WPAC: Ex DIANMU

[supercane]

Continuing tonight's theme, ASCAT missed system to E.

[supercane]

Repositioned to be closer to exposed circulation seen on earlier vis. 6Z analysis from NRL KML file:

Tropical Cyclone 96W

07 Aug 2010 0600Z
Location: 20.9 124.4
Winds: 20 knots
Central Pressure: 1007 hPa

[dexterlabio]

TPPN10 PGTW 070611

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (NE OF LUZON)

B. 07/0532Z

C. 21.0N

D. 124.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC SHEARS 35NM FROM
CNVCTN YIELDING 3.5 DT. DT UNREPRESENATIVE. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO
PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/0454Z 20.8N 124.6E MMHS


ROSS

[theavocado]

New outlook, same text. Guess it's because they just issued the TCFA less than 4 hr ago.

I think they only reissue the text and warning area every 24 hours. I've never noticed them updating before that, which has led to confusion on my behalf when the picture I was looking at clearly didn't match what they wrote. I always forget to see how old the bulletin is.

[supercane]

Microwave consistent with vis exposed center.

[KWT]

The ECM still suggesting it slowly moves and then steadily gets picked up towards the north hitting SW S.Korea as quite a strong system. The 0z ECM probably has the strongest run its produced yet this time round.

[StormingB81]

this thing they said strengthed quick to TD and looks like it just stayed there. I dont really know though.

[StormingB81]

to the untraining eye it looks like it maybe trying to organize a little bit better tonight...

[dexterlabio]

Lots of rain clouds stretching from South China Sea to Philippine Sea. If shear relaxed a bit more along these regions, tropical cyclone formation would be quick, but it's quite interesting that the convection across this wide region never ceased to exist.

[Chacor]

JMA at 1200 UTC:

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 20.7N 124.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[oaba09]

It's raining here right now.....The wind is also stronger than usual..........This is definitely the effect of the enhanced monsoon w/c is a result of this system....

[StormingB81]

it is the clearest its been in the last 3 days..dunno if that is good or not

[StormingB81]

ANy forcasting on the shear if it may ease or not?


I just want to add it looks like it is strengthening....

[P.K.]

Also upgraded by the CMA to add to PAGASA who are warning on this as a TD:

** WTPQ20 BABJ 071200 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 04 INITIAL TIME 071200 UTC
00HR 20.9N 124.5E 1000HPA 15M/S
P12HR NNW 5KM/H
P+24HR 22.9N 123.6E 996HPA 18M/S=

[supercane]

From NRL KML file, shows slow N movement:

Tropical Cyclone 96W

07 Aug 2010 1800Z
Location: 21.6 123.6
Winds: 20 knots
Central Pressure: 1007 hPa

07 Aug 2010 1200Z
Location: 21.2 123.7
Winds: 20 knots
Central Pressure: 1007 hPa

[supercane]

From PAGASA:



Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIVE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "ESTER"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Saturday, 07 August 2010
Tropical Depression ESTER has maintained its strength as it continues to move along the Balintang Channel.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 30 km South of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 20.2°N, 122.0°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 11 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday evening:
230 km West of Basco, Batanes
Monday evening:
500 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Batanes Group of Islands
Cagayan
Babuyan Island
Calayan Islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Abra
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Northern Isabela
None None

Tropical Depression "Ester" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over Luzon and Visayas.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 and areas over the Western sections of Central and Southern Luzon and Western Visayas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

[KWT]

You can see the turning on the IR right now. The convection is very strong on the southern side as well helping things out.

Pretty much is a proper TD now probably.

[supercane]

JMA 18Z analysis below. Still no TC warning issued, meaning no expectation from JMA for intensification to TS within 24hr.

WWJP25 RJTD 071800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 982 HPA
AT 55N 171E BERING SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 55N 171E TO 54N 174E 53N 177E.
WARM FRONT FROM 53N 177E TO 51N 179E 49N 179W.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 177E TO 46N 169E 44N 164E 44N 159E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 44N 159E TO 44N 155E 43N 148E 43N 141E 41N 135E
40N 130E 37N 125E 36N 120E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 21.0N 124.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 38N 141E 42N 143E
48N 154E 60N 165E 60N 180E 35N 180E 36N 161E 38N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 31N 163E SSW 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 18N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 34N 148E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 47N 149E EAST 10 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[supercane]

T numbers from SSD holding steady at 1.5:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/2032 UTC 21.3N 124.6E T1.5/1.5 96W
07/1432 UTC 20.9N 124.9E T1.5/1.5 96W

[supercane]

Latest update from PAGASA shifts to northerly motion and drops some storm signals:



Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "ESTER"
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Saturday, 08 August 2010
Tropical Depression ESTER has changed course and is now moving towards the Southern islands of Japan.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 90 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 21.0°N, 122.6°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: North Northeast at 11 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Monday morning:
320 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes or at
450 km Southwest of Okinawa, Japan
Tuesday morning:
590 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes or at
190 km Southwest of Okinawa, Japan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Batanes Group of Islands
Cagayan
Babuyan Island
Calayan Islands
None None

Tropical Depression "Ester" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over Luzon and Visayas.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 and areas over the Western sections of Central and Southern Luzon and Western Visayas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.