WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[dexterlabio]

It looks like the center will pass over or just south of Manila.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is that the "eye" of Conson off the northern coast of Catanduanes?

I'll be going home on or before 6pm (Manila time) today, will Conson's inner bands already be reaching Metro Manila at that time? I might have to contend with Conson's fury once I travel back home this afternoon.

[Chacor]

No, it's not. Conson's centre is under deep convection.

[dexterlabio]

PAGASA may want to amend their previous bulletin. Don't they think the center of the typhoon has stayed much on the lower latitude than predicted earlier, and it is quite impossible for it to track abruptly on a northwest direction, taking into consideration that the STR above the storm remains strong at the mean time?

I'm a college student right here. Local authorities would suspend the college classes if and only if the eye of the typhoon is right in front of our own eyes. If PAGASA anticipates this typhoon to hit the northern provinces, and JTWC forecast (which tracks Conson to Central and Southern Luzon) turns out right, what will happen to all those students out here later in the afternoon? It is already rainy here in the metro, and I wish we can make it to our homes once the core of Conson nears our area.

I'm actually thinking of letting my employees go home early......what do you think? One of my employees live in the Bulacan area so if the JTWC forecast holds true, her area will be hit directly....

I wouldn't trust PAGASA's forecast as of now. Business day is important though, but if Conson would be near Metro Manila this afternoon, you may consider my advice to let them go after 12 noon.

[zaqxsw75050]

I missed Chacor's post... forget about this.

[dexterlabio]

No, it's not. Conson's centre is under deep convection.

So it is now approaching the Camarines coasts? If that's so, then my area will really get into trouble once it continues its west direction. :|

[dexterlabio]

I'm not sure if the shear is now affecting the circulation. The CDO still looks okay for me though.



I wish PAGASA and other local authorities will make some important decisions as of now.

[cycloneye]

Are there high mountains where the eye will make landfall?

[dexterlabio]

Are there high mountains where the eye will make landfall?

The land mass in Bicol is not that mountainous. Storms passing on or near Bicol usually maintains their strength, or weakens slightly. The area of Central Luzon is a plain land, except on the eastern side of it where there are some mountain ranges.

[Chacor]

PAGASA has upgraded to Typhoon Basyang.

[cycloneye]

Why JMA is the most slowest agency to upgrade?

[Typhoon10]

HKO is now predicting a track close to Sanya than to HK

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

[oaba09]

<Analyses at 13/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°20'(14.3°)
E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 14/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E119°40'(119.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E117°10'(117.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E113°55'(113.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[Chacor]

Why JMA is the most slowest agency to upgrade?

JMA issues its analyses 50 minutes after synoptic hour. Technically that's one of the fastest. NHC/CPHC/JTWC issue three hours after synoptic hour.

[Chacor]

<Analyses at 13/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°20'(14.3°)
E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 14/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E119°40'(119.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E117°10'(117.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E113°55'(113.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

The plain-text version of that is here: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TPQ20.RJTD

Easier to read.

[JTE50]

Okay, I never thought I'd see such -removed- in the WPac. A Cat 4 storm is not something to be wishing for.

Oh how I agree with Chacor.

I have been in only one CAT 4 - Hurricane Charley back in 2004 Punta Gorda, FL. The official write up from the NHC said the winds were near 130 knots (about 150 mph) at the time of landfall. I was on foot downtown with my cam and only the downwind side of a Dr.'s office to protect me. It is not something I want to experience again. Here is the clip of the action only 6 feet in front of me: http://www.extremestorms.com/charley.wmv

I shut off the cam at least 10 min. before the winds jacked up another 25 mph and the right side eyewall hit. When it did it became very bright and I thought I was going to get sucked out of my hiding spot. The rest of the story you can watch on the National Geographic Channel USA this winter.

There are 1, 2, & 3s and then there are the 4 & 5's. Just hope you are in an extra safe and strong structure when one of those hits.

[oaba09]

Conson is still moving westwards.......Looks like our area will most likely get hit....

[drdavisjr]

We're getting a nice, steady rain at our place in Quezon City.

[oaba09]

Based on JTWC's forecast, the eye of the system will make a landfall between 8 to 10 PM here........PAGASA has the windspeed at 120 kph...signal #3 has been raised in a couple of areas already...

[Chacor]

JMA have their satellite estimate at T4.5 now.

TCNA21 RJTD 130600
CCAA 13060 47644 CONSON(1002) 02145 11235 13244 245// 92813=

[oaba09]

Latest track from PAGASA....It's significantly different compared to the JTWC track...also, if we're gonna look at the current loops, it seems like the system is moving south of the PAGASA track...