ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[Vortex]

I think they will initiate advisories this evening(technically its already a td) and I'm execting Colin during the course of he day tomorrow.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

2PM forecast

Tropical Depression
24 Hours->99%
48 Hours->99%
72 Hours->99%
1 Week->99%

Tropical Storm
24 Hours-50%
48 Hours-95%
72 Hours->99%
1 Week->99%

Hurricane
24 Hours-<1%
48 Hours-<1%
72 Hours-40%
1 Week-95%

-Hurricane Andrew

[JTE50]

It's not that close to TD, because to be a TD it has to be free of the ITCZ. It's starting to break the ITCZ behind it, but it's normally about a day from breaking the ITCZ behind that it breaks the ITCZ in front and earns a cyclone designation.

Reread the latest from the NHC and review Ivan's origination http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/di ... .001.shtml?

[artist]

Lookin' good.

One question though.

You CAN smack me for this.

Is a HIGH a Ridge or a Trough?

(I forgot my Hurricane Alex R/T lesson)

here is the NWS sites glossary page for you which can really help with questions like that. Hope it helps -
http://www.weather.gov/glossary/

[Hurricane Andrew]

Lookin' good.

One question though.

You CAN smack me for this.

Is a HIGH a Ridge or a Trough?

(I forgot my Hurricane Alex R/T lesson)

here is the NWS sites glossary page for you which can really help with questions like that. Hope it helps -
http://www.weather.gov/glossary/

Thanks. now THAT will help me a real lot!!!

[KWT]

Yeah Ivan was fairly unusual but was a very southerly system indeed...

Low level circulation probably will be setting up around 11/36 would be my punt right now, from there it moves WNW towards the NE Caribbean region but whether it makes it is still too early.

[Nimbus]

Looking at the visible loop you can see the low level clouds dropping south ahead of the wave as the high cirrus drifts north. Trying to guess where they might initialize a TD isn't an exact science but near 10N doesn't buy Florida much safety. Can't say I would want to see this thing ramp up to a cat 5 on the hopes that it would recurve as a shipping hazard.

Any news on the ridge/Tutt from hell modeling?

[cheezyWXguy]

I dont think this will be upgraded today. That deep convection has definitely faded and its not looking that great to me right now. I do see low cloud movements that would suggest at least an llc in development right now so its definitely close, but I would imagine they'd wait till tomorrow morning to upgrade.

[Weatherfreak000]

If you use the MIMIC tool, you'll see the circulation as of 1500 UTC was incredibly well defined. I would say that signature alone warrants TD classification. This should be a relatively easy call for the NHC today unless the storm weakens.

[Hurricane Andrew]

If you use the MIMIC tool, you'll see the circulation as of 1500 UTC was incredibly well defined. I would say that signature alone warrants TD classification. This should be a relatively easy call for the NHC today unless the storm weakens.

COuld i have a link to that?

Thanks.

[Vortmax1]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
207 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010


.....THE MODELS DEVELOP A LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH TODAY IS
STARTING NEAR 9N 35W...WITH A SPREAD IN FORECAST POSITIONS AMONG
THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GROWING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THE FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC 850-500 MB RIDGE DAYS 6-7 SHOULD LEAD TO SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION. SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS
FOR DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.

[Weatherfreak000]

If you use the MIMIC tool, you'll see the circulation as of 1500 UTC was incredibly well defined. I would say that signature alone warrants TD classification. This should be a relatively easy call for the NHC today unless the storm weakens.

COuld i have a link to that?

Thanks.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

[Hurricane Andrew]

Thanks for the link. Now i can get all the maps!

[Aquawind]

Some deep convection near the possible forming center near 36.5W 10.5N

[KWT]

Ok I think the key to the track may well be the forward speed of this system...

If it does race westwards quickly enough and gains enough longitude then the trough that digs down at 96-120hrs is going to be strong enough to cause a possible recurve...If not, then it'll only get the job half done.

[Weatherfreak000]

Some deep convection near the possible forming center near 36.5W 10.5N

At first this morning I was concerned it may have been weakening but sure enough the convection is sustained right over the center I see on MIMIC. I would say this thing has been organizing continuously for a day. If anything, 91L may be trying to life NW like the models indicate and contract, which would help its structure.

[KWT]

Vortmax, that is very key, this one is a tough call because its a fine line for sure, if it gains enough latitude now and gets far enough west, its a dead cert for a recurve...IF it takes its time and maybe not strengthen too rapidly then the NE Caribbean and the states down the line is at real threat.

However its getting a real classic look, could strengthen rapidly...

[Javlin]

9N 36W looks like the most likely location ATM to me at least and if that is the case a little more W and N before some deeper development may occur.Then we may see were ridge is at.

[Hugo1989]

I think the model will not be very accurate about this system. It is a system very different from the others we've seen this season.

[CrazyC83]

Right now I am not sold on any recurve. My thinking is that it will not gain latitude and stay in the deep tropics. The Bermuda High seems too far away to affect the system.