ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Danny MD]

If it stalls, would the current cone/track have to be thrown out?

Where would we be talking about area wise for a landfall on the US if it were to stall?

[LowndesCoFire]

Forecast track calls for some serious slowing...is that going to happen anytime soon?

[Evil Jeremy]

If it stalls, would the current cone/track have to be thrown out?

Where would we be talking about area wise for a landfall on the US if it were to stall?

Stalling would indicate that a turn to the north is starting, so its all about when. If it slows now, then we can assume it will miss the EC.

[Aric Dunn]

if it misses the trough then it could stall

And just hack its way west from PR to Cuba? Or would it even dip into the Caribbean Sea?

well the Upper trough near Cuba will likely get it to go north enough so that the gulf is out.. I would say near hatteras between berumda.. or the upper trough just does not turn it .. then thats fair game..

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If it stalls, would the current cone/track have to be thrown out?

Where would we be talking about area wise for a landfall on the US if it were to stall?

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

In a nutshell yes, everything would be thrown into chaos. As for where exactly Earl would end up, I honestly couldn't guess. Would depend on where he stalls, and how strong the nearby high is at the time.

[tailgater]

400-850mb steering

300-850 steering

[HURAKAN]

LOCATION...17.6N 59.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

[TexasF6]

I don't see Earl missing the US as his westward motion continues...we must hope the recon data ingests and shows somthing more certain, otherwise, East Coast folks better make their preps, especially since it has been a long, long time since they had something of the predicted magnitude of Earl threatening. God Bless our island friends!!!! stay safe!!!

[Ivanhater]

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

[Evil Jeremy]

or the upper trough just does not turn it .. then thats fair game..

And whats the chance of that happening?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aric Dunn]

yeah according to the steering the thing should never turn wnw... but apparently the upper trough near Cuba is acting like a wind on a sail and the low to midlevel ridge is an outboard motor. problem is the forecast calls for the wind in the sail to be the main steering force.. lol ...

[Brent]

[ColinDelia]

@ ColinDelia: I'm seeing deeper convection that T4, but not the organization of T5. So... T4.5? 77ish knots?

There are all kinds of rules for the Dvorak technique that go beyond just comparing the pictures but it does give a rough idea of how to identify whether a storm is strengthening or weakening. There are a lot of subtleties in the literature below worth learning IMO.

Some of the best papers IMO::

Original Dvorak Paper
ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Publi ... k_1984.pdf

Excellent synopsis. Similar to original paper but shorter and to the point
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/wmovl/v ... nglish.ppt

Dvorak Technique
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/06velden.pdf

[Aric Dunn]

or the upper trough just does not turn it .. then thats fair game..

And whats the chance of that happening?

good question I did not even see the upper trough as being a player... mostly because I did not notice it until the disscusion last night saying it was what is supposed to turn it.. lol and i did not notice it because its weak small and barely noticeable on water vapor. I say it would have as much of a influence as the models are calling for but could be wrong.. lol

[TheBurn]

[abajan]

The wind directions recorded here over the past 24 hours is a sure indication of a cyclone passing not too far to our north:



Our winds are usually east-northeasterly to southeasterly.
At Grantley Adams Airport, planes have been arriving and departing via Runway 27 all day. (They usually use the opposite direction: Runway 09)

[Raebie]

Did they just move the cone further east?

[Gustywind]

Not much latitude gain

[OuterBanker]

Just got back from swimming all afternoon on what has got to be one of the most beautiful days here ever. 82, breeze from the ne, 80 water temp, 6 ft seas (I on the other hand was in a 86 degree pool).

It really is hard to realize that the weather could get bad later in the week.

I see that a lot of mets have dropped by giving some good news to the islands. Mainly that they probably won't get hurricane force winds.

We up here are still getting mixed reports. Mostly offshore enough to avoid any hurricane force winds, but probably some ts winds. Some mets are saying that we should check our hurricane supplies just in case there is a shift west.

Looks like all the models are still keeping it far offshore, but I did see the Canadian and it had a rather startling shift west (I know to take that model with a grain of salt).

What I'm looking for is some good news from the mets here.