ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[myred]

looks that way, I would also say that maybe the trough is not pulling it like it should.

[abajan]

Amazing looking hurricane, but obviously going to be a massive threat to Bermuda down the line...

That may well be the case. In the first chart below, the the last dotted line shows Igor’s eye passing over Bermuda or slightly to its east. However, when the track is smoothed out (second graphic), the eye actually passes to the west of Bermuda, placing the island on the stronger side of Igor’s circulation:




The preceding text and the second graphic is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheBurn]

[Crostorm]

[KWT]

Yeah that would be the worst case, for it to pass just to the west of the island. Any EWRC will just fatten out the systems wind field yet further which isn't a great thing, esp if it can't shed the eyewalls totally and it ends up with multiple eyewalls as some systems do...that leads to very large systems usually...

[cwachal]

looks like the EWRC is going pretty fast ... outer eyewall looks pretty well established and inner one almost gone

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks annular this morning.

[KWT]

IMO it doesn't even look close to annular though I can see why you'd say that as well to be fair!

Once the EWRC is done we'll see this systems wind field expand yet further...can't wait for recon tommorow to finally get in there and sample this beast!

[plasticup]

Looks annular this morning.

SHIPS disagrees:

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/15/10 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

Yes, it has a bit of symmetry, but the strong banding gives it away.

[KWT]

Thanks for putting that up PC, it does have strong feeder bands, though as I said I can see why people could think that it was a little annular looking given the bands don't seem to be seperated very much from the main core, probably a function of the EWRC.

[plasticup]

That's true, and convection in the northwest quadrant looks pretty smooth, which would be an indicator if it continued all the way around. But a lot of the other features aren't there, including the large eye.

Curious presentation, for sure.

[KWT]

The only thing I'd say is it may well look more like it once the EWRC finishes and the eye expands a little.

[brunota2003]

How big is that outer eye on the microwave image? Looks to me to be a good 50 miles across.

[dexterlabio]

Igor looks a bit crappy as it undergoes EWRC.

[HURAKAN]

EWRC

[plasticup]

Secondary eyewall looks much better than it did just one hour ago.

[Cyclone1]

I think we need to refine the definition of annular to be vastly more specific. Or just get rid of the phrase.

[x-y-no]

Looks annular this morning.

Not even close. The band to the east is clearly feeding into to new eyewall. See the microwave image above.

[KWT]

Thats a very large eye and if it can shed the inner eyewall totally its going to have a very large wind Radius away from the center.

Probably won't take too long before it gets done with the EWRC if this continues, inner eyewall nearly.

[Evil Jeremy]

Just to clarify, I know that Igor isn't annular, but I do think it looks annular, with "looks" being the operative word. I would say it *looks* more like an annular hurricane than a standard banding hurricane.