ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Looks like the center is scooting under a new batch of convection, perhaps shear has let up some?

[MGC]

Looks like Colin part 2....I'm gonna guess upgrade to 40KTS TS soon......MGC

[supercane]

The sat pic on google earth is delayed, so the picture is not lining up with reality.

Or it may very well be reality if Colin is not vertically stacked.

[supercane]

Looks like the center is scooting under a new batch of convection, perhaps shear has let up some?

[KWT]

The shear is bordering un/favourable, when the circulation scoots under the convection then it appears the shear eases a little but equally its a fine line for sure between the favourable and unfavourable levels.

Still looks like we will have TS Colin agaun soon...Great call by the NHC!
Wxman57 is going to have to do some praising

[HURAKAN]

Colin is a victim of a world without QuikSCAT

[supercane]

The sat pic on google earth is delayed, so the picture is not lining up with reality.

Actually the source for my overlay is pretty recent (1845Z). The question was whether the center was near where Hurakan originally identified it in his "center found" post (L #1) or if it were closer to L #2 given the backing of the wind seen NE of L#1. I think it will be more near L #2, and that is also near the 18Z best track position. We'll await the VDM.



Edited to add pic, change veering to backing

[HURAKAN]

Guess who's bursting!!

[Air Force Met]

Guess who's bursting!!

Yep. Wont take much for the LLC to get pulled under that burst...but then it also won't be long until it gets sheared out from under it again...

[KWT]

Yeah exactly AFM, a classic borderline system that has almost a split personality. Still these types of systems only tend to need 12-18hrs to ramp upto 55-60kts usually, so we will see.

Not exactly the most defined of centers at least at the level recon is flying at but we will see.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

the best track hasn't been updated, so I guess no upgrade.

I have seen systems upgraded on weak SW winds, so if it's not upgraded, I don't know what to say.

[Aric Dunn]

the best track hasn't been updated, so I guess no upgrade.

I have seen systems upgraded on weak SW winds, so if it's not upgraded, I don't know what to say.

ummm if they dont upgrade there must be some serious pieces of data we are not privy too.. lol

[summersquall]

I suggest his thread be renamed "ATL: Tropical Storm formerly known and perhaps soon to be known again as Colin - Discussion" .

[tolakram]

I think they'll upgrade at 5pm. Plane going for one more pass to verify center position and possibly condition, then most likely they'll pull the trigger.

[KWT]

the best track hasn't been updated, so I guess no upgrade.

I have seen systems upgraded on weak SW winds, so if it's not upgraded, I don't know what to say.

ummm if they dont upgrade there must be some serious pieces of data we are not privy too.. lol

If it doesn't get upgraded its probably because of the ciruclation is still very weak indeed...but to be honest with you I see no reason not to upgrade.

[A1A]

Should there be a CODE RED update on this thread?

[Air Force Met]

If it doesn't get upgraded its probably because of the ciruclation is still very weak indeed...but to be honest with you I see no reason not to upgrade.

The LLC is is plenty strong enough for an upgrade. They have to upgrade. If they don't...well then...I would be just speechless. I would be without speech.

[RL3AO]

Its a tropical storm. It was probably one 12 hours ago and maybe one 18 hours ago.

[TwisterFanatic]

I must say i doubted the NHC, but it looks like they have hit it dead on with the weakening and then the regeneration. This is the best Colin has look since his evolution.