ACE = 177, NS = 12
2003, ACE = 175, NS = 16
1964, ACE = 170, NS = 12
1996, ACE = 166, NS = 13
1969, ACE = 158, NS = 17

As of today (or the last time the header for the thread was updated)

2010, ACE = 63.5275, NS = 9

Many of the years noted above were in various seasonal prediction analog (or quasi-analog) lists. 2 or 3 more majors (would put us, I believe, at 4 or 5) would ramp that up quickly. And anything else would be lagniappe. Igor should be contributing more ACE to the total before he's done. Btw, as for NS, are you still thinking 14-16?

[KWT]

Yep Steve, though this is the wrong topic probably for this...its starting to look like we may well get close to hyperactive even with regards to NS as well...we are now decently ahead of 1969 again and not really all that far behind 1995 considering it didn't get Noel till the back end of September...and another big burst like in late August would nearly catch us up!

Anyway regardless of actual track this one is going to be with us for the next 10-12 days at least...

[Steve]

Gotcha. I edited in the question about # of named storms while you were typing which I'm glad you answered. I wasn't meaning to drift off topic, but certainly in regards to Igor's potential contribution to 2010 ACE, and it being the 9th storm but it's not even September 10th yet, I think it's a relevant contribution to the thread and the larger topic. Igor's potential got me thinking of some of the points you have been making applied to where we are in the season. I always appreciate the good posts, man.

[AJC3]

Just noticed that Sal in the CVI reported sustained TS force winds last hour...

GVAC 082300Z 11035G45KT 9999 -RA OVC018 23/23 Q1009 NOSIG

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GVAC.html

[KWT]

Very interesting to see reports of TS winds there!

I do wonder how this set-up with the low to the NE and Igor is going to evolve...wonder if we are going to have a far more uncertain storm then normal because of that?

[CrazyC83]

With those reports assuming they are not the strongest winds, I would bump Igor up to 45 kt.

[cycloneye]

Crazy,00z Best Track remains at 40kts.

AL, 11, 2010090900, , BEST, 0, 138N, 243W, 40, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[CrazyC83]

08/2345 UTC 13.7N 24.7W T1.5/1.5 11L

It has never been higher than that, so Igor is an over-producer. It was T1.0 at the time that it was declared a TS.

[gatorcane]

I could easily see this becoming a cat 3 or 4. Thankfully models are sniffing out a large and deep trough that digs into the western Atlantic which creates a large weakness by the time igor gets into the central Atlantic.