ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[Ivanhater]

There is the split in the ridge

[HouTXmetro]

Maybe west from the last run but compared to yesterday i would say an eastward shift.

[BigA]

18z NAM also has a healthy anticyclone develop over 94L as it moves toward the Gulf coast. I remember that in June, the NAM correctly predicted the anticyclone that formed over Alex, so it may be of some relevance.

[Wx_Warrior]

Iv....knee deep in HS football stuff here...Did the 500 EURO show that L move west into SoTex? Or wasn't that something else I saw?

[Ivanhater]

wxwarrior ..it looked like the euro moved it into Nola/Mississippi area then got strung out with the front. The euro also showed a trough split off the east coast with a low developing and sitting for a few days.

Stay cool out there warrior!

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS

[Ivanhater]

Vorticity strong on this run into Mississippi

[TwisterFanatic]

What was the lowest pressure on the 18z NAM?

[Wx_Warrior]

Thanks Iv!!!!

I couldn't tell if that L went into STX or if it sniffed the weakness in ridge.

OT: yes, brutally hot in SETX right now. Glad they are in the pads and not me!

[KWT]

It looks like a good deal stronger on the 18z at least in terms of the Vort map anyway.

[Ivanhater]

18z Canadian has a strong reflection

[Steve]

Yeah, that's a lot stronger. NAM 500mb 18Z shows a brief stall right before landfall along with some intensification. Shows up pretty well in the simulated radar loop as well:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

The CMC looks very wet in SE LA thats for sure on that CMC model, not too impressive mind you in terms of the surface reflection, probably a very wet TD.

[ronjon]

18z models coming in stronger on intensity with the NAM sub-1000 mb, CMC, and GFS stronger now at less than 1008 mb. Need to watch the trends here as these type of systems can kind of sneek up on the models. Have to keep an eye on HWRF and GFDL 18z runs too. Lots of untapped heat potential and plenty of mositure with the old front.

[BigA]

18Z WRF (from myfox weather site) is Way more bullish than the 12Z. It has the storm "make like Farragut" (head to Mobile Bay) in 72 hours.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

[Dean4Storms]

HWRF 18Z looks like near Mobile then a hook eastward across the FL Panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL is aggressive

[Ivanhater]

WRF

[TwisterFanatic]

Its not good news that almost all models are trending stronger and westward...

[KWT]

I'm guessing the models are latching onto the fact it probably already has a circulation, which is obviously going to help to get this one going.

GFDL looks like it pulls a Humberto, then loses the plot overland.