ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Wobbles are crucial for these islands. Because of the west wobble barbuda is facing the southern eyewall.

Very True!! The response was more about overall motion though for those thinking it is now moving due west.

[artist]

here is the next image.. the eye is contracting... and convection wrapping around gave that wobble but still seems about 275 or 280..

so when is this wnw turn scheduled to happen? This could be big for the northern islands if it was to have already happened.

It's already moving WNW (285 deg).

thank you soooo much!

[Gustywind]

Be prepared in the Northern Leewards...

- SxmGIS - Hurricane Earl Strengthens; Island Remains Under Hurricane Watch; Finalize Preparations
By Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2010 20:13:08 -0400
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... rtin.shtml
News Release



Written by Roddy Heyliger, Government Information Service (GIS), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;



For Immediate Release: Sunday, August 29, 2010/EOC Advisory #2-8.00pm



EOC: Hurricane Earl Strengthens; Island remains under a Hurricane Warning; Finalize Preparations;



GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (GIS) – The Emergency Operations Center (EOC) met for a second time at 6.00pm to assess the situation and national preparations for the passing of Hurricane Earl.



Residents should have completed their preparations for the passing of the storm system.



At 5.00pm, according to the Weather Service, Hurricane Earl has strengthened with wind speeds near 85 miles per hour with higher gusts.



All national preparations have been taken by the various Emergency Support Functions (ESF) in preparation for the passing of the storm system. Key ESF departments will continue to make final preparations during the remainder of the evening.



Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate this evening around midnight. Closest point of approach will be at 8.00am on Monday morning when Hurricane Earl is forecasted to pass approximately 45 miles Northeast of Sint Maarten possibly as a Category 2 system. Tropical storm force winds are forecasted up until Monday evening.


Four inches of rain or more is expected and forecast to continue up to Monday afternoon.



Police Sub Station: A Police Substation will be opened at the Community Center in St. Peters this evening as well as at the Belvedere Community Center.



Trenches and Drains: The main trenches have been cleared and the main drains around the Ring Road have been cleared.



Garbage Bins: Garbage bins and any debris left around yards should be properly secured.



Ponds & Pumps: Water levels in the ponds are at an adequate level to accommodate additional rain water. The pumps are in standby mode to start pumping water from the pond into the ocean should this become necessary. The channel at the Great Bay Beach has also been opened.



Emergency Services: The Police, Fire and Ambulance Department are all on full alert and are ready to deal with any eventualities that should develop during the passing of Hurricane Earl.



Curfew: A strict curfew will be enforced at 12.00am tonight until further notice. Residents are requested to remain indoors until the all clear sign has been given by the EOC in the interests of personal and public safety.



Hurricane shelters: If necessary, hurricane shelters will be opened.



Road Closures: The following roads could be closed by the Police if the need arises with respect to street flooding, rock falls and storm surge; Zagersgut Road; L.B. Scott Road; Bishop Hill Road; Cake House Road; Point Blanche Road; and Beacon Hill Road. The Traffic Police as well as the Public Works Department will continue to monitor the situation with respect to the aforementioned roads. In the event the Beacon Hill Road has to be closed due to storm surge, for emergency purposes, the emergency gates at the airport will be opened by the relevant authorities to allow access (in and out) to the Beacon Hill residential area. Heavy equipment will be available to reopen any roads that are closed due to debris as Hurricane Earl passes the island.



The EOC will continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Earl very closely and will issue advisory notices via radio and the internet with respect to what further actions are required.



# # #



Roddy Heyliger

Sint Maarten Government Information Service (GIS)





Best regards,
Roddy Heyliger - BB pin 21437DBE

P.O.Box 945, Philipsburg, St. Maarten
Cell: 5204217-primary, 5816323-secondary

Public Relations & Communications
Secondary Email: roddyheyliger at yahoo.com

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[Aric Dunn]

What he said. Folks don't get caught up in the wobbles, you must look at the overall motion going back a good few hours!

again.. the wobbles in this case are important because the placement of the hurricane force winds... but yes wobbles not important for the 5 day forecast verification..

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 292356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 60.3W AT 30/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 85 NM E OF BARBUDA AND ABOUT 160 NM E OF ST. MARTIN MOVING
WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. EARL
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WNW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC
NEAR 24N58W. AS EARL MOVES BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 24N58W TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W...A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EASTERN AND 180 NM
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 56W-65W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.


...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

[CapeCod1995]

what's the percentage probability of a landfall from earl on cape cod?

[TheShrimper]

with all due respect, WNW is 293, not 285.....that matters alot here.

[Dean4Storms]

Actually if these wobbles continue to put Earl more westward they could mean a difference along the east coast down the line, but that is dependent on how far west and how sharp a curve Earl takes around the ridge!

[abajan]

here is the next image.. the eye is contracting... and convection wrapping around gave that wobble but still seems about 275 or 280..

so when is this wnw turn scheduled to happen? This could be big for the northern islands if it was to have already happened.

It's already moving WNW (285 deg).

Totally agree. This is very obvious from the radar loop above where the eye can clearly be seen moving in a west-northwesterly direction. I doubt Barbuda will be hit by the southern portion of the eye wall but residents there should be prepared for any eventuality and continue to monitor official forecasts. At any rate, they’re still in for lots of nasty weather.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[lester]

95 kts FL found by recon

[Gustywind]

Current Weather Conditions:
Vc Bird International Airport Antigua, Antigua and Barbuda
(TAPA) 17-07N 061-47W 10M

Conditions at Aug 29, 2010 - 08:00 PM EDTAug 29, 2010 -
Wind from the NW (310 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Showers during the past hour
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.77 in. Hg (1008 hPa)
ob TAPA 300000Z 31012KT 9999 RESH FEW012CB SCT016 OVC250 27/24 Q1008

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 8 PM (0) Aug 29 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) NW 14 showers during the past hour
7 PM (23) Aug 29 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.68 (1005) NW 14
6 PM (22) Aug 29 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.68 (1005) NW 13 light rain with thunder
5 PM (21) Aug 29 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.71 (1006) N 17 light rain with thunder
4 PM (20) Aug 29 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.71 (1006) WNW 9 light rain with thunder
3 PM (19) Aug 29 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.74 (1007) NNW 8 light rain with thunder
2 PM (18) Aug 29 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.77 (1008) NNW 14 light rain showers
1 PM (17) Aug 29 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) NNW 15
Noon (16) Aug 29 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) NW 12
11 AM (15) Aug 29 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) NNW 10
10 AM (14) Aug 29 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) N 10
9 AM (13) Aug 29 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) NNW 12
8 AM (12) Aug 29 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) N 9 showers during the past hour
7 AM (11) Aug 29 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) N 12 light rain showers
6 AM (10) Aug 29 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) NNE 10 showers in the vicinity
5 AM (9) Aug 29 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) N 7
4 AM (8) Aug 29 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) N 6
3 AM (7) Aug 29 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) N 7
2 AM (6) Aug 29 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) N 3
1 AM (5) Aug 29 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNW 5
Midnight (4) Aug 29 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) N 8 light rain showers
11 PM (3) Aug 28 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) N 7
10 PM (2) Aug 28 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) N 6
Oldest 9 PM (1) Aug 28 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) N 7

[Aric Dunn]

with all due respect, WNW is 293, not 285.....that matters alot here.

no...

http://climate.umn.edu/snow_fence/Compo ... table3.htm

[HurricaneBelle]

what's the percentage probability of a landfall from earl on cape cod?

The NHC has a product that answers this question, giving chances of getting 39 MPH winds, 57 MPH winds, and 74 MPH winds:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2046.shtml

[pcolaman]

Well guys the wobbles are going to play a big part in the out come of the long range forcast. If you figure that the wobbles for say could be the deciding factor of the the amount of miles to the left or to the right . The nhc alrdy has a cone that could be 250 miles off by the end of the track .So the wobbles will be a deciding factor overall of provabale land fall . IMO

[Gustywind]

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M

Conditions at Aug 29, 2010 - 08:40 PM EDTAug 29, 2010
Wind from the WSW (250 degrees) at 20 MPH (17 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Thunder in the vicinity
Light rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.71 in. Hg (1006 hPa)
ob TFFR 300040Z 25017KT 9999 VCTS -SHRA FEW015CB BKN026 BKN060 24/23 Q1006 TEMPO 500 +TSRA

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 8 PM (0) Aug 29 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.71 (1006) WSW 20 thunder in the vicinity; light rain showers
7 PM (23) Aug 29 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.71 (1006) SW 10 light rain with thunder
6 PM (22) Aug 29 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.74 (1007) W 16 rain with thunder
5 PM (21) Aug 29 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.77 (1008) W 12 thunder
4 PM (20) Aug 29 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.77 (1008) W 10 rain with thunder
3 PM (19) Aug 29 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) NW 12 rain with thunder
2 PM (18) Aug 29 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.74 (1007) WNW 17
1 PM (17) Aug 29 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.77 (1008) WNW 12
Noon (16) Aug 29 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) NW 15 rain showers
11 AM (15) Aug 29 86 (30) 78 (26) 29.83 (1010) NW 13
10 AM (14) Aug 29 87 (31) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) NW 13
9 AM (13) Aug 29 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) NW 10
8 AM (12) Aug 29 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) NNW 6
7 AM (11) Aug 29 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) Calm
6 AM (10) Aug 29 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) NNE 2
5 AM (9) Aug 29 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) N 3
4 AM (8) Aug 29 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) Variable 1
3 AM (7) Aug 29 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) Calm
2 AM (6) Aug 29 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) ENE 1
1 AM (5) Aug 29 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) Calm
Midnight (4) Aug 29 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) Calm
11 PM (3) Aug 28 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) W 2
10 PM (2) Aug 28 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Calm
Oldest 9 PM (1) Aug 28 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Variable 1

[Gustywind]

[sfwx]

Thinking about all of you in Earl's path. I think we all need to be a little more considerate when discussing the future path of Earl as our friends in the islands are being affected NOW.

Eric

[MGC]

True WNW is 292.5 degrees....so, Earl is moving just south of WNW...hurricane continues to look impressive on the satellite. All of you in the islands stay safe and God be with you......MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Still holding the westerly wobble..barbuda beginning to get into the heavy part..

[CronkPSU]

Shouldn't there be a page just for the weather conditions in the islands from Earl? That may help those who really need to know what is happening there!!

there is

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109178