ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Well since 5PM Codrington Barbuda upped their maximum wind estimate to hurricane force winds increasing to 60 to 80 mph. We should see at least a gust to Hurricane strength which will put an end to the debate of whether the islands get hurricane force winds.

yeah from the looks of this continued west motion for the last couple hours.. barbuda may make into the southern part of the eye if the motion keeps up...

[CronkPSU]

so at what longitude should i start worrying about this if I live in Central Florida...or worry about it for my friends in the Carolinas or the Northeast?

[supercane]

Latest radar from St Maarten:

[Aric Dunn]

Hurricane Earl 8:00pm postion & wind field. Map courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

Track shows the west motion and the south side is still strong and likely to get stronger before it gets to barbuda..

[artist]

here is the next image.. the eye is contracting... and convection wrapping around gave that wobble but still seems about 275 or 280..

so when is this wnw turn scheduled to happen? This could be big for the northern islands if it was to have alrady happened.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest radar from St Maarten:
[img]http://a.imageshack.us/img521/5563/earl2010083000earlstmar.png

here is the loop for that.. clearly a showing at least a short term west motion..

http://www.weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

[TwisterFanatic]

Latest radar from St Maarten:
http://a.imageshack.us/img521/5563/earl ... lstmar.png

It will interesting to see how close it gets to PR before making its northern turn. I hope it makes it turn soon so PR will be out of the strongest winds.

[TheShrimper]

Watch and see if your dog stands on his head while drinking a Budweiser, much like my bassett hound did 8 hours before Charley flexed his muscles. If that is the case, batten down the hatches my friend.

[bvigal]

Exactly, and the slight motion north of due west (say 275-285 deg) has allowed the storm to gain a full degree (1.0 deg) of latitude in the last 18 hours:

At 2am sunday, the latitude was 16.7N
At 8pm sunday, the latitude is 17.7N

How significant has this just north-of-west motion been? The center of the storm was south in latitude of every island in the hurricane warning earlier this morning. Now, the center is north of every main island in the hurricane warning except for the following:

St Martin (18.05N)
Tortola (18.45N)
Anguilla (18.2N)

The eye is now north of the latitude of the following:

Antigua (17.12N)
Barbuda (17.63N) - it will be close enough to be in the eye wall
Montserrat (16.74N)
St. Kitts (17.3N)
Nevis (17.14N)
Saba (17.63N)
St. Eusatius (17.48N)


The significance of that is experiencing sustained tropical storm force winds vs. being in the eyepath or on the stronger north side (in terms of wind radii) of a strengthening hurricane. Huge implication in terms of damage potential As of 5pm, the wind radii of hurricane force winds shows that being north of the eye is where the worst winds will be, and where those damaging winds extend further north:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.


quote="Aric Dunn" quote="jinftl"Since he is gaining a bit of latitude with each advisory, I agree with you. Behaving as forecast....no sharp nw turn was forecast for the next 36 hours or so...rather, a slow, 2-steps-forward-1-wobble-back west to wnw motion is taking shape.

Wobble Watch 2010 is in full effect - when you have a thread confirming a wnw motion followed by a thread stating that the motion is due west...we are in wobble watch mode! The storm coming into radar range will help clarify that....

It's pretty evident that Earl is beginning to stair step around the SW edge of the ridge

your missing the difference in this case.. when out in the middle of the ocean wobble watching is pointless.. but right now very important...

Wait a minute! This track has been forecast for 2 days. It has never said the eye would be over the islands, but that it would pass to the north. The SE quadrant will extend winds further than the southwest. The hurricane warning is for a chance that a place will experience hurricane conditions, it makes sense to me the order and level of which these have been issued.

[Aric Dunn]

so at what longitude should i start worrying about this if I live in Central Florida...or worry about it for my friends in the Carolinas or the Northeast?

here in central florida we are at about 28n ... and start worrying about Florida if earl decides not too turn NW as is forecast..

[cycloneye]

Latest radar from St Maarten:
http://a.imageshack.us/img521/5563/earl ... lstmar.png

It will interesting to see how close it gets to PR before making its northern turn. I hope it makes it turn soon so PR will be out of the strongest winds.

To clear PR,the eye has to be above 18.5N.

[wxman57]

here is the next image.. the eye is contracting... and convection wrapping around gave that wobble but still seems about 275 or 280..

so when is this wnw turn scheduled to happen? This could be big for the northern islands if it was to have already happened.

It's already moving WNW (285 deg).

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 07, 2010083000, , BEST, 0, 177N, 604W, 75, 972

[CapeCod1995]

I live on Cape Cod and I'm within the projected path...should I be worried about a hurricane?

[Gustywind]

[Dean4Storms]

here is the next image.. the eye is contracting... and convection wrapping around gave that wobble but still seems about 275 or 280..

so when is this wnw turn scheduled to happen? This could be big for the northern islands if it was to have already happened.

It's already moving WNW (285 deg).

What he said. Folks don't get caught up in the wobbles, you must look at the overall motion going back a good few hours!

[Aric Dunn]

here is the next image.. the eye is contracting... and convection wrapping around gave that wobble but still seems about 275 or 280..

so when is this wnw turn scheduled to happen? This could be big for the northern islands if it was to have already happened.

It's already moving WNW (285 deg).

not according to the recon fixes.. the last hour or 2 has been more 275/280... but overall 6 hour motion is likely 285..

[Dean4Storms]

I live on Cape Cod and I'm within the projected path...should I be worried about a hurricane?

I would prepare to the extent you can and hope for the best. Stay up to date on the official forecasts from the NHC and your local NWS!!

[Normandy]

Wobbles are crucial for these islands. Because of the west wobble barbuda is facing the southern eyewall.