ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS

cheezyWXguy · #161 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:15 pm

I still remember in 07 when we were dealing with Felix, I think it was the euro that had it as an open wave just about its entire life and the gfs wasnt too much better..

#162 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:16 pm

High resolution isn't even traceable, but if we do have a system, the ridge placement is interesting. Similar to the GFS I believe at this time frame

KWT · #163 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:24 pm

To be fair the models did well with Bonnie when they thought it'd remain an open wave (in truth it only held onto a closed low for a short amount of time.

12z ECM takes it through the Caribbean and totally kills it there, hmmm some very interesting solutions from the Global models, not sure why they are killing it off but hard to ignore the consensus with this!

#164 Postby **Blown Away** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:30 pm

Ivanhater wrote:High resolution isn't even traceable, but if we do have a system, the ridge placement is interesting. Similar to the GFS I believe at this time frame

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

Wouldn't that ridge placement suggest weakness along the SE CONUS?

#165 Postby **Fego** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:32 pm

Anyone can share the link for the UKMT page?. Thanks!

#166 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:36 pm

Ukie, north of the Islands but also develops the western caribbean system

ROCK · #167 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:37 pm

well ones thing is for sure its westward ho until development...none of the models have a good handle on it....

Islands really need to watch it..IMO....

KWT · #168 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:39 pm

Note that the system weakens as soon as it starts to lift out, I suspect the models have a shear zone to the north of the system...which once again lines up with the idea of a ULL diving down...

IF this system doesn't lift out like the models think then this could well become stronger then those models think.

Macrocane · #169 Postby **Macrocane** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 3:33 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro has again a stronger system tonight. I agree about a weaker system if it takes the northern path and a stronger one if it stays south like Dean or Felix did.

knotimpaired · #170 Postby **knotimpaired** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 4:31 pm

KWT wrote:Note that the system weakens as soon as it starts to lift out, I suspect the models have a shear zone to the north of the system...which once again lines up with the idea of a ULL diving down...

IF this system doesn't lift out like the models think then this could well become stronger then those models think.

My gut feeling is that 90L will kick the butt out of Puerto Rico.

I am not sure why, I just have this uneasiness about it.

K

KWT · #171 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 4:52 pm

18z GFS getting going now, out now to 36hrs and Eastern wave strengthening.

Riptide · #172 Postby **Riptide** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 4:57 pm

KWT wrote:18z GFS getting going now, out now to 36hrs and Eastern wave strengthening.

Trying to follow the movements of 90L but it seems useless. The current center dissipates but a new one forms west of the African wave, etc etc. It should be an interesting run as the vort is already established.

#173 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:04 pm

I don't see any development yet on the 18z run.

Yep, looks like the GFS is dropping it all together...

KWT · #174 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:08 pm

18z GFS can't seem to decide what region of Vorticity it wants to develop, it seems to be holding back the system during the period where conditions maybe thier most condusive in the MDR zone from the looks of things.

Riptide · #175 Postby **Riptide** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:11 pm

KWT wrote:18z GFS can't seem to decide what region of Vorticity it wants to develop, it seems to be holding back the system during the period where conditions maybe thier most condusive in the MDR zone from the looks of things.

I sense a GFS that is worse at predicting storm formation but better at forecasting storm intensity and track. We won't really get anything solid from this model until Sunday.

#176 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:15 pm

Starting to come together at 108 hours, but time frame keeps pushing back which makes me suspicious...

Conditions are favorable though

Let's see if it drops it

#177 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:17 pm

126 hours,,hmmm

Surface reflection still an open wave though

KWT · #178 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:17 pm

The GFS barely even shows a Vort reflection this run yet alone anything other then a moderate wave.

To be fair most models aren't much more keen on it either, so possibly Riptide the GFS is handling this one fine, or as you say the models may well be underestimating this system, we shall see!

Riptide · #179 Postby **Riptide** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:19 pm

KWT wrote:The GFS barely even shows a Vort reflection this run yet alone anything other then a moderate wave.

To be fair most models aren't much more keen on it either, so possibly Riptide the GFS is handling this one fine, or as you say the models may well be underestimating this system, we shall see!

Reminds me of the ukmet combined with typical gfs fail. :lol:

Riptide · #180 Postby **Riptide** » Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:23 pm

Thar she blows at hr 144!

ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS

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