ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[KWT]

Oh I agree AFM, I was just trying to think of any reason why they wouldn't upgrade.

If they upgraded Danny last year, then they really do need to upgrade this one.

IMO may see some slight strengthening but 45-50kts probably is going to be right unless it does burst overnight and drag the LLC under the center.

[cycloneye]

The NHC site has not updated since 4:28 PM EDT Hmmm. Look up where it says last update.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[srainhoutx]

I'm seeing TS Warnings in Bermuda...

http://www.weather.bm/forecastWarningsExtended.asp

[Macrocane]

Usually we would have an advisory at this time, maybe it will be out a little later than expected or they will issue a special advisory after recon mission is over, but I agree it has never looked that good so it needs to be upgraded.

[HURAKAN]

737
WTNT24 KNHC 052058
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 66.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[TheBurn]

[Iune]

That's a good image; where did you get it from?

[cycloneye]

The NHC site has not updated since 4:28 PM EDT Hmmm. Look up where it says last update.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Here is why;

INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.

[RL3AO]

INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.

[TheBurn]

That's a good image; where did you get it from?

http://www.met.psu.edu

[Ivanhater]

Edit..looked a gusts

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Disco - Colin

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds. ... &node=KNHC

[RL3AO]

Public outlook - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT4
Discussion http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCDAT4
Forecast - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCMAT4

[HURAKAN]

The releasing of the advisory was delayed because they were calling Bermuda and the governor has an iPhone 4 and couldn't get to him. LOL .. JK

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Wow, still the NHC site is out since 4:28 PM EDT. It has to be a major failure on the net.

[KWT]

Hmmm may not be a total fish afterall, Bermuda may just get a direct hit out of this....though they will probably find this one a breeze compared to what they sometimes get!

[Fego]

It's back!!... hope this image do not break any Storm2k rule.

At the end, the mets at the NHC were not crazy with the redevelopment outlook.

[Fego]

Hmmm may not be a total fish afterall, Bermuda may just get a direct hit out of this....though they will probably find this one a breeze compared to what they sometimes get!

May be they will get Colin stronger side if not a direct impact. May be is time to look for those Bermuda web cams.

[KWT]

The NHC nailed redevelopment, actually occured a little sooner then expected!

If the LLC was to totally tuck in with the convection, could quite quickly see it ramp upto 55-60kts given the current presentation.